NFL · 2 hours ago

2026 NFL Draft: ESPN Highlights Fatal Flaws For the Top 10 Quarterbacks

John Canady

Host · Writer

Sawyer Robertson, Baylor
Raw 2024-25 Stats: 23 starts, 533-for-872 passing, 6,752 yards, 61.1% completion rate, 59 TDs, 2.3% INT rate, 4.1% sack rate, 46.2% success rate, 7.1 yards per dropback, 82 non-sack rushes for 500 yards and seven TDs

Total QBR Rank (out of 84): 17th (76.4)

Why He Might Fail: "There are a lot of guys in this batch who throw quickly and don't put the ball at risk. He's not the safest of the bunch." - Bill Connelly

SportsGrid’s Take: Sawyer Robertson put up some of the most eye-popping production in the class, throwing for 6,752 yards and 59 touchdowns, but questions about consistency and overall polish remain. His 61.1% completion rate and 2.3% interception rate point to a quarterback who can create big plays but also leaves room for mistakes. Robertson operated in high-volume, high-scoring environments, which inflated his counting stats but didn’t always translate to efficiency. Without a standout trait separating him from the rest of the pack, he projects as a developmental option who will need to refine his decision-making to carve out a role at the next level.
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
Raw 2024-25 Stats: 27 starts, 538-for-765 passing, 6,539 yards, 70.3% completion rate, 57 TDs, 1.6% INT rate, 7.9% sack rate, 52% success rate, 7.5 yards per dropback, 111 non-sack rushes for 784 yards and nine TDs

Total QBR Rank (out of 84): seventh (79.4)

Why He Might Fail: "He's going to take a lot of hits. Mendoza's ability to learn from mistakes was otherworldly, but when a team was able to pressure him, it could surprise him a bit." - Bill Connelly

SportsGrid's Take: The concern about Fernando Mendoza's ability to deal with pressure early on is fair, but his response to pressure in the National Championship game against Miami is why my concerns are minimal. Mendoza proved he's willing to play physically, especially when evading pressure out of the pocket. While that may not be what a team wants their franchise QB to do when he's on the move, the more experience he gets, the better he will be at dealing with opposing defenses dialing up a rush.
Ty Simpson, Alabama
Raw 2024-25 Stats: 15 starts, 319-for-498 passing, 3,734 yards, 64.1% completion rate, 28 TDs, 1% INT rate, 5.5% sack rate, 44.6% success rate, 6.6 yards per dropback, 69 non-sack rushes for 348 yards and three TDs

Total QBR Rank (out of 84): 18th (76.0)

Why He Might Fail: "He was taking the easy way out most of the time... and he threw only 12.7% of his passes 20-plus yards downfield." - Bill Connelly

SportsGrid’s Take: Ty Simpson profiles as one of the safer quarterbacks in this class, but that safety comes with limitations that are hard to ignore. His ability to protect the football — highlighted by just a 1% interception rate and 28 touchdowns — gives him a strong baseline as a game manager. However, the lack of aggressiveness downfield shows up in his 6.6 yards per dropback and 11.7 yards per completion, raising questions about whether he can elevate an offense rather than operate it. Simpson’s pocket presence and efficiency will give him a chance early, but unless he proves he can consistently push the ball vertically, his ceiling may be capped at a low-risk, low-reward starter.
Carson Beck, Miami
Raw 2024-25 Stats: 29 starts, 628-for-915 passing, 7,298 yards, 68.6% completion rate, 58 TDs, 2.6% INT rate, 3.8% sack rate, 47.4% success rate, 7.3 yards per dropback, 81 non-sack rushes for 380 yards and three TDs

Total QBR Rank (out of 84): fifth (81.3)

Why He Might Fail: "If the read wasn't there, something bad was happening... It's not clear he'll be able to develop further." - Bill Connelly

SportsGrid’s Take: Carson Beck brings one of the most experienced profiles in the class, and his production reflects that. The quarterback has operated in rhythm-based systems that have allowed him to thrive, but they have also masked concerns about his ability to create outside of structure. His limited play extension and reliance on short-area throws show up in his 7.3 yards per dropback, suggesting much of his success came within the system rather than beyond it. Beck’s experience gives him a relatively high floor, but if he can’t adjust once defenses take away his first read, his transition to the next level could be far more challenging than his numbers suggest.
Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
Raw 2024-25 Stats: 22 starts, 531-for-813 passing, 5,979 yards, 65.3% completion rate, 41 TDs, 2.1% INT rate, 3.7% sack rate, 46.2% success rate, 6.8 yards per dropback, 32 non-sack rushes for 178 yards and four TDs

