NFL · 7 hours ago

NFL Week 1 Most Bet Player Props: TNF Seeing Lots of Action

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The NFL season kicks off with bettors already finding value in the prop markets. Week 1 features big names and key matchups that are drawing heavy action on both overs and unders. The most popular tickets are backing plays on DeVonta Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, D’Andre Swift, and Jahan Dotson.

With advanced stats, matchup context, and betting splits pointing toward specific outcomes, here’s a breakdown of BetMGM’s most heavily bet props on the Week 1 slate.

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1) DeVonta Smith Under 22.5 Longest Reception (-145)

DeVonta Smith was a touchdown machine last season with 13 scores in 13 games, but this market isn’t about finding the end zone — it’s about limiting his explosiveness. Against Dallas last year, Smith posted 134 yards and two touchdowns across two games, but the Cowboys’ pass defense allowed only 218.1 yards per game, ranking 17th in the league. With Dallas focusing on keeping big plays in front of them and A.J. Brown drawing deep targets, bettors are hammering the under on Smith’s longest catch at 22.5 yards.

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2) Tua Tagovailoa Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-105)

Tua Tagovailoa was efficient last season, posting 2,867 yards, a 72.9% completion rate, and 19 touchdowns across 11 games, good for a 101.4 passer rating. Still, his Week 1 matchup against an Indianapolis Colts defense that surrendered the seventh-most passing yards per game (229.4) and the 11th-most touchdowns (27) is still seeing big action on the under. The market leans on red-zone resistance, and with the Miami Dolphins leaning on balance, the under 1.5 passing TDs at near-even money has become one of the most popular plays.

3) D’Andre Swift Over 9.5 Receiving Yards (-175)

D’Andre Swift was a steady contributor in the passing game last year, catching 42 passes on 52 targets for 386 yards with the Chicago Bears. Against the Minnesota Vikings, he made his mark, recording four catches for 45 yards in two meetings and cashing this over both times. The Vikings’ defense gave up the fifth-most passing yards in the NFL (242 per game), though they limited running backs to just 27.2 receiving yards per game. Still, Swift only needs one or two catches to clear this modest line, which explains why the over is one of the most bet props of Week 1.

4) Jahan Dotson Over 5.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

5) Jahan Dotson Over 4.5 Receiving Yards (-130)

Both of these Jahan Dotson props are heavily bet, and for good reason. He tallied 216 receiving yards last season on 19 catches, averaging 11.4 yards per reception. Against the Dallas Cowboys, Dotson had one game with 27 yards and another with zero, showing how volatile his usage can be. The Cowboys allowed 218.1 passing yards per game last season, leaving room for Dotson to hit either of these low totals for the Philadelphia Eagles with a single catch. Bettors are playing both numbers, with confidence that opportunity plus matchup equals value on short receiving overs.

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