NFL Futures Betting: Top Teams with the Biggest Odds Shift
Grant White
Host · Writer
Some of these moves were expected. Others were not.
We’re now three days into the NFL free agency period, not including the legal tampering period, which saw even more seismic shifts in the landscape, and those moves are having ripple effects on the betting.
Already, we’ve seen several teams surge up the Super Bowl futures board, while others have seen more pronounced moves in the Conference or Divisional markets.
These teams have seen the most significant moves since the start of the legal tampering period.
Steelers Looking Dangerous
Arguably, the most notable move of the 2024 free agency period was the Pittsburgh Steelers signing Russell Wilson. The Denver Broncos released the former Super Bowl-winning quarterback, who decided to eat an $85 million dead cap hit rather than have Wilson suit up for them this year. In need of an upgrade under center, the Steelers swooped in and inked Wilson to a one-year league minimum contract.
Scorching Odds
Predictably, this move set the futures market on fire, precipitating a Steelers’ boost in every futures market. Pittsburgh has collected 68% of the bets and 54% of the handle to win the AFC North. Sharp bettors might recognize the discrepancy between tickets and money, implying that it’s primarily public money flooding this market segment. That’s also reflected in the betting price, with the Steelers moving modestly from +1200 to +1100.
However, more professional bettors are lining up to back them as AFC and Super Bowl Champions. With 18.3% of the bets on the Steelers to win the conference, sportsbooks have adjusted their odds from +4000 to +3500. Likewise, their price to win it all has moved to +6600 after hovering around +8000 before the Wilson signing.
Unlike the AFC North board, most of the money changing hands is coming from professional bettors. Pittsburgh has accumulated 15.1% of the handle, nearly 3.0% more than the next closest team.
More Public Money Floods Another AFC North Team
Pittsburgh isn’t the only AFC North team to make a significant move early this offseason. The Baltimore Ravens signed marquee free agent running back Derrick Henry to a two-year pact. That move sent the public into a tizzy, with money flooding in on the Ravens to win Super Bowl LIX.
Baltimore draws more bets than any other franchise, with 13.1% of Super Bowl futures tickets written on the Ravens. However, sharp bettors are steering clear of the reigning AFC North Champions, with the Ravens’ handle falling further down the list.
Texans Roundup
Through the first few days of free agency, no team has been as busy as the Houston Texans.
The Texans made a big splash, acquiring former Pro Bowl running back Joe Mixon from the Cincinnati Bengals. Further, they’ve inked six big-name free agents to contracts, including Danielle Hunter, Dalton Schultz, and Azeez Al-Shaair.
Not surprisingly, bettors have added the Texans to the list of contenders, installing them as +2200 favorites to win the Super Bowl. If you’re into tailing sharp money, 10.7% of the handle has come in on Houston, the third-highest total among all 32 franchises.
Eagles Flying Higher
Leave it to the New York Giants to do something as foolish as not re-signing former second-overall selection Saquon Barkley. The former Rookie of the Year was looking for a new squad, and he found one just a short jaunt away from his former stomping grounds.
Not that the Philadelphia Eagles needed an odds boost, but they got one anyway when they signed Barkley to a three-year $37.75 million deal.
Odds Movement
Sharp bettors got money down quickly, with Philadelphia drawing 61% of the cash to win the NFC East despite only 45% of the tickets coming in on the Eagles. Still, that did not impact their odds, with Philly holding steady as +130 chalk.
That steam also caught up with the Eagles on the NFC and Super Bowl boards. Philadelphia went from +750 to +700 after 24.6% of the money was put down on the Eagles to win the conference. They’ve also drawn 10.1% of the ticket count to win the Super Bowl.
The Impact of Kirk Cousins
We’ve all had some laughs at Kirk Cousins’s expense, but now he’s the one laughing at us. The ink hasn’t dried on his $180 million deal with the Atlanta Falcons, but it’s already profoundly impacted the betting market.
Falcons Soaring
Cousins’s new team became a betting favorite in divisional, conference, and Super Bowl betting. The Falcons were bought up to +100 to win the NFC South, +1400 to win the conference, and +3000 to clinch their first title. That represents a healthy mix of sharp and square bettors.
Pillaged Vikings
That move also had a negative impact on Cousins’s former squad, the Minnesota Vikings. Without a quality starter under center, the Vikings plummeted from +4000 to +8000 on the Super Bowl futures board, illustrating the absolute lack of faith the betting community has in the Vikings. Rightfully so, as Minnesota went 3-6 without Cousins last season.
Final Thoughts
The best part is the odds are not done moving. The legal tampering window and opening of free agency are just two of the first steps as we march back toward kick-off in September. Next up, the NFL Draft.
Stay tuned to measure the draft’s impact on these same futures boards.
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