College Football B1G Power Rankings Week 4: Oregon Breaks Out!

UCLA BRUINS (1-1, 0-1)

We figured UCLA would have a “welcome to the Big Ten” moment this year. Maybe at Penn State or facing Iowa’s elite defense, but the Hoosiers made the Bruins look overmatched in their first-ever B1G conference game. The pass defense couldn’t get off the field, as UCLA allowed Indiana to convert on 9 of 12 third downs. The Bruins didn’t get to IU's quarterback once a year after finishing seventh in the country in sacks (43).

Week 4 | 3:30 | ABC | +23.5 @ LSU

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TIER II – THE CHALLENGERS: OREGON & PENN STATE

Oregon (-430) and Penn State (-230) are both projected to make the playoffs by the oddsmakers, with the Ducks viewed as OSU’s top challenger in the Big Ten. Oregon is +240 to Win the Big Ten Championship, compared to PSU, which checks in at +450.

OREGON DUCKS (3-0, 0-0)

After playing with their food for the first two weeks, the Ducks finally looked like a playoff team in their 49-14 thrashing of in-state rival Oregon State in the Civil War. More important than the score is how they got there. We saw improved blocking from the offensive line and the big play explosiveness everyone expected (9.3 yards per play!).

Week 4 | Idle

PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (2-0, 0-0)

Like the Buckeyes, the Nittany Lions had an early idle week. Unlike OSU, PSU certainly has much to improve on, considering their close call to Bowling Green in Week 2.

Week 4 | 2:00 | ESPN+ | -48.5 vs. Kent State

TIER III – CONTENDERS: MICHIGAN & USC

The Trojans have elevated themselves to the clear-cut No. 4 team in the B1G pecking order. They are +850 to Win the Big Ten Championship and tenth in odds to make the College Football Playoff (+140). There’s a significant drop-off with Michigan: +4500 to Win the Big Ten Championship. While other programs have looked better through three weeks, I’m not ready to drop the Wolverines behind the likes of Nebraska and Indiana yet. These two college football blue bloods go head-to-head in the Big House on Saturday.

USC TROJANS (2-0, 0-0)

More than OSU and PSU, the Trojans can benefit from their extra week to prepare for their first-ever conference game as a member of the Big Ten. Through two games, USC’s defense is arguably the most improved unit in the country. This week’s matchup will test how their offensive line handles Michigan’s front and blitzing schemes.

Week 4 | 3:30 | CBS | -5.5 @ Michigan

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (2-1, 0-0)

Following Davis Warren’s third interception against Arkansas State and sixth of the season (!), Sherrone Moore benched the former walk-on in favor of running quarterback Alex Orji, whom everyone presumed would be the starter to open the season. This team isn’t talented enough to overcome the numerous turnovers, penalties, and mental errors plaguing them this season.

Week 4 | 3:30 | CBS | +5.5 vs. USC

TIER IV – MIDDLE OF THE PACK: IOWA, INDIANA, NEBRASKA, WISCONSIN, ILLINOIS, & WASHINGTON

The trendy teams in this group are Nebraska (+3000 to Win the Big Ten Championship) and Indiana (+5500). They’ve won impressively, but neither has a resume-building win. Iowa (+5500) is Iowa, Illinois (+13000) is ranked in the AP Poll, while Wisconsin (+12000) and Washington (+22000) are trending in the wrong direction, coming off losses in Week 3.

IOWA HAWKEYES (2-1, 0-0)

What’s going on in Iowa City? A week after giving up 20 second-half points to Iowa State, the Hawkeyes allowed 21 points to Troy, who scored on TD passes of 63 and 62 yards and a punt return of 77 yards. Iowa wins with the defense, not giving up the big play and special teams. The good news is the offense picked up the slack with 28 points behind 173 yards and two TDs on the ground from Kaleb Johnson, who is emerging as a star.

Week 4 | 7:30 | NBC | -2.5 @ Minnesota

NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (3-0, 0-0)

It’s been smooth sailing for the Huskers through three weeks, but there are no UTEPs or Northern Iowas in the Big Ten. There might not be any Colorados (maybe one, sorry, Purdue). Nebraska’s will be tested in conference play. They begin to step up in competition on Friday night but are easing into the B1G slate, as their four toughest matchups come in the final five games.

Week 4 | 8:00 | FOX | -7.5 vs. Illinois (Friday)

WASHINGTON HUSKIES (2-1, 0-0)

Saturday was Washington’s first test of the season, and they failed. They averaged 6.8 yards per play to 6.0. Will Rogers was sharp (23-31, 314 yards), and the running game was clicking, but the Huskies made too many mistakes. Starting with 16 penalties…16! Costly third & long conversions on defense and five sacks allowed also burned them in a game they should have won.

