NCAAF · 1 year ago

USC Trojans Preview | Expert Predictions & Best Bets

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

In Lincoln Riley’s first two seasons in Southern California, his teams went 8-5 and 11-3. Had it been in that order, the discussion would have been about a program trending in the right direction as they entered the Big Ten. However, because they won three fewer games in Year 2 of the Riley era, the discourse is about a potential hot seat in SoCal unless they can turn things around in 2024. Talk about pressure.

USC Trojans Preview

2023 Record: 8-5 (5-4); Pac-12 Finish: 4th (tied)

A.P. Poll: No. 23 | Coaches Poll: No. 23 | PFF: No. 23 | SP+: No. 21

Head Coach: Lincoln Riley (3rd Year) | Record: 19-8 (74-18 Overall)

Offensive Coordinator: Josh Henson (3rd Year)

Defensive Coordinator: D’Anton Lynn (1st Year)

USC Trojans Futures Odds (FanDuel)

National Championship Odds: +10000 | CFB Playoff Odds: +470

B1G Championship Odds: +2000 | Win 6+ Games: -420

Win 10+ Games: +340 | Undefeated Regular Season: +2800

Regular Season Wins: OVER 7.5 -105 | UNDER 7.5 +115

USC Preview: Why You Should Be Bullish

Say what you want about Lincoln Riley; he’s been an offensive mastermind. Looking back to his first season as Oklahoma’s offensive coordinator in 2015, Riley’s offenses have ranked in the top ten in EPA per play every year. They were third in scoring last season. Even though there were numerous losses, including Caleb Williams, USC’s offense is well stocked up with skill position talent. Miller Moss flashed his upside in the Holiday Bowl (6 TD passes), and incoming Woody Marks (Mississippi State) will be RB1. Then there is the strong class of 2023, which yielded five stars WR Zachariah Branch, WR Duce Robinson, top-100 recruits WR Makai Lemon, RB Quinten Joyner, and four-star WR Ja’Kobi Lane. TE Lake McRee is another potential All-B1G performer.

USC Preview: Why You Should Be Bearish

Depth and experience in the trenches, or lack thereof. The starting offensive line has potential improvement, and the four-man D-line has playmakers, but the depth could be better. Even if we assume RS freshman Elijah Paige can handle left tackle duties, the right side of the O-line is suspect. Three likely starters are unproven, with their best blocker, Jonah Monheim, playing a new position (center). The second unit is mostly first- and second-year players. Multiple times, Riley spoke about adding linemen on both sides of the ball through the portal but only landed DL Gavin Meyer (Wyoming). The Trojans only have one cupcake on the schedule, so their depth will be tested early and often.

USC Breakout Player: WR Ja’Kobe Lane

Zachariah Branch is a prominent name, and Duce Robinson was more productive as a true freshman. Still, we’re going with Ja’Kobe Lane. Like Moss (another breakout candidate), Lane showed what he could do when given the opportunity in their bowl win. He caught three passes for 60 yards, including two touchdowns in the Holiday Bowl, and could be Moss’s favorite target in 2024. At 6’4”, he has the size and wingspan to go up and get the football.

USC X-Factor: Defensive Additions

As good as the offense has been, Riley’s defenses have been equally suspect. They finished 105th in defensive SP+ in 2023. Out goes Alex Grinch, and former UCLA DC D’Anton Lynn steps in. If Lynn can do for the Trojans what he did for the Bruins (improved from 92nd in defensive SP+ to 17th), then watch out, Big Ten. While the talent isn’t what Lynn had at UCLA, they did upgrade via the portal, adding a couple of former Bruins in FS Kamari Ramsey and CB John Humphrey. Former Oregon State Beavers LB Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (first-team All-Pac-12) and SS Akili Arnold were also significant additions. Throw in DE Nate Clifton (37 starts at Vanderbilt) and nickel Greedy Vance (FSU), and as many as six transfers could find themselves starting on USC’s defense. They will be improved, but by how much? A top-50 defense might be good enough to get them into the tournament.

USC Schedule Analysis

The Trojans’ schedule is one of the country’s most demanding and the most challenging in the Big Ten. USC opens the season vs. No. 13 LSU (+5.5) in Las Vegas and ends at home vs. No. 7 Notre Dame (+3.5). Their first B1G match is in Ann Arbor at the defending champs, No. 9 Michigan (+8.4). While USC does miss out on Ohio State and Oregon, they also add No. 8 Penn State to the docket. Nine teams on their schedule have win projections of at least 6.5. UCLA has the lowest win total (4.5) of any team USC will face, and the Trojans are a mere 7.5-point favorite over their crosstown rivals. Every game is winnable, but 11 of 12 are contests the Trojans can lose.

USC Prediction: OVER/UNDER 7.5 Wins

USC is my first team preview and maybe the most arduous evaluation (factoring in they’re new to me as an addition to the B1G). There is enough talent to win eight or nine games (playoffs?!?), but there are many question marks and little time for the offensive line and defense to come together. Then, there’s the schedule. I’d wager the Trojans will lead the nation in games with a single-digit point spread.

With a much improved Lynn-led defense, my lean is towards USC getting to eight wins, a total Riley has reached in six of his seven seasons as head coach. Should they do better, there’s some value in the Trojans making the CFP, which somehow has longer odds than USC reaching ten wins.