NCAAF · 1 year ago

Penn State Nittany Lions Preview | Expert Predictions & Best Bets

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

Penn State Nittany Lions Preview | Expert Predictions & Best Bets

Stop me if you’ve heard this before…of all the teams that have yet to make the College Football Playoff, no team would have benefitted more than the Penn State Nittany Lions had a 12-team format been in place. James Franklin’s teams have won double-digit games in five of the past eight seasons, including four top-ten finishes. More of the same in 2024 should make for a breakthrough season in Happy Valley. Will just making the CFP be enough?

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Penn State Nittany Lions Preview

2023 Record: 10-3 (7-2) | Big Ten Finish: 3rd in B1G East

A.P. Poll: No. 8 | Coaches Poll: No. 9 | PFF: No. 8 | SP+: No. 6

Head Coach: James Franklin (11th Year) | Record: 88-39 | 112-54 Overall

Offensive Coordinator: Andy Kotelnicki (1st Year)

Defensive Coordinator: Tom Allen (1st Year)

Penn State Nittany Lions Futures Odds (FanDuel)

National Championship Odds: +80000 | CFB Playoff Odds: -145

B1G Championship Odds: +490 | Exactly 10 Wins: +240

Win 10+ Games: -170 | Undefeated Regular Season: +560

Regular Season Wins: OVER 9.5 -172 | UNDER 9.5 +140

Penn State Preview: Why You Should Be Bullish

A defense among the top five in college football might be just as good again, thanks to what promises to be a dominant front seven. The defensive line and linebacking units are top-notch. Leading the way is Abdul Carter, who is converting from linebacker to defensive end so he can do what he does best: get after the quarterback. He’s an elite athlete who can be a real chess piece. Fellow junior Dani Dennis-Sutton completes what might be the best bookends in the country. Nine of their top 12 defensive linemen from 2023 are back. Underrated Kobe King is as reliable as they come at linebacker, with Tony Rojas ready to step into a starting role. There’s also depth behind them at linebacker as PSU shifts to a 4-2-5 under new DC Tom Allen, who typically gets the most out of his defenses.

Penn State Preview: Why You Should Be Bearish

Are the receivers and offensive line up to par? Drew Allar has taken hits for their lack of big-game success in 2023, but how about the rest of the offense? The offensive line seems to be talked up every year, and they fall short of expectations. The offensive line was poor in pass protection and must replace their top three blockers who have moved onto the NFL, including the No. 11 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, left tackle Olu Fashanu. Also gone are the top two receivers via the portal from a unit that struggled to get open. That’s a lot of new faces they need to step up if the Nittany Lions are going to be legitimate national title contenders.

Penn State Breakout Player: DE Dani Dennis-Sutton

Despite numerous candidates along the offensive line, at receiver, and cornerback (the top three lost), I’m returning to their defensive line. Former five-star recruit Dani Dennis-Sutton is stepping into the starting lineup. Playing behind Chop Robinson and Adisa Isaac, Dennis-Sutton still managed to record 3.5 sacks in a reserve role. He’s a big-time athlete and has put in the work, so expect him to reach his potential. With Carter playing opposite him, Dennis-Sutton will get a lot of one-on-one scenarios and make opposing offenses pay.

Penn State X-Factor: The Andy Kotelnicki Effect

The offense lacked big-play ability in 2023. PSU finished 93rd in explosive run rate and 85th in explosive pass plays. Allar has a big arm, but you wouldn’t know it because the Nittany Lions rarely went downfield (92nd in yards per pass). This group must have been allergic to biscuits in a no-risk, no-biscuit world. As a result, the offense was 118th in explosive plays per TruMedia (runs of 12+ yards, passes of 16+ yards). That’s why Franklin hired Andy Kotelnicki away from Kansas. The Jayhawks were third in yards per pass, seventh in plays of 40+ yards (PSU was 112th), and ninth in explosive play rate. Can Kotelnicki unlock Allar and spring speedy RB Nick Singleton for big plays? Will Franklin let him cook? We shall see.

Penn State Schedule Analysis

If PSU doesn’t slip up when they open the season at West Virginia (-8.5), the Nittany Lions should open the season 5-0. That’s when things get tricky. Their playoff hopes will come down to a three-game stretch that begins with a trip to USC (-4.5), followed by a game at Wisconsin (-6.5) the week before they host Ohio State (+3.5). With no Oregon or Michigan on the schedule, the Nittany Lions might only need one win out of three to reach ten wins and make their first CFP appearance.

Penn State Prediction: OVER/UNDER 9.5 Wins

It’s more likely Penn State goes 2-1 or 3-0 during their challenging stretch than 1-2 or 0-3. Even if they go 1-2, unless the Nittany Lions lose a game in which they are favored by around a touchdown (At WVU? At Wisconsin?), there’s still a good chance they go over the number, which is why PSU is -145 to make the playoffs. No Michigan or Oregon on the schedule is huge. There are only two games against preseason-ranked teams. Nothing is a lock, and Franklin still has big-game questions to answer, but we don’t need him to take them to another level to get to ten regular season wins, something he’s done in each of the past two seasons and five times in the past eight seasons.

If they get to ten wins, it’s hard to imagine the Nittany Lions not making the playoffs, which makes that price even tastier than the win total, which is where I’m putting my money.