NCAAF · 1 year ago

Ranking First-Time College Football Playoff Contenders to Watch

Grant White

Host · Writer

10. Virginia Tech Hokies
Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Not Available
National Championship Odds: +25000

We know the Virginia Tech Hokies aren't in the National Championship conversation. Still, that doesn't diminish their outlook as one of the top dark horse teams to make an unexpected run to the CFP.

Continuity is key for V-Tech in 2024. The National Championship longshots return their most productive players on both sides of the ball and have a relatively unobstructed schedule.

The Hokies' playoff chances could boil down to a Week 5 showdown against the Miami (FL) Hurricanes and a Week 11 battle against the Clemson Tigers. A win in one of both of those matchups positions Virginia Tech for a surprise berth in the College Football Playoff.
1. Penn State Nittany Lions
Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes -142 / No +116
National Championship Odds: +2000

The perennial bridesmaid of the Big Ten, the Penn State Nittany Lions, will surely benefit from the expanded College Football Playoff and are the first-time CFP team to watch heading into the 2024 season.

Drew Allar will command the lion's share of the preseason laudation, but the Nittany Lions defense could lead the team to glory in 2024. Penn State allowed the fewest yards per game last season, limiting opponents to a minuscule 223.3 and holding them to 11.4 points per game. With a standout unit taking to the field again this season, we could see an even fiercer Penn State defense.

The odds are in their favor, with the Nittany Lions priced at a competitive -142 to make the playoffs. That makes them the top team to watch heading into the campaign.
2. Ole Miss Rebels
Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes -132 / No +108
National Championship Odds: +1400

While they'll be operating behind a rebuilt offensive line, that hasn't detracted bettors from jumping on the Ole Miss Rebels as National Championship contenders. If Ole Miss claims its first title in school history, they'll do so as a mid-range +1400 betting option.

Jaxson Dart returns for his senior season, looking to improve off 2023's impressive campaign. The Utah native threw for a career-best 3,364 yards and 23 touchdowns, tossing just five interceptions. He'll have two of his top receivers back this season, with Tre Harris and Jordan Watkins insulating their quarterback.

Ole Miss's scoring defense was elite last year, limiting opponents to 22.3 points per game. A beefy recruiting class from this offseason ensures that they'll maintain that standard throughout the upcoming season.

The SEC is an unforgiving landscape. But even if they don't secure a guaranteed playoff spot by winning the conference, the Rebels will still make some noise in the playoffs as an at-large team.
3. Tennessee Volunteers
Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +198 / No -250
National Championship Odds: +3500

The Tennessee Volunteers have never been able to compete with the top teams in the SEC. But this year's less competitive schedule and more wide-open field give the Vols a glimmer of hope in cracking this year's CFP.

Offensively, Tennessee stacks up well against the top teams in the country. Nico Iamaleava leads an experienced unit that achieved moderate success in 2023. The Volunteers averaged nearly 450 yards per game, translating to 31.8 points and nine wins.

Backed by a senior-laden defense, the Volunteers enter the 2024 season as an appealing underdog to claim one of the 12 playoff spots up for grabs.
4. Texas A&M Aggies
Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +225 / -290
National Championship Odds: +4000

The Texas A&M Aggies didn't get the respect they deserved last year, but they can amend that in 2024 by making the College Football Playoff for the first time in school history.

Surprisingly, the Aggies led the SEC in total defense, corraling opponents to 295.0 yards per game. While their scoring defense let them down a little, allowing 21.3 points per game, there's no reason to doubt their ability to replicate their defensive success this season.

Texas A&M has a few moving pieces on offense, but that doesn't deter their outlook for 2024. If they can make the most of their challenging matchups at Kyle Field, this team could eke its way into the CFP.
5. Missouri Tigers
Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +184 / No -230
National Championship Odds: +4000

From one playoff-less SEC program to another, the Missouri Tigers are a dark horse to upset the College Football Playoff bracket this season.

We're most intrigued by the Tigers' ferocious offense. Luther Burden III came into his own in 2023, compiling 1,212 receiving yards, nine touchdowns, and six 100-yard games. Continuity is the Tigers' best friend, as Brady Cook is back under center and ready to re-establish his connection with one of the country's top pass-catchers.

Surely, Missouri will blow some of their opponents out of the water, but they'll also be getting elite play on the defensive side of the ball. The Tigers limited the opposition to 347.0 yards per game in 2023, equaling a paltry 22.3 points.

Mizzou will be one of the most efficient teams in the FBS. If they live up to their potential, the Tigers could be the new kings of the NCAA.
6. Miami (FL) Hurricanes
Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +172 / No -220
National Championship Odds: +4000

With an automatic berth guaranteed for every Power 4 conference winner, the Miami (FL) Hurricanes' best shot of claiming their first playoff appearance comes from winning the ACC. Still, they can claim one of the other eight spots available if they can extract maximum value from their relatively untested offense.

Cam Ward takes over in South Beach after a successful tenure manning the Washington State Cougars offense for the past two seasons. Over that stretch, Ward threw for 6,829 yards and 48 touchdowns, with only 15 interceptions. With a talented receivers corps at his disposal, those benchmarks will reach a new stratosphere with the Hurricanes.

No less than six new starters on defense tempers those playoff expectations. But if Miami (FL) unleashes its offense to its fullest potential, defense will be an afterthought in most contests.
7. Utah Utes
Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +194 / No -250
National Championship Odds: +6000

The conference re-alignment could cause a cataclysmic shift in the College Football Playoff betting odds. Although not every team benefits from the new dynamics, it could propel the Utah Utes into the CFP bracket for the first time in school history. That opens the door for a Utah upset come January.

