NFL · 2 months ago

Ranking All 16 AFC Teams by Their Title Chances Right Now

Sportsgrid Staff

Host · Writer

Week 18 brings clarity to a chaotic AFC title race that’s been flipped on its head over the final month of the season. Former contenders are already packing it in, while a handful of teams control their own destiny with seeding, byes, and home-field advantage on the line. With AFC Championship futures shifting rapidly, here’s how the Conference stacks up heading into the regular-season finale.

AFC Teams Eliminated From the Playoffs Before Week 17

Indianapolis Colts – Eliminated in Week 17

AFC Championship Winner Previous Week’s Odds: +50000 –> This Week’s Odds: OTB

Philip Rivers‘ comeback was a nice story, but the Indianapolis Colts were trending in the wrong direction well before Daniel Jones was lost for the season. Once teams were able to stack the box, the effectiveness of all-world running back Jonathan Taylor was neutralized, at least for his high standards.

Better luck next year, white and blue.

8) Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC Championship Winner Previous Week’s Odds: +1400 –> This Week’s Odds: +3500

The Pittsburgh Steelers may have shot themselves in the foot at the worst possible time. First, DK Metcalf grabbed a fan two weeks ago. Second, Metcalf gets suspended for the regular season’s final two games. Third, the Steelers dropped last week’s game in Cleveland as -3.5-point favorites, which would have clinched the division and a playoff spot. Fourth, win or go home.

As +3.5 home dogs, there may not be enough dark rooms on the planet to get Aaron Rodgers ready to pull Pittsburgh from this abyss.

Week 18 Opponent: vs Baltimore Ravens

7) Los Angeles Chargers

AFC Championship Winner Previous Week’s Odds: +750 –> This Week’s Odds: +1000

Head coach Jim Harbaugh is choosing preservation over idealization this week. The bench boss has already declared Justin Herbert and multiple starters will rest this week. It’s probably the right move for a conference championship run, as the Bolts are already pigeonholed into one of the seeds 5-7.

The other thing to consider, longer term, is that Herbert still hasn’t looked 100% since breaking his non-throwing hand a few weeks ago and wearing an awkward-looking cast. With the O-line beatup as well, this gives them a chance to get healthy and try and do a better job of protecting their franchise quarterback, who took a career-high 54 sacks.

It’s not hard to see why LA is an 11.5-point road dog against the AFC West champs.

6) Baltimore Ravens

Week 18 Opponent: at Denver Broncos

AFC Championship Winner Previous Week’s Odds: +5000 –> This Week’s Odds: +950

The Baltimore Ravens have their own destiny in their hands after a dominant statement win in Green Bay last week. While Derrick Henry was the story after rushing for over 200 yards and four TDs, all eyes are on the status of Lamar Jackson this week. Jackson practiced on Wednesday, after missing every practice last week as well as the win over the Packers.

With their franchise pivot trending in the right direction, the Ravens are -3.5-point road favorites in a must-win game against their biggest rival.

Week 18 Opponent: at Pittsburgh Steelers

5) Houston Texans

AFC Championship Winner Previous Week’s Odds: +600 –> This Week’s Odds: +550

You know the No. 1 defense in the NFL must be salivating facing a rookie quarterback with just 33 career passing attempts in Riley Leonard. However, it may not matter to the Houston Texans, who appear to be slotted in as the No. 5 seed unless a major upset happens to their division rival on the next slide. As they say, on any given Sunday. Expect Houston get its end of the job done in front of the NRG Stadium crowd as -10.5-point home favorites this week.

Week 18 Opponent: vs Indianapolis Colts

4) Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC Championship Winner Previous Week’s Odds: +500 –> This Week’s Odds: +550

The Jacksonville Jaguars still have an outside shot at grabbing the Conference’s top seed and a bye, but they need a few moneyline miracles to happen against the following two slides.

If the Jags take care of business as -12.5-point home favorites against the last-place team in the AFC South, the division is theirs. Home field early on certainly helps their cause once the AFC’s Elimination Chamber begins.

Week 18 Opponent: vs Tennessee Titans

3) Buffalo Bills

AFC Championship Winner Previous Week’s Odds: +400 –> This Week’s Odds: +500

Josh Allen (foot) is trending in the right direction after visibly limping around during last week’s rain-soaked home loss to the Eagles. That said, with Buffalo’s playoff spot guaranteed to land somewhere between the No. 5 and 7 seed, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him rested or play just some of Week 18.

The Bills are -7.5-point home favorites against the division’s last-place team.

Week 18 Opponent: vs New York Jets

2) New England Patriots

AFC Championship Winner Previous Week’s Odds: +400 –> This Week’s Odds: +450

The New England Patriots have already knotted up their first AFC East crown since a fellow by the name of Tom Brady was leading the team. While they will need some help to secure a first-round bye, they are sure to be a tough out at home as they go after their first AFC Championship since 2019.

While Drake Maye‘s bunch is a 10.5-point favorite over Quinn Ewers and company, the top seed isn’t an option unless our next slide falters.

Week 18 Opponent: vs Miami Dolphins

1) Denver Broncos

AFC Championship Winner Previous Week’s Odds: +380 –> This Week’s Odds: +290

The Denver Broncos are in the driver’s seat for the AFC’s top seed after clinching their first AFC West title since Peyton Manning was at the helm in 2015. In case you forgot, the current Mr. Manningcast led the Broncos to a Super Bowl title that year. Now, a win gets the Orange Crush a first-round bye.

Denver is an 11.5-point home favorite against the Bolts, who will not have Justin Herbert in this one.

Week 18 Opponent: vs Los Angeles Chargers

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