Predicting the Outcome of the 7 Big Ten Games in Week 12

7:30 PM ET | Oregon (10-0, 7-0) @ Wisconsin (5-4, 3-3) | NBC

Spread: Oregon -13.5 (-115) | Total: 51.5

It has been a tale of two teams for Wisconsin. Against inferior teams, the Badgers are 5-0 with an average score of 34.4 to 8.6. Against superior teams (which includes USC and Iowa), Wisky is 0-4 with an average score of 37.5 to 13.5.

No. 1 Oregon qualifies as a superior team. The undefeated Ducks have rolled through the Big Ten in their first season in the conference by an average score of 35.2 to 14, which includes a one-point win over No. 2 Ohio State.

There’s nothing other than the mystique of Camp Randell at night (is that still a thing?) with Jump Around playing before the start of the fourth quarter to indicate Wisconsin can make this a game on Saturday.

The Ducks are better at everything, which will be reflected in the final score.

Score: Oregon 40, Wisconsin 13

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Noon ET | No. 2 Ohio State (8-1, 5-1) @ Northwestern (4-5, 2-4) | BTN

Spread: Ohio State -28.5 (-115) | Total: 44.5

Ohio State has won ten straight in this series—including twice in the Big Ten Championship Game—but Northwestern has kept four of the past six within 14 points.

So, you’re saying there’s a chance?

Heck no. The team total for the Wildcats is set at 6.5 (at FanDuel).

The Buckeyes have allowed more than 17 points once this season and held five opponents to a touchdown or less with two shutouts, including their 45-0 win over Purdue last week.

How many will Northwestern score?

Score: Ohio State 34, Northwestern 10

2:30 p.m. ET | Michigan State (4-5, 2-4) @ Illinois (6-3, 3-3) | FS1

Spread: Illinois -2.5 (-115) | Total: 47.5

After a 4-0 start (6-1), Illinois has dropped their past two games (three of five). Michigan State started the season 3-0 and has lost five of their past six games, which leaves them needing two more wins to become bowl-eligible in Jonathan Smith’s first season in East Lansing.

Which team bounces back on Saturday?

Against one of the worst pass defenses in the Big Ten, expect Luke Altmyer to let it rip for the Illini. The junior has improved in 2024, with 16 touchdowns (13 last season) to three interceptions (10 last season). He has two reliable veteran receivers in Pat Bryant (39 receptions, 582 yards, 7 TDs) and Zakhari Franklin (39 receptions, 582 yards, 7 TDs).

The Spartans would be wise to lean on their running game and protect their mistake-prone freshman quarterback Aidan Chiles (8 TDs to 11 INTs). In their first two games against Power Four teams, Chiles attempted 73 passes (36.2 per game). In his past five games, the freshman has attempted 113 (22.6). Illinois hasn’t stopped the run effectively, increasing the incentive for MSU to be balanced offensively.

Score: Illinois 30, Michigan State 23

3:30 p.m. ET | Penn State (8-1, 5-1) @ Purdue (1-8, 0-6) | CBS

Spread: Penn State -28.5 (-115) | Total: 50.5

You can make a case that Purdue picking up their first Big Ten win this Saturday would be the week’s biggest upset.

The Boilermakers have lost eight in a row and by wide margins against playoff contenders: 66-7 to Notre Dame, 35-0 vs. Oregon, and 45-0 at Ohio State. Two of those defeats came on their home field. It’s sad how much this program has regressed since Jeff Brohm’s departure.

The Nittany Lions can name their score against Purdue in what could be Ryan Walters’s final home game as head coach.

Score: Penn State 38, Purdue 7

4:00 p.m. ET | Nebraska (5-4, 2-4) @ USC (4-5, 2-5) | FOX

Spread: USC -7.5 | Total: 50.5

This is a fascinating matchup with many moving pieces for a pair of big-name programs who are surprised to be still fighting for bowl eligibility after good starts to the season. Rewind to Week 4 when USC was ranked 11th in the AP Poll, with Nebraska checking in at No. 22. Everything was promising for Lincoln Riley and Matt Rhule.

Fast forward to Week 12, and the Trojans have benched Miller Moss in favor of UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava (11 passes this season), who has a bigger arm. As a freshman, Maiava threw for 3,085 yards (8.7 YPA) and 17 TDs (10 INTs).

Was Miller the problem? USC had fourth-quarter leads in every one of their five losses, so no. But he wasn’t the solution either. Considering their receiver talent, nine INTs (18 TDs) and 7.1 yards per attempt weren’t cutting it. Moss has thrown the third-most interceptions among B1G QBs and is ranked tenth in completion percentage and ninth in rating. That’s not good enough for SoCal.

Nebraska’s offensive metrics are even worse, so Rhule brought Dana Holgorsen last week to run the offense. We never liked hiring Marcus Satterfield as OC, but this feels too little, too late, and has a tinge of desperation. “We need some help,” said Rhule of the move, adding it’s not about 2025 but right now. We shall see.

I’m intrigued to see how both offenses look. Both programs need wins to clinch bowl eligibility and build toward next year.

Score: USC 28, Nebraska 20

6:00 p.m. ET | Rutgers (5-4, 2-4) @ Maryland (4-5, 1-5) | FS1

Spread: Maryland -5.5 (-115) | Total: 52.5

Two more teams that need wins to make a bowl this season. Rutgers can lock it up with a second-straight upset after they dropped the four previous games. It would be the first time they made a bowl in consecutive seasons since 2013-2014. Yeah, it’s been that long.

Maryland has made a bowl in the past three seasons, but they haven’t gone bowling in four straight campaigns since the early 1980s.

Neither program had high expectations going into the season, but missing out on a bowl game would be considered a disappointing season.

Athan Kaliakmanis surprised his former team last week with 240 yards and three TD passes. Can we see a repeat performance? Considering Kyle Monangai is coming off a head injury and how RU’s defense has played this season, he may have to.

Billy Edwards, who has thrown for over 200 yards in every game (three times over 300), has six games with multiple TD passes, however only once in the past four games.

This is a bigger game for the Terps, who need two more wins (Rutgers needs one), and this is undoubtedly the easiest of their final three games. Maryland has won the past three in this former B1G East series, five if you take it the COVID season.

Score: Maryland 30, Rutgers 20

7:30 PM ET | Oregon (10-0, 7-0) @ Wisconsin (5-4, 3-3) | NBC

Spread: Oregon -13.5 (-115) | Total: 51.5

It has been a tale of two teams for Wisconsin. Against inferior teams, the Badgers are 5-0 with an average score of 34.4 to 8.6. Against superior teams (which includes USC and Iowa), Wisky is 0-4 with an average score of 37.5 to 13.5.

No. 1 Oregon qualifies as a superior team. The undefeated Ducks have rolled through the Big Ten in their first season in the conference by an average score of 35.2 to 14, which includes a one-point win over No. 2 Ohio State.

There’s nothing other than the mystique of Camp Randell at night (is that still a thing?) with Jump Around playing before the start of the fourth quarter to indicate Wisconsin can make this a game on Saturday.

The Ducks are better at everything, which will be reflected in the final score.

Score: Oregon 40, Wisconsin 13

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