NCAAF · 19 minutes ago

10 Most Overrated Teams in College Football Going Into Week 5

Grant White

Host · Writer

10. Kentucky Wildcats
Off to a 3-1 start, including a marquee victory over Texas A&M as +17.5 underdogs, the Kentucky Wildcats have entered the Top 25. Still, their success is contradicted by their underlying metrics, and it won't be long before the Wildcats fall.

Despite its 1-1 conference record, Kentucky has been out-gained and out-possessed in both of its SEC matchups. Their wins against Youngstown State and South Alabama were nothing more than formalities, but there are still some red flags. Both teams marched for over 300 yards, and Kentucky struggled to hold onto the football in both contests.

Don't be fooled by their ranking -- we still can't take this Kentucky team seriously. If they earn two more wins this season, it should be considered a monumental success.
1. Ole Miss Rebels
We vastly overestimated the Ole Miss Rebels.

The Rebels entered Week 4 as the fourth-ranked team in the country. Moreover, they should have had no problems beating up on Florida's underwhelming team instead. Instead, Ole Miss went out and laid an egg, dropping a decisive 52-28 decision.

Ole Miss is off this week, but it is still getting way too much credit. They aren't the ninth-ranked team in the country, nor are they serious contenders in the SEC.
2. USC Trojans
We've been warning you for weeks -- the USC Trojans aren't a good football team.

USC had its hands full in Week 4, hosting the Oregon Ducks in a crucial Big Ten battle. This game was supposed to be a lot closer than it was. The Trojans closed as +3.5 underdogs, and didn't come close to validating that position. They let the Ducks go off for over 500 yards while getting torched for 41.

This is the typical pattern we've come to expect from USC once the conference schedule starts.
3. Louisville Cardinals
A week after handing 16th-ranked SMU a defeat, the Louisville Cardinals have already dropped out of the Top 25.

The Cardinals had no answer for Wake Forest's offense. The Demon Deacons put up over 400 yards of offense, looking equally capable through the air and on the ground. At the start of the game, the betting market had Louisville out in front as -12.5 chalk. By the end, they lost by three.

Curiously, the Cardinals are now installed as -6.5 favorites over NC State in Week 5. Don't be fooled; Louisville shouldn't be favored in this spot.
4. Missouri Tigers
Defense was supposed to be the Missouri Tigers' forte. Instead, it will be another reason why Mizzou fails to live up to the hype again in 2026.

Missouri got off to a 3-0 start, beating up on inferior opponents and still getting burned on offense. After last week's 31-24 loss to Mississippi State, we have even fewer reasons to believe in the Tigers.

Keep in mind, this was supposed to be Mizzou's warm-up for the rest of its SEC schedule. With Florida, Ole Miss, Texas, and Georgia on the horizon, it won't be long before they completely fall out of the Top 25.
5. Penn State Nittany Lions
You have to be some kind of bad to lose to the Wisconsin Badgers. Alas, that's exactly what we expected from this overrated Penn State Nittany Lions squad.

We all saw Penn State implode last season. With several key departures, it was unlikely they would crawl over the low bar they set in 2025, and that's exactly what we're seeing play out this season.

Penn State has a short week against an upstart Northwestern team. We're not betting on the Nittany Lions covering the short spread.
6. Oklahoma Sooners
It's easy to kick the Oklahoma Sooners when they're down. But to be fair, we haven't liked their chances since the start of the season.

Not surprisingly, Oklahoma was blasted by the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 4. For some reason, people still believe in this lackluster collection of underperforming football players. The Sooners lack identity, culture, and proper schemes to make the most of their offense.

On a bye week in Week 5 and then straight into the Red River Rivalry, Oklahoma's season is over before it even got started.
7. Michigan Wolverines
We've been apprehensive about the Michigan Wolverines chances all season. All they did was validate those feelings with another brutal performance at home.

After being gifted a Week 1 win versus Western Michigan, the Wolverines survived Oklahoma and UTEP. As soon as they were tasked with getting by a quality opponent, they fell into their usual traps.

The betting market continues to overvalue the Wolverines, and that's evidenced by their Week 5 betting line versus Minnesota. If they can't get past Iowa at home, we suspect they will fall versus the Gophers.
8. Indiana Hoosiers
Sure, the Indiana Hoosiers got by the Northwestern Wildcats in Week 4. But their six-point win came nowhere close to covering the spread, and the Hoosiers' strengths aren't as prominent as anticipated.

Northwestern was in striking distance throughout the contest, a characteristic that is unbecoming of the defending champs. Indiana is missing the killer instinct that helped it run the table last season, and that will be put to the test against better teams than Northwestern.

The Hoosiers may be undefeated, but their time in the Top 10 will be short-lived if they maintain their current form.
9. Texas Longhorns
Again, the Texas Longhorns prevailed; however, we grow increasingly wary of their championship aspirations.

Texas bested 14th-ranked Tennessee in Week 4, again failing to cover the spread. Their 4-0 record stands in stark contrast to their 1-3 mark against the spread, a concern amplified by their recent box scores.

Against Tennessee, the Longhorns mustered just 262 yards of total offense, gained 14 first downs, and lost the possession battle. That's a common thread intertwined throughout most of their early-season results, and it won't be long before it all starts to unravel.
10. Kentucky Wildcats
Off to a 3-1 start, including a marquee victory over Texas A&M as +17.5 underdogs, the Kentucky Wildcats have entered the Top 25. Still, their success is contradicted by their underlying metrics, and it won't be long before the Wildcats fall.

Despite its 1-1 conference record, Kentucky has been out-gained and out-possessed in both of its SEC matchups. Their wins against Youngstown State and South Alabama were nothing more than formalities, but there are still some red flags. Both teams marched for over 300 yards, and Kentucky struggled to hold onto the football in both contests.

Don't be fooled by their ranking -- we still can't take this Kentucky team seriously. If they earn two more wins this season, it should be considered a monumental success.
1. Ole Miss Rebels
We vastly overestimated the Ole Miss Rebels.

The Rebels entered Week 4 as the fourth-ranked team in the country. Moreover, they should have had no problems beating up on Florida's underwhelming team instead. Instead, Ole Miss went out and laid an egg, dropping a decisive 52-28 decision.

Ole Miss is off this week, but it is still getting way too much credit. They aren't the ninth-ranked team in the country, nor are they serious contenders in the SEC.

10 Most Overrated Teams in College Football Going Into Week 5

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