Total QBR Rank (out of 84): 13th (77.0)

Why He Might Fail: "You squint to see the requisite upside, even watching him in his good season." - Bill Connelly

SportsGrid’s Take: Garrett Nussmeier is one of the toughest evaluations in this class, largely due to fluctuating production and circumstances. His overall numbers — 5,979 passing yards and 41 touchdowns — are solid, but they don’t jump off the page compared to other top prospects. The dip in explosiveness, reflected in his 6.8 yards per dropback, highlights a quarterback who leaned heavily into conservative decision-making. While that approach could translate well in certain situations, it also raises concerns about whether he has the high-end traits needed to threaten defenses consistently. If Nussmeier can rediscover the balance between efficiency and aggressiveness, there’s a path forward, but right now, much of his upside still feels projection-based rather than proven.
Taylen Green, Arkansas
Raw 2024-25 Stats: 24 starts, 428-for-707 passing, 5,868 yards, 60.5% completion rate, 34 TDs, 2.8% INT rate, 7.7% sack rate, 48% success rate, 7.4 yards per dropback, 236 non-sack rushes for 1,837 yards and 16 TDs

Total QBR Rank (out of 84): 15th (76.7)

Why He Might Fail: "His bad plays were worse (and more frequent) than anyone else's on this list." - Bill Connelly

SportsGrid’s Take: Taylen Green is one of the most electrifying quarterbacks in this class, but also one of the most volatile. His dual-threat ability jumps off the page with 5,868 passing yards and 1,837 rushing yards with 16 touchdowns on the ground, giving him one of the highest ceilings in the draft. However, the inconsistency is just as glaring, reflected in his 60.5% completion rate and 2.8% interception rate. Green thrives when playing freely and attacking defenses, but that same aggressiveness often leads to costly mistakes. If he can clean up the decision-making while maintaining his explosiveness, he could outperform his draft slot, but right now, he remains a high-risk, high-reward projection.
Drew Allar. Penn State
Raw 2024-25 Stats: 22 starts, 365-for-553 passing, 4,427 yards, 66% completion rate, 32 TDs, 2% INT rate, 4.3% sack rate, 50.1% success rate, 7.4 yards per dropback, 107 non-sack rushes for 638 yards and seven TDs

Total QBR Rank (out of 84): 24th (73.0)

Why He Might Fail: "He threw only 8% of his passes 20 or more yards downfield... that shouldn't happen." - Bill Connelly

SportsGrid’s Take: Drew Allar looks the part of an NFL quarterback with his size and arm talent, but his play style hasn’t consistently matched those tools. His production — 4,427 passing yards and 32 touchdowns — paired with a 50.1% success rate, shows efficiency, but not dominance. The biggest concern lies in his unwillingness to push the ball downfield, which caps the explosiveness of an offense built around his physical gifts. Allar has shown he can manage games and limit mistakes, but unless he starts leveraging his arm strength to attack deeper windows, he risks becoming a quarterback who plays below his natural ceiling.
Cole Payton, North Dakota
Raw 2024-25 Stats: 13 starts, 171-for-240 passing, 2,842 yards, 71.3% completion rate, 18 TDs, 2.1% INT rate, 8.4% sack rate, 10.4 yards per pass attempt, 135 non-sack rushes for 1,069 yards and 14 TDs

Total QBR Rank (out of 84): N/A

Why He Might Fail: "He was playing a different game." - Bill Connelly

SportsGrid’s Take: Cole Payton is one of the most intriguing small-school prospects in this class, blending efficiency with elite production at his level. His numbers — 2,842 passing yards, 1,069 rushing yards, and 32 total touchdowns — highlight a quarterback who can take over games in multiple ways. However, the transition to the next level raises real concerns, especially given how often he held onto the ball, resulting in an 8.4% sack rate. Payton’s tendency to rely on extending plays and hunting big plays worked against lower-level competition, but it could become a major issue against faster, more disciplined defenses. His upside is undeniable, but so is the developmental curve.
Cade Klubnik, Clemson
Raw 2024-25 Stats: 26 starts, 565-for-878 passing, 6,582 yards, 64.4% completion rate, 52 TDs, 1.4% INT rate, 4.4% sack rate, 44.9% success rate, 6.9 yards per dropback, 162 non-sack rushes for 851 yards and 11 TDs

