NFL Divisional Round: Bills vs Broncos Best Bets & Predictions
Grant White
Host · Writer
The Buffalo Bills have been forgotten by most. They started the year on a four-game winning streak, shooting to the top of the Super Bowl futures board. While they’ve faltered since then, the Bills proved that they can’t be taken lightly in the playoffs. The AFC East runner-ups hope to continue their winning streak against the Denver Broncos in the Divisional Round.
Check out what bets we’re making in this Divisional Round clash between the Bills and Broncos!
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Where to Watch Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos
- Stadium: Empower Field at Mile High
- Location: Denver, CO
- Where to Watch: CBS
- Time: Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET
Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos Betting Odds
- Spread: BUF -1.5 (+100) | DEN +1.5 (-122)
- Total: Over 46.5 (-108) | Under (-112)
- Moneyline: BUF -108 | DEN -108
Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos Kalshi Odds
- Chance: BUF 50% | DEN 50%
- Spread: DEN -2.5 Yes 46¢ | No 56¢
- Total: Over 47.5 Yes 47¢ | No 55¢
Like the Wild Card Round, the betting market has moved against the Bills early in the week. Buffalo was installed as short -1.5 road favorites for each contest, albeit closing as underdogs versus the Jaguars. They remain the betting favorite at most sportsbooks, but the plus-money price is a sign that they could enter Saturday’s Divisional Round matchup as road underdogs again.
We know what to expect from the Bills on offense. Josh Allen will put the team on his back, airing the ball out while also taking what’s given to him on the ground. Still, Buffalo’s chances of advancing to the AFC Championship Game hinge on improved defensive execution. Last week, they gave up 381 yards to the Jags, marking a substantive deviation from their usual standard. On average, the Bills give up 306.4 yards per game and allow the fewest passing yards in the league. Further, they held each of their last two opponents to 191 yards or fewer, a benchmark they will look to enforce in Denver.
The Broncos play a similar brand of football. They emphasize defensive structure, turning to the air for most of their offensive yards. However, that strategy is unlikely to pay off versus the Bills. As noted, Buffalo deploys one of the best secondaries in the league. Combined with their top-end pass-rush, few teams have had success throwing the ball versus the Bills. Additionally, Denver can’t offset those anticipated passing issues with its run game. RJ Harvey nets just 3.7 yards per carry, falling below 50 rushing yards in each of his last three outings.
This total is at least 10 points higher than it should be. Both teams will put their best defensive foot forward, and altitude will be a factor. Still, when push comes to shove, we trust the Bills will do more with their offensive possessions. This price could dip, widening the betting advantage. Nevertheless, at plus-money, we’re laying the points with Buffalo.
Best Bet: Under 46.5 -112, Bills -1.5 +100
The Bills have their work cut out for them in trying to get to Bo Nix. The Broncos’ quarterback has been sacked just 22 times this season, the second-fewest in the NFL. Denver’s offensive line has stood up to the test so far this season, but we’re betting Joey Bosa is too much for the Broncos to handle on Saturday.
Bosa is on the record for stating that he needs to play better in the Divisional Round. The five-time Pro Bowler has just five sacks on the season and hasn’t pulled down an opposing quarterback since the end of November. Nevertheless, he has recorded five quarterback hits over his last six outings, with 13 of his 16 quarterback hits coming over the previous ten games. Through his first eight games in a Bills uniform, Bosa totaled four sacks. As inferred by the constant pressure he’s applying, it’s just a matter of time before he gets back in the sack column.
As good as the Broncos have been at neutralizing the pass-rush, we’ve seen chinks in their armor more recently. Denver’s offensive line has allowed six sacks over its last three games, with all but two of those coming in Week 18.
Led by Bosa, we’re expecting a more valiant effort on the defensive line at Mile High. The Bills can deceive the Broncos with mixed looks on the line, freeing up Bosa off the edge. At the current betting prices, we’re counting on Bosa to get to Nix at home.
Best Bet: Joey Bosa to Record a Sack +144
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NFL Divisional Round: Bills vs Broncos Best Bets & Predictions
- Under 46.5 -112
- Bills -1.5 +100
- Joey Bosa to Record a Sack +144
We’ve got three plays lined up for Saturday’s Divisional Round showdown between the Bills and Broncos. We expect a low-scoring affair, with Buffalo covering the short spread on the strength of a more robust offensive showing. Additionally, we’re backing Joey Bosa to record a sack in the player prop market.
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