NCAAF · 1 year ago

College Football 2024 Season Preview: SEC Win Total Predictions

Zack Cook

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Georgia Bulldogs
The oddsmakers have set the Georgia Bulldogs' win total at 10.5, implying they anticipate Georgia would only be able to afford one loss to surpass this mark. The odds for achieving more than 10.5 wins are modestly favored at -122. This valuation is understandable considering the talent within their roster. If the Bulldogs manage to secure victories in two out of their three key games against top six opponents, betting on the over seems like a smart move.

OVER 10.5 (-122) (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Georgia Preview

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Texas Longhorns
For the Texas Longhorns to notch 11 wins in 2024, they must handle their unranked opponents and rivals Oklahoma and Texas A&M flawlessly. Additionally, they'll need to split their major matchups against Georgia and Michigan. Expecting the Longhorns to execute nearly perfectly and only falter once over the course of their season is quite the ask. Given this context, we see why there's some juice on the number, and we're comfortable backing it.

UNDER 10.5 (-178) (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Texas Preview
Alabama Crimson Tide
The 2024 schedule for the Crimson Tide includes seven games that can be confidently predicted as wins. The real test will be whether they can secure three or more victories against the five top-ranked teams they'll face. Despite speculation that the Crimson Tide may regress this year, we're not convinced, particularly with the attractive plus-money odds on betting over their win total.

OVER 9.5 (+116) (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Alabama Preview
Ole Miss Rebels
Reviewing the Rebels' 2024 schedule, it's straightforward to identify nine games where they are expected to be significant favorites. Assuming they win these and steer clear of any upsets, that accounts for nine wins, with their win total set at 9.5. Should the Rebels secure a victory against one of the teams like Georgia, LSU, or Oklahoma, it becomes quite compelling to bet on them exceeding their projected wins for the year.

OVER 9.5 (-122) (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Ole Miss Preview
LSU Tigers
Last season, the Tigers posted a 6-2 record in conference play, with their three losses coming against Florida State, Alabama, and Ole Miss. LSU is likely to face difficulties against these top teams again in 2024, which explains the significant juice on betting the under 9.5 wins. While there are promising aspects to this roster, they do not sufficiently suggest that LSU can achieve double-digit wins in the regular season.

UNDER 9.5 (-260) (FanDuel Sportsbook)

LSU Preview
Texas A&M Aggies
The oddsmakers consistently set compelling lines. The Aggies are anticipated to be moderate favorites in eight of their games this season. Their national standing will become clearer after their Week 1 game against Notre Dame. Texas A&M boasts a defense that could pose significant challenges for other teams. Despite a bit of juice on the line, we're inclined to back the over on Texas A&M achieving more than 8.5 wins in 2024.

OVER 8.5 (-132) (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Texas A&M Preview
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Tennessee Volunteers
The Volunteers are expected to be moderate to strong favorites in eight games on their 2024 schedule. With their win total set at 8.5, it's clear why there’s significant juice on betting the over. Even if Tennessee stumbles in one of these eight matchups, they still have a strong chance of surpassing their projected wins. Given the substantial offensive talent on this team, it’s likely that Tennessee will meet or exceed its expectations in 2024.

OVER 8.5 (-172) (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Tennessee Preview
Missouri Tigers
If the Tigers manage to secure a win in one of their three matchups against ranked opponents, the prospects of them exceeding their win total look favorable. It's possible the oddsmakers are privy to information we're not, given the attractive plus-money odds on the Tigers achieving back-to-back double-digit win seasons. Their offense has the potential to be exceptional, enough to mitigate some defensive worries. Considering the daunting schedule facing the Georgia Bulldogs in 2024, it’s not outlandish to think the Tigers could play in the SEC title game.

