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Ranking the Top 10 Potential Upsets for College Football Week 5

TJ Inman

Host · Writer

10. Baylor at Arizona State
Date: October 3 | Time: 10:30 PM ET | TV: ESPN | AP Rank: Not Ranked

Records: Baylor (3-1) at Arizona State (2-1)

Stadium: Mountain America Stadium | Location: Tempe, AZ

The Arizona State Sun Devils won a sloppy game at Wembley Stadium and had a week off to reacclimate. They now welcome the Baylor Bears to the desert, and DJ Lagway is getting into rhythm after missing two games due to an ankle injury. He was pretty bad against Colorado last week, but Lagway has plenty of talent to take advantage of Arizona State's porous defense. Baylor’s defense has been fairly stout this season, surrendering only 13 points to Colorado and just 17 to Auburn in the opener.
1. Penn State at Northwestern
Date: October 2 | Time: 8:00 PM ET | TV: FOX | AP Rank: NR | Records: Penn State - 3-1 Northwestern: 2-1 | Stadium: Ryan Field | Location: Evanston, IL

The Northwestern Wildcats open their new stadium on Friday night with a primetime clash against the Penn State Nittany Lions. Matt Campbell’s team collapsed in the second half against the Wisconsin Badgers and lost 24-20, effectively ending the conversation about Penn State being a College Football Playoff team. All that discussion wasn't happening because a lot of people thought the Nittany Lions were a really talented team; it was happening because of a perceived easy schedule. A favorable schedule does not make a good team, and Penn State has decidedly average personnel. Northwestern gave the Indiana Hoosiers all they wanted in Bloomington, and Chip Kelly is still one of the better offensive minds in the sport. Northwestern has the better quarterback and the better pass catchers, and I think they have a significant advantage in team speed.
2. Alabama at Mississippi State
Date: October 3 | Time: Noon | TV: ABC | AP Rank: #7 Alabama vs. #16 Mississippi State

Records: Alabama (4-0) vs. Mississippi State (4-0)

Stadium: Davis Wade Stadium | Location: Starkville, MS

Few atmospheres are going to be more amped up this weekend than Starkville as the Alabama Crimson Tide come to Mississippi State to play Super Kamario and the unbeaten Bulldogs. There are big concerns for the home team in this matchup: the offensive line has been problematic in pass protection, and Alabama has very athletic pass rushers; Keelon Russell is getting very comfortable and looks fantastic in this offense; and the Crimson Tide have a ton of length in the secondary to go against a relatively undersized receiving corps. That written, Kamario Taylor is playing at a remarkably high level, and the Bulldogs have a quick-strike offense that should have every single opponent wary, particularly when trying to deal with all of that cowbell. Mississippi State fans despise Ole Miss, but Alabama might be the team they want to be more than any other.
3. Michigan @ Minnesota
Date: October 3 | Time: Noon | TV: FOX | AP Rank: Not Ranked

Records: Michigan (3-1) vs. Minnesota (3-1)

Stadium: Huntington Bank Stadium | Location: Minneapolis, MN

Fans everywhere outside Ann Arbor likely celebrated the twist of karmic justice that saw the Iowa Hawkeyes complete a pass in the end zone as time expired and walk out of the Big House with a one-point victory over Michigan. More than the defeat, results elsewhere lead me to believe that Michigan is just particularly good. Western Michigan got shelled, Oklahoma was humbled again by Georgia and looks broken, and the Wolverines again failed to get much going on offense. Michigan is averaging only four yards per rush (75th nationally) and just 200.8 passing yards per game (86th nationally). The defense is really strong, but the offense isn’t magically going to take a leap forward. Minnesota got blasted at home by Mississippi State, but the Gophers rarely lose at home, and Michigan’s pedestrian offense ensures nearly every game is going to be a nail-biter.
4. UCF at Houston
Date: October 3 | Time: Noon | TV: ESPN2 | AP Rank: UCF (NR) at #20 Houston

Records: UCF (3-1) at Houston (3-1)

Stadium: TDECU Stadium | Location: Houston, TX

The UCF Knights are 3-1 but will remain without expected starting quarterback Alonza Barnett after he injured his hamstring against Pitt. The offense struggles without him, but the Knights managed to knock off TCU, and they now hit the road to play the Houston Cougars. Willie Fritz’s team played a close game against Oregon State, lost a heartbreaker to Texas Tech, and then played sloppily against Georgia Southern. Giving up 28 points to the Sun Belt squad is a concern, and UCF has athletes that could make this game more interesting than it should be if the Cougars are looking ahead to a tough three-game stretch of Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Utah.
5. Ohio State at Iowa
Date: October 3 | Time: 3:30 PM ET | TV: CBS | AP Rank: #5 Ohio State vs. #14 Iowa

Records: Ohio State (4-0) vs. Iowa (4-0)

