Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Battle of Struggling Giants in Week 4

Week 4 Showdown: Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

The Narrative: Who Falls to 1–3?

It’s unusual to frame a Ravens-Chiefs matchup around desperation, but that’s exactly where we are in Week 4. Baltimore enters as a slight road favorite, while Kansas City sits as a small home underdog. The storyline isn’t so much about who wins, but who drops to 1–3 and faces the uphill battle of playoff probability. Since 2000, only about 15% of teams starting 1–3 have reached the postseason, and that stat hangs heavy over this matchup.

Ravens: Offensive Firepower, Defensive Struggles

Baltimore became the first team in Super Bowl era history to score 100+ points in their first three games and still have a losing record. The reason is simple: defense. While Lamar Jackson has been sensational—9 touchdowns, 0 interceptions through three weeks—the Ravens’ defense has crumbled in key moments, particularly late in games.

The upside? Baltimore’s offense travels well. Jackson’s dual-threat ability and his chemistry with Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews give the Ravens a consistent scoring punch. Against a Kansas City defense that bends but rarely breaks, expect Baltimore to try to push the pace early.

Chiefs: Mahomes the Home Underdog

Patrick Mahomes has made his career defying the odds, but there’s an odd wrinkle here: Mahomes is 0–2 straight up as a home underdog. Normally, bettors rush to back him when points are offered, but Kansas City’s offense is still searching for answers. Missing explosive weapons outside of Travis Kelce has left Mahomes forcing longer drives with little margin for error.

Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has been the stabilizer. Expect him to scheme adjustments after halftime, which has been a trend for the Chiefs in recent years.

Betting Breakdown

• Spread: Ravens (-1.5 to -2 depending on the book)

• Total: Around 47.5, with notable splits between halves.

• First Half Lean: Baltimore’s offense has been electric out of the gate, while Kansas City often needs time to adjust. A Ravens first-half team total over could be the sharper play.

• Second Half Total: At 23.5, the under is appealing. Kansas City’s defense historically tightens after halftime, and Baltimore may go conservative if they’re protecting a lead.

• Prop Market: Jackson’s passing + rushing combo props remain in play given his early efficiency. For Kansas City, Kelce overs are the safest angle, as Mahomes leans heavily on him in critical spots.

Prediction: Ravens Steal One at Arrowhead

As tempting as it is to back Mahomes as an underdog, this feels like a Ravens spot. Baltimore’s defense will bend again, but Lamar’s offense looks too sharp right now to fade. Combine that with Kansas City’s offensive limitations, and the Ravens should edge this one.

Pick: Ravens -1.5

Lean: First Half Over / Second Half Under 23.5

You can read all about what’s going on in the National Football League at SportsGrid.com.