Maryland Terrapins Preview | Expert Predictions & Best Bets

Headman Mike Locksley has done well with his second chance as a head coach. The DC native has led Maryland to three-straight winning seasons, and the Terps have won eight games in each of the past two campaigns (best two-year stretch since 2002-03) despite going a combined 0-6 against Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. A fourth consecutive winning season would be their best stretch since the 1980s (82-85) when Bobby Ross was the head coach and Boomer Esiason was their star QB. That was the last time they made it to four straight bowl games.

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Maryland Terrapins Preview

2023 Record: 8-5 (4-5); Big Ten Finish: 4th in B1G East

A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | PFF: No. 35 | SP+: No. 46

Head Coach: Mike Locksley (6th Year) | Record: 29-33 | 31-59 Overall

Co-Offensive Coordinator: Josh Gattis (2nd Year), Kevin Sumlin (2nd Year)

Co-Defensive Coordinator: Brian Williams (3rd Year; 6th w/ UM), Aazaar Abdul-Rahim (1st Year)

Maryland Terrapins Futures Odds (FanDuel)

National Championship Odds: +50000 | CFB Playoff Odds: +2500

B1G Championship Odds: +15000 | Win 6+ Games: -170

Win 10+ Games: +1180 | Undefeated Regular Season: +33000

Regular Season Wins: OVER 6.5 +116 | UNDER 6.5 -142

Maryland Preview: Why You Should Be Bullish

Believe it or not, it’s their defense. Who saw that coming three years ago? Maryland has significantly improved in the past two seasons since Brian Williams was hired as defensive coordinator. He’s built up their depth and played to individual player’s strengths. They return 66.2 percent of their production on defense (42nd in the country). Once a weakness, the front seven is the best they’ve had in years, with a troika of 300-pounders rotating upfront and LB Ruben Hyppolite II cleaning things up. Slot corner Glendon Miller is a stud, safety Dante Trader Jr. brings the wood, and All-MAC performer Jalen Huskey helps make up for their losses at cornerback.

Maryland Preview: Why You Should Be Bearish

For the first time since 2019, Locksley’s first season back at Maryland, it’s quarterback. That’s also the last time they didn’t go into the season with Taulia Tagovailoa as QB1. Taking over for the Big Ten’s all-time leading passer will be NC State transfer MJ Morris or Tagovailoa’s backup Billy Edwards, who is a much better runner than passer. I like Edwards’s toughness, but he struggles with his accuracy (6- 20 passing in bowl win). Both are suspect passers. Maryland will take a significant step back as a passing offense, considered the team’s strength during their three-year run. It’s too bad because their pass catchers (Kaden Prather, Tai Felton, and TE Preston Howard) are explosive players.

Maryland Breakout Player: TE Preston Howard

I was tempted to go with former Tennessee Vol sophomore DT Jordan Phillips, but Preston Howard has too much upside, even though it’s unclear who will get him the football. A dual-threat quarterback in high school, Howard was recruited as an athlete and was a significant get for the Terps to keep him home. Despite being a three-star recruit, Howard had offers from Michigan, Penn State, and Auburn. Long (6’4”) and athletic, Howard appeared in 13 games as a redshirt freshman last season, where he flashed his star potential and ability to make the highlight real.

Maryland X-Factor: The Offensive Line

It’s not just Taulia Tagovailoa that must be replaced. The Terps return only 35.9 percent of their offensive production, ranked 123rd in the country. They did make a couple of crucial additions via the transfer portal in tackle Alan Herron (shorter), guard Aliou Bah (Georgia), and center Josh Kaltenberger (Purdue), who are all projected starters as the Terps must replace their entire offensive line from a year ago. Holdovers guard Kyle Long (six starts) and tackle Conor Fagan (four) do have some starting experience. How this bunch comes together will decide how this Terps team will go. The run-blocking left much to be desired last year and will need to improve in 2024.

Maryland Schedule Analysis

Ohio State and Michigan are off the schedule, but the Terps add Oregon (road) and USC (home), so it is slightly easier but close to a wash. They close the season at Penn State, who will likely have something to play for. Maryland should sweep their out-of-conference slate of Connecticut, Virginia (road), and Villanova and will likely be favored in their first six games. It’s the tale of two schedules, and if they don’t start the season at least 5-1, they could be in trouble. In addition to USC, Oregon, and PSU, they play Iowa and at Minnesota in the back half.

Maryland Prediction: OVER/UNDER 6.5 Wins

What Maryland should do and what Maryland does are two different things. As good as last season was, the Terps lost to five-win Illinois at home (13-point favorite) and at Northwestern (14.5-point favorite) as double-digit favorites. They’ve been known to play with their food in games they should win easily and don’t have Taulia Tagovailoa to bail them out. Even with an improved defense in 2023, Maryland was 1-5 when they didn’t score at least 31 points (7-0 when they did), with a unit that scored the most points (419) since 2010. They should win six or seven games, and their track record says the Terps are more likely to give one away than to steal a win, which is why my lean is towards the under, especially with major questions at quarterback and offensive line.

The Terps will likely go 3-0 out of conference, making UNDER 4.5 conference wins an even more enticing bet than the overall season win total. Maryland can hit seven wins and still go under their B1G wins.

Maryland Preseason Pick

UNDER 6.5 (-130 @ DraftKings)

Maryland Best Bet

UNDER 4.5 Conference Wins (-165 @DraftKings)

B1G Previews: Iowa | Michigan | Oregon | Penn State | Rutgers | USC

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