Total QBR Rank (out of 84): 31st (70.6)

Why He Might Fail: "He’s not going to elevate his supporting cast." - Bill Connelly

SportsGrid’s Take: Cade Klubnik has put together a productive college career, backed by 6,582 passing yards and 52 touchdowns, while taking care of the football with a 1.4% interception rate. Despite that, questions remain about his ability to be a difference-maker at the next level. His 6.9 yards per dropback and middling efficiency metrics suggest a quarterback who operates within structure but doesn’t consistently create beyond it. Klubnik’s experience and mobility give him a solid floor. Still, without showing he can elevate talent around him, he may project more as a steady option rather than a true franchise-caliber quarterback.
Luke Altmyer, Illinois
Raw 2024-25 Stats: 26 starts, 457-for-712 passing, 5,724 yards, 64.2% completion rate, 44 TDs, 1.5% INT rate, 8.2% sack rate, 47% success rate, 6.9 yards per dropback, 135 non-sack rushes for 890 yards and nine TDs

Total QBR Rank (out of 84): 22nd (74.1)

Why He Might Fail: "There weren't enough explosive passes to offset the hits he takes." - Bill Connelly

SportsGrid’s Take: Luke Altmyer quietly produced strong numbers in a tough environment, totaling 5,724 passing yards and 44 touchdowns while keeping turnovers low with a 1.5% interception rate. However, his profile raises concerns about sustainability at the next level, particularly with an 8.2% sack rate and limited big-play production. Altmyer’s ability to extend plays is a double-edged sword, as it often leads to unnecessary hits and stalled drives. While his efficiency and toughness stand out, he’ll need to find a better balance between playmaking and protection to succeed against NFL defenses.
Sawyer Robertson, Baylor
Raw 2024-25 Stats: 23 starts, 533-for-872 passing, 6,752 yards, 61.1% completion rate, 59 TDs, 2.3% INT rate, 4.1% sack rate, 46.2% success rate, 7.1 yards per dropback, 82 non-sack rushes for 500 yards and seven TDs

Total QBR Rank (out of 84): 17th (76.4)

Why He Might Fail: "There are a lot of guys in this batch who throw quickly and don't put the ball at risk. He's not the safest of the bunch." - Bill Connelly

SportsGrid’s Take: Sawyer Robertson put up some of the most eye-popping production in the class, throwing for 6,752 yards and 59 touchdowns, but questions about consistency and overall polish remain. His 61.1% completion rate and 2.3% interception rate point to a quarterback who can create big plays but also leaves room for mistakes. Robertson operated in high-volume, high-scoring environments, which inflated his counting stats but didn’t always translate to efficiency. Without a standout trait separating him from the rest of the pack, he projects as a developmental option who will need to refine his decision-making to carve out a role at the next level.
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
Raw 2024-25 Stats: 27 starts, 538-for-765 passing, 6,539 yards, 70.3% completion rate, 57 TDs, 1.6% INT rate, 7.9% sack rate, 52% success rate, 7.5 yards per dropback, 111 non-sack rushes for 784 yards and nine TDs

Total QBR Rank (out of 84): seventh (79.4)

Why He Might Fail: "He's going to take a lot of hits. Mendoza's ability to learn from mistakes was otherworldly, but when a team was able to pressure him, it could surprise him a bit." - Bill Connelly

SportsGrid's Take: The concern about Fernando Mendoza's ability to deal with pressure early on is fair, but his response to pressure in the National Championship game against Miami is why my concerns are minimal. Mendoza proved he's willing to play physically, especially when evading pressure out of the pocket. While that may not be what a team wants their franchise QB to do when he's on the move, the more experience he gets, the better he will be at dealing with opposing defenses dialing up a rush.

2026 NFL Draft: ESPN Highlights Fatal Flaws For the Top 10 Quarterbacks

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