NCAAF · 1 year ago

Iowa Hawkeyes Preview | Expert Predictions & Best Bets

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

Starting with the points clause in offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz’s contract, the 2023 Iowa Hawkeyes season was among college football’s most unique and bizarre. Despite having the worst offense in the country, the Hawkeyes somehow managed to win ten games and the Big Ten West, a proper send-off to divisions in the B1G. While the younger Ferentz was let go, with Tim Lester coming in to rejuvenate the offense, we could see more of the same in 2024.

Iowa Hawkeyes Preview

2023 Record: 10-4 (7-2); Big Ten Finish: 1st in B1G West

A.P. Poll: No. 25 | Coaches Poll: No. 25 | PFF: No. 18 | SP+: No. 24

Head Coach: Kirk Ferentz (26th Year) | Record: 196-119 | 208-140 Overall

Offensive Coordinator: Tim Lester (1st Year)

Defensive Coordinator: Phil Parker (13th Year; 26th w/ Iowa)

Iowa Hawkeyes Futures Odds (FanDuel)

National Championship Odds: +25000 | CFB Playoff Odds: +550

B1G Championship Odds: +4200 | Win 6+ Games: -550

Win 10+ Games: +330 | Undefeated Regular Season: +6000

Regular Season Wins: OVER 8.5 +152 | UNDER 8.5 -188

Iowa Preview: Why You Should Be Bullish

The defense, of course. Phil Parker is one of the best in the business, and Iowa returns 86.5 percent of its defensive production from last season, which is second most in the country. Of the 14 defenders who played 400-plus snaps in 2023, 11 are back. Five Iowa defensive starters used their COVID year to return for a fifth or sixth season. They are led by CASH Sebastian Castro, a pure playmaking hybrid linebacker-safety who does a lot of everything. Linebackers Jay Higgins (Iowa record 171 tackles in ’23) and Nick Jackson (has four 100-tackle seasons) are a dynamic duo. The Hawkeyes ranked No. 1 in yards per play, explosive run rate allowed, and explosive pass rate allowed. All that while creating only ten turnovers (typically their trademark) and finishing 106th in turnover luck. Could the defense be even better this year? Seems impossible, but why not?

Iowa Preview: Why You Should Be Bearish

Going into last season, many thought…Could the offense be even worse this year? It seemed impossible, yet they managed to go from second to last (130 out of 131) in total offense in 2022 to last (133 out of 133). Their 15.4 PPG was 132nd in the country, and they were in the 130s in EPA per play, yards per play, success rate, explosive run rate, and explosive pass play rate. There’s a new OC and hope for healthier seasons from key contributors QB Cade McNamara and TE Luke Lachey, but this group will likely be subpar once again.

Iowa Breakout Player: CB John Nestor/Deshaun Lee

The most significant loss from Iowa’s defense is dynamic cornerback Cooper DeJean. Who will start opposite senior Jermari Harris? Sophomores John Nestor and Deshaun Lee are excellent options and will be significant parts of the defense. After redshirting in 2022, Lee started six games last season and acquitted himself well. He will likely see the most reps but don’t count out true sophomore Nestor. The third-highest recruit in their 2023 class, Nestor is viewed as a DeJean type with cover and safety skills. An excellent athlete with swagger, he will be a special teams star with a growing role on defense.

Iowa X-Factor: The Kicking Game

No one will ever make a case for a punter to win the Heisman Trophy, but if you told me that Tory Taylor was better at punting than Jayden Daniels was at throwing and running, you wouldn’t get any pushback from me. Not only was Taylor great at punting, but I can’t imagine a punter at any level of football being as valuable as the Ray Guy Award winner was. His record-setting 4,479 yards in 2023, career average of 46.3 yards per punt (48.2 last season), and ability to pin opponents inside the 20—a whopping 109 times in the past three seasons—were invaluable. Fellow Aussie Rhys Dakin is slated to step in, but it’s hard to imagine him being as impactful. Then we look at kicker Drew Stevens. As a freshman, Stevens was 16-18 (88.9 %), including 6-8 from 40+, and perfect on extra points. Last season, he was just 18-26 (69.2%), 6-12 from 40+, and missed an extra point. Six of Iowa’s games in 2023 were decided by a single score. Which Stevens the Hawkeyes get this season could decide one or two games.

Iowa Schedule Analysis

The Hawkeyes won’t feel the demise of the B1G West this season. Yes, they have to play at Ohio State (+24), but they faced Penn State in 2023, Michigan and Ohio State in 2022, and Michigan and PSU in 2021. Not that Washington (home) or even UCLA (road) are lock wins, but the Hawkeyes don’t face Oregon or USC. So, just one of the B1G’s six ranked teams is on the schedule. Iowa State (-2.5) will give them a fight in Iowa City, but the Hawkeyes will likely be favored in at least eight games and potentially as many as 11. On the flip side, with five Big Ten road games, you can make the case that eight or nine matchups are losable if they play poorly. It’s a balanced schedule set up to maximize Iowa’s upside.

Iowa Prediction: OVER/UNDER 8.5 Wins

I love this Iowa defense and (I know I said this last year) believe the offense could approach average. They should have their best O-line in years, led by Logan Jones and Connor Colby, who are considered by many to be two of their best five players. A healthy Cade McNamara would help, and they upgraded behind him with Northwestern transfer Brendan Sullivan, who is no stranger to winning ugly, as QB2 to start the season. Their four best runners are back, including Leshon Williams (4.8 YPC, three 100-yard games in 2023) and speedster Kaleb Johnson (5.4 YPC in ’22; four career 100-yard games). So are potential star TE Luke Lachey and promising WR Kaleb Brown, who had no catches at midseason and finished with 22.

Iowa’s over at DK is only 8.0, but at -130, we prefer the plus money at FanDuel. We don’t love it, but if you’re looking for another futures bet, consider Iowa over 5.5 Big Ten wins or to make the playoffs at +550 (versus +330 to win 10+ games).