NFL Week 13 Predictions | Sunday Picks Today, Best Bets
Grant White
Host · Writer
We are officially in the second half of the 2024 NFL season. While the prospect of eventually running out of football is disheartening, bettors have a ton of action to look forