Notre Dame Fighting Irish Orange Bowl Top 5 Player Props | CFP Semifinals Best Bets

Riley Leonard Over 47.5 Rushing Yards

Running the ball has been Riley Leonard's strength all season. Notre Dame's quarterback nearly equaled Love's productions in terms of rushing yards and actually surpassed him in carries, which is reflected in his higher rushing prop in the Orange Bowl. Like Love, we expect Leonard to surpass that benchmark at Hard Rock Stadium. 

Leonard knows precisely when to tuck and run. He's recorded more than 11 carries in three straight games, accumulating 160 yards. Additionally, he's crossed the 50-yard plateau in two of those three contests. 

While Penn State has excelled at defending the run, we give Leonard the edge in maintaining his recent uptick in production. Leonard should find the necessary gaps to surpass his 47.5 rushing yards by design or on the fly.

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Riley Leonard Under 157.5 Passing Yards

Leonard's passing prop is rightfully set at 157.5. The senior quarterback has been an efficient passer this season, albeit with a limited ceiling in the latter stages of the campaign. 

Leonard is coming off a 90-yard passing effort in the Sugar Bowl. That was the third time in four games in which he's fallen below 155 passing yards and the third time he's recorded fewer than 24 pass attempts over the same stretch.

Pass defense has been a Penn State strength since the outset of the season. They rank 21st in the country, holding FBS opponents to just 187.9 passing yards per game. We're betting on all of those trends holding steady on Thursday, with Leonard falling below 157.5 passing yards. 

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Jeremiyah Love Over 37.5 Rushing Yards

Running against the Nittany Lions is no easy task, but Jeremiyah Love's ceiling is much higher than his betting line implies. Notre Dame's feature back has the workload and efficiency to surpass 37.5 yards in the Orange Bowl. 

Granted, Love was bottled up against the Georgia Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl. Still, that was a significant departure from what we've seen from him compared to his more recent performances. Love surpassed the century mark in three of his previous four outings and averaged 10.8 yards per rush attempt across that sample. 

Love is a natural progression candidate against Penn State. The last time he was held below 20 rushing yards, he responded with a 137-yard performance. We're expecting another bounce-back effort on Thursday. 

Spread: Notre Dame -2.5 | Moneyline: Notre Dame -137 | Total: 49.5

Beaux Collins Under 17.5 Receiving Yards

We're taking a correlated approach with our fourth selection. Beaux Collins's ceiling correlates with Leonard's ability to move the ball downfield. As Leonard's ceiling is limited against Penn State, so is Collins. 

Collins has taken on a diminished role with the Irish in recent weeks. The senior hasn't surpassed 18 receiving yards in any of his last three contests, and he's totaled just 31 receiving yards over that stretch. More concerningly, Collins has just three receptions on seven targets. 

Decreased presence and efficiency limit Collins' efficiency against the Nittany Lions. His receiving yards prop is low for a reason, but we still expect him to fall short of it. 

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Riley Leonard Over 47.5 Rushing Yards

Running the ball has been Riley Leonard's strength all season. Notre Dame's quarterback nearly equaled Love's productions in terms of rushing yards and actually surpassed him in carries, which is reflected in his higher rushing prop in the Orange Bowl. Like Love, we expect Leonard to surpass that benchmark at Hard Rock Stadium. 

Leonard knows precisely when to tuck and run. He's recorded more than 11 carries in three straight games, accumulating 160 yards. Additionally, he's crossed the 50-yard plateau in two of those three contests. 

While Penn State has excelled at defending the run, we give Leonard the edge in maintaining his recent uptick in production. Leonard should find the necessary gaps to surpass his 47.5 rushing yards by design or on the fly.

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