Week 4 | 7:00 | FS1 | -10.5 vs. Northwestern

NCAA Football: Indiana at UCLA

The Hoosiers thumped UCLA in Westwood. IU jumped out to an early 14-0 lead and never looked back. Indiana nearly outgained the Bruins by 200 yards (192). Kurtis Rourke connected on four scoring strikes and has plenty of weapons to throw to. They have a surprisingly deep group of receivers.

Week 4 | 12:00 | BTN | -28.5 vs. Charlotte

ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI (3-0, 0-0)

The Fighting Illini are getting more respect in the polls than by the oddsmakers. I’m not sure either is correct. They’re probably not a top-25 team but are undervalued in the market. The defense and passing offense are much improved. With new offensive tackles protecting the pocket, Luke Altmyer (6 TDs, 0 INTs, 8.3 YPP) is off to an excellent start to his second season in Champaign.

Week 4 | 8:00 | FOX | +7.5 @ Nebraska (Friday)

WISCONSIN BADGERS (2-1, 0-0)

Wisconsin should be downgraded coming off last week’s 42-10 blowout loss to Alabama, in which starting QB Tyler Van Dyke went down with an injury on the game’s opening possession and is out for the season. We don’t want to overreact to one game against an elite opponent, but we know that Braedyn Locke is not him. He was 13 of 26 against ‘Bama and looked much like the subpar passer he was in 2023.

Week 4 | Idle

TIER V – REALISTIC BOWL HOPES: RUTGERS, MICHIGAN STATE, MINNESOTA, MARYLAND

Even though Rutgers (+13000 to Win the Big Ten Championship) and Michigan State (+49000) are undefeated, while Maryland (+50000) and Minnesota (+24000) have suffered defeats, there isn’t much separation between those teams. A bad conference loss (to MSU) impacts Maryland’s B1G odds.

MARYLAND TERAPINS (2-1, 0-1)

Even though they lost head-to-head to Michigan State, Maryland should be the best team in this group. They picked up a big win at Virginia on Saturday, as QB Billy Edwards (263 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) continues to impress with his passing. Tai Felton had his third straight game with 100+ yards and a TD to add to his monster season (447 receiving yards). They might have something in freshman running back Nolan Ray (5.5 YPC), who has seen his carries increase each week.

Week 4 | 12:00 | BTN | -17.5 vs. Villanova

RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS (3-0, 0-0)

After efficiently handling Howard and Akron, Rutgers had an extra week to prepare for their first test of the season, which will be visiting a Virginia Tech team they beat 35-16 at home last year. Minnesota transfer Athan Kaliakmanis has given RU a more balanced offense through two games (188.5 YPG vs. 137.5 in 2023). Will that carry over into Saturday?

Week 4 | 3:30 | ACCN | +3.5 @ Virginia Tech

MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS (2-1, 0-0)

How about the Minnesota defense? The Golden Gophers have pitched back-to-back shutouts! They held the Wolf Pack to 3.2 yards per play, sacked the quarterback four times, and intercepted three passes. They’re a missed FG away from being 3-0.

Week 4 | 7:30 | FOX | +2.5 vs. Iowa

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (3-0, 1-0)

Freshman quarterback Aidan Chiles settled down against Prairie View in a 40-0 win. His numbers were OK: 12 of 19 for 173 yards, 1 TD. Most significant was his zero interceptions (four through two games).

Week 4 | 8:00 | ACCN | +6.5 @ Boston College

TIER VI – THE RACE TO AVOID 18TH PLACE: NORTHWESTERN, UCLA, PURDUE

Northwestern (+50000) could easily be 3-0, but Purdue (+50000) and UCLA (+50000) probably turned in the worst two performances by Big Ten teams in Week 3.

NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS (2-1, 0-0)

The ‘Cats made a quarterback change ahead of their Week 3 matchup against Eastern Illinois. Jack Lausch looks to be a better passer (20-31, 227 yards, 2 TDs) while still proving to be a capable runner (62 yards, 8.9 YPC). But that was against an FCS foe…Washington will be a stiffer challenge.

Week 4 | 7:00 | FS1 | +10.5 @ Washington

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (1-1, 0-0)

Has Notre Dame stopped scoring yet? The Fighting Irish had the most embarrassing loss of Week 2, and Purdue paid for it. The Boilermakers were outgained by over 400 yards in a 66-7 defeat. The defense allowed 379 rushing yards (taking out the sack yardage) at a 9.2 yards per carry clip. Things could get ugly fast in West Lafayette.

Week 4 | 8:30 | CW | +5.5 @ Oregon State

UCLA BRUINS (1-1, 0-1)

We figured UCLA would have a “welcome to the Big Ten” moment this year. Maybe at Penn State or facing Iowa’s elite defense, but the Hoosiers made the Bruins look overmatched in their first-ever B1G conference game. The pass defense couldn’t get off the field, as UCLA allowed Indiana to convert on 9 of 12 third downs. The Bruins didn’t get to IU's quarterback once a year after finishing seventh in the country in sacks (43).

Week 4 | 3:30 | ABC | +23.5 @ LSU

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