The Utes are established on both sides of the football. Defensively, they ranked as an elite squad last year, 19.8 points per game on a tidy 308.6 yards. Their offense didn't match that energy, but they should be far superior with Cameron Rising under center. The senior returns after missing all of last season with an injury, upgrading an offense loaded with returning players.

They may be distant now, but we expect the Utes to close the championship gap as the season progresses. That makes them a value pick on the futures board and a first-time contender to watch closely.
8. Kansas State Wildcats
Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +285 / No -375
National Championship Odds: +8000

After an offseason of change, the Kansas State Wildcats are barely hanging on as National Championship contenders. But running back DJ Giddens and quarterback Avery Johnson could run this team straight into the College Football Playoff.

Giddens was a standout in his sophomore campaign. In 2023, he ran for 1,226 yards and ten scores, establishing himself as one of the premier lead-backs in the FBS ranks. Johnson was deployed primarily as a backup but still managed 296 rushing yards on 52 carries and 479 yards on 66 pass attempts. Operating under a spread offense, there will be no shortage of opportunities to eat up yards all season.

A rejuvenated defense bolsters K-State's playoff aspirations. If they can maximize production on both sides of the football, the Wildcats could upend the college football landscape and snag a seat in the CFP.
9. USC Trojans
Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +470 / No -700
National Championship Odds: +10000

The USC Trojans have failed to recapture the glory of the early-aughts; however, their program is trending upward under Lincoln Riley. A fresh start in the Big Ten could be needed to reinvigorate their playoff hopes.

The Trojans' chance of making the playoff depends on Miller Moss's ability to capitalize on offense. USC will be tested against some of the best defensive teams in the FBS this season, and Moss is a relatively unproven commodity. Last year, he attemtped just 65 passes while playing mostly in garbage time.

Moreover, defense hasn't been a strength for USC for quite some time. If they can adapt their rebuilt defense to the rigors of the Big Ten, the Trojans have an outside shot of cracking the 12-team playoff field.
10. Virginia Tech Hokies
Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Not Available
National Championship Odds: +25000

We know the Virginia Tech Hokies aren't in the National Championship conversation. Still, that doesn't diminish their outlook as one of the top dark horse teams to make an unexpected run to the CFP.

Continuity is key for V-Tech in 2024. The National Championship longshots return their most productive players on both sides of the ball and have a relatively unobstructed schedule.

The Hokies' playoff chances could boil down to a Week 5 showdown against the Miami (FL) Hurricanes and a Week 11 battle against the Clemson Tigers. A win in one of both of those matchups positions Virginia Tech for a surprise berth in the College Football Playoff.
1. Penn State Nittany Lions
Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes -142 / No +116
National Championship Odds: +2000

The perennial bridesmaid of the Big Ten, the Penn State Nittany Lions, will surely benefit from the expanded College Football Playoff and are the first-time CFP team to watch heading into the 2024 season.

Drew Allar will command the lion's share of the preseason laudation, but the Nittany Lions defense could lead the team to glory in 2024. Penn State allowed the fewest yards per game last season, limiting opponents to a minuscule 223.3 and holding them to 11.4 points per game. With a standout unit taking to the field again this season, we could see an even fiercer Penn State defense.

The odds are in their favor, with the Nittany Lions priced at a competitive -142 to make the playoffs. That makes them the top team to watch heading into the campaign.

Ranking First-Time College Football Playoff Contenders to Watch

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Not Available
National Championship Odds: +25000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes -142 / No +116
National Championship Odds: +2000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes -132 / No +108
National Championship Odds: +1400

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +198 / No -250
National Championship Odds: +3500

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +225 / -290
National Championship Odds: +4000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +184 / No -230
National Championship Odds: +4000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +172 / No -220
National Championship Odds: +4000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +194 / No -250
National Championship Odds: +6000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +285 / No -375
National Championship Odds: +8000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +470 / No -700
National Championship Odds: +10000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Not Available
National Championship Odds: +25000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes -142 / No +116
National Championship Odds: +2000

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Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Not Available National Championship Odds: +25000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes -142 / No +116 National Championship Odds: +2000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes -132 / No +108 National Championship Odds: +1400

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +198 / No -250 National Championship Odds: +3500

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +225 / -290 National Championship Odds: +4000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +184 / No -230 National Championship Odds: +4000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +172 / No -220 National Championship Odds: +4000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +194 / No -250 National Championship Odds: +6000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +285 / No -375 National Championship Odds: +8000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +470 / No -700 National Championship Odds: +10000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Not Available National Championship Odds: +25000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes -142 / No +116 National Championship Odds: +2000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Not Available
National Championship Odds: +25000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes -142 / No +116
National Championship Odds: +2000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes -132 / No +108
National Championship Odds: +1400

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +198 / No -250
National Championship Odds: +3500

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +225 / -290
National Championship Odds: +4000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +184 / No -230
National Championship Odds: +4000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +172 / No -220
National Championship Odds: +4000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +194 / No -250
National Championship Odds: +6000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +285 / No -375
National Championship Odds: +8000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes +470 / No -700
National Championship Odds: +10000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Not Available
National Championship Odds: +25000

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Yes -142 / No +116
National Championship Odds: +2000