Stadium: Kinnick Stadium | Location: Iowa City, IA

Playing against the Iowa Hawkeyes, particularly in Kinnick Stadium, is never easy. Ohio State has a superhero at wide receiver in Jeremiah Smith Jr., but the Buckeyes’ defense has looked vulnerable. For instance, the defense is allowing 274.3 yards per game (15th nationally), and four yards per play, and they are just 52nd in the country in third-down defense. Everyone knows what Iowa’s strategy is going to be in this game: control the ball and dominate time of possession, convert on short third downs and stay on schedule, force a turnover or two as Ohio State presses on offense, win the special teams battle and be alive in the fourth quarter with a chance to win. The Hawkeyes played Indiana very tough at Kinnick a season ago, and they are riding high after the last-second win over Michigan.
6. Florida at Missouri
Date: October 3 | Time: 3:30 | TV: ABC | AP Rank: #8 Florida vs. #25 Missouri

Records: Florida (4-0) vs. Missouri (3-1)

Stadium: Memorial Stadium | Location: Columbia, MO

The spot for the Florida Gators this week reminds me quite a bit of what Jon Sumrall’s team experienced last week, but the shoe might be on the other foot this time. Florida was a surprise favorite against Ole Miss after the Rebels earned an emotional victory over the LSU Tigers the previous week. They came to Gainesville, struggled to rev the engine again, and were dismantled by Florida. This week, it’s Florida that is flying on cloud nine, and they travel to Missouri. Austin Simmons is very talented, and the Gators have looked vulnerable on defense in both SEC games so far.
7. Kentucky at South Carolina
Date: October 3 | Time: 4:15 | TV: SEC Network | AP Rank: #24 Kentucky at South Carolina

Records: Kentucky (3-1) at South Carolina (2-2)

Stadium: Williams-Brice Stadium | Location: Columbia, SC

The South Carolina Gamecocks might be in free fall, and Shane Beamer is now in a very hot seat. A good start disintegrated quickly as South Carolina was beaten by Mississippi State and then dismantled by the Alabama Crimson Tide. LaNorris Sellers continues to commit awful turnovers, and the secondary looks worse than it has at any point in Beamer’s tenure. Kentucky’s defense is suspect, but they have already won at Texas A&M, and the atmosphere will be tense, with Gamecocks fans ready to turn on the team if things start to go poorly.
8. Purdue at Illinois
Date: October 3 | Time: 4:15 PM ET | TV: BTN | AP Rank: Not Ranked

Records: Purdue (1-3) at Illinois (2-2)

Stadium: Gies Memorial Stadium | Location: Champaign, IL

Purdue doesn’t have anywhere near the athletes the required to battle with Notre Dame but for the most part, the Boilermakers have an efficient offense that is capable of keeping them in games against bad or decent teams. Enter the Illinois Fighting Illini. Bret Bielema fired his defensive coordinator after a brutal start to the season and they now return home looking for any kind of defensive identity. Purdue has enough firepower to keep this close and it could turn into an entertaining shootout as both teams struggle to get a stop. Can the Boilers actually get a Big Ten win? Probably not…but Illinois and their woeful defense gives them a chance.
9. BYU at TCU
Date: October 3 | Time: 7:00 PM ET | TV: ESPN | AP Rank: #10 BYU at TCU

Records: BYU (4-0) at TCU (2-2)

Stadium: Amon G. Carter Stadium | Location: Fort Worth, TX

The Big 12 was largely expected to be a coronation of Texas Tech. Still, the Red Raiders have looked vulnerable, and teams like BYU and Utah are very much entering the conversation. Of course, BYU has not looked like a dominant machine either. The Cougars beat Arizona by only 11 at home and were far from dominant against Colorado State. TCU is a bit of a mess, but the Horned Frogs are at home, and the Cougars have spent a lot of time looking ahead to the October 17 clash against Notre Dame. If they lack sharpness and TCU plays with the desperation they should be showing in this game, it could be closer than expected.
10. Baylor at Arizona State
Date: October 3 | Time: 10:30 PM ET | TV: ESPN | AP Rank: Not Ranked

Records: Baylor (3-1) at Arizona State (2-1)

Stadium: Mountain America Stadium | Location: Tempe, AZ

The Arizona State Sun Devils won a sloppy game at Wembley Stadium and had a week off to reacclimate. They now welcome the Baylor Bears to the desert, and DJ Lagway is getting into rhythm after missing two games due to an ankle injury. He was pretty bad against Colorado last week, but Lagway has plenty of talent to take advantage of Arizona State's porous defense. Baylor’s defense has been fairly stout this season, surrendering only 13 points to Colorado and just 17 to Auburn in the opener.
1. Penn State at Northwestern
Date: October 2 | Time: 8:00 PM ET | TV: FOX | AP Rank: NR | Records: Penn State - 3-1 Northwestern: 2-1 | Stadium: Ryan Field | Location: Evanston, IL

The Northwestern Wildcats open their new stadium on Friday night with a primetime clash against the Penn State Nittany Lions. Matt Campbell’s team collapsed in the second half against the Wisconsin Badgers and lost 24-20, effectively ending the conversation about Penn State being a College Football Playoff team. All that discussion wasn't happening because a lot of people thought the Nittany Lions were a really talented team; it was happening because of a perceived easy schedule. A favorable schedule does not make a good team, and Penn State has decidedly average personnel. Northwestern gave the Indiana Hoosiers all they wanted in Bloomington, and Chip Kelly is still one of the better offensive minds in the sport. Northwestern has the better quarterback and the better pass catchers, and I think they have a significant advantage in team speed.

Ranking the Top 10 Potential Upsets for College Football Week 5

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