OVER 9.5 (+146) (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Missouri Preview
Oklahoma Sooners
To exceed their 7.5-win total in 2024, the Sooners will likely need to secure victories in at least two of the five tough games mentioned, assuming they win the games where they are clear favorites. The performance of their defense is predictable, but the key question is whether Jackson Arnold can step up as the transformative quarterback they need. Your confidence in answering this will likely determine if you think the Sooners will surpass their win target for the year. With the odds equally set at -110 for both over and under, the decision isn't clear-cut. However, we're optimistic about Arnold's potential and lean toward betting on the over.

Over 7.5 (-110) (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Oklahoma Preview
Auburn Tigers
The Tigers' road game against Kentucky on October 26 will be crucial in determining if they can surpass 7.5 wins in 2024. Alongside a few uncertain games on their schedule, they will need to secure those wins and probably pull off an upset in one of the previously mentioned matchups. Despite some promising aspects of their roster, our confidence in Payton Thorne's ability to lead as quarterback isn't strong enough to predict they'll achieve this.

UNDER 7.5 (-152) (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Auburn Preview
Florida Gators
Despite our concerns about the challenging conclusion to the Gators' schedule, we remain optimistic about their prospects to exceed their win total in 2024. They have a solid chance to secure victories in at least six scheduled games, not to mention the potential for upsets. It will require some effort, but we should have a good indication of the outcome by mid-season. We're confident in backing the trend of bets on the over.

OVER 4.5 (-152) (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Florida Preview
Kentucky Wildcats
Examining their schedule, the Wildcats are likely to be favored in at least four games. Beyond those, several contests could go either way, yet there’s no concrete reason they can't come out on top in those matchups. With a defense that has the potential to stand out in the SEC this season, the Wildcats have a strong foundation for success. A top-tier defense can be a significant advantage, which is why we're optimistic about the Wildcats surpassing their projected win total in 2024.

OVER 6.5 (-122) (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Kentucky Preview
South Carolina Gamecocks
The pattern of betting the under continues with the SEC's lower-tier teams. Although the Gamecocks might be favored in several games on their schedule, they'll still need to manage an unexpected win against one of the ranked opponents we've mentioned. While they have the talent to possibly achieve that in 2024, there's also a risk they could falter against a team they're expected to defeat. Given these dynamics, the value in betting the under, especially at plus-money odds, becomes particularly attractive.

UNDER 5.5 (+110) (FanDuel Sportsbook)

South Carolina Preview
Arkansas Razorbacks
While the Arkansas Razorbacks can anticipate some promising developments on defense, their offense features several new components that may require time to gel. Unfortunately, the Razorbacks don’t have the luxury of time to surpass their win total this year. Faced with a challenging schedule towards the season's end and more uncertainties than certainties on offense, we find value in betting on the under 4.5 wins at +100.

UNDER 4.5 (+100) (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Arkansas Preview
Mississippi State Bulldogs
There's definitely some cause for optimism about the Bulldogs' future. The foundational pieces are in place for Jeff Lebby to possibly rejuvenate the program and make his mark. However, Mississippi State's 2024 schedule presents significant challenges, which is a major factor in our inclination to lean toward under 4.5 wins.

UNDER 4.5 (-188) (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Mississippi State Preview
Vanderbilt Commodores
It's no shock that the Commodores' win total for 2024 is pegged at a mere 2.5, given that Vanderbilt only secured two wins last year and significant improvement seems unlikely for now. While there are three games on their schedule that appear winnable for the Commodores, with a roster in its current form, nothing is guaranteed. We're inclined to predict another season where they conclude with just two wins.

UNDER 2.5 (+160, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Vanderbilt Preview

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Georgia Bulldogs
The oddsmakers have set the Georgia Bulldogs' win total at 10.5, implying they anticipate Georgia would only be able to afford one loss to surpass this mark. The odds for achieving more than 10.5 wins are modestly favored at -122. This valuation is understandable considering the talent within their roster. If the Bulldogs manage to secure victories in two out of their three key games against top six opponents, betting on the over seems like a smart move.

OVER 10.5 (-122) (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Georgia Preview

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College Football 2024 Season Preview: SEC Win Total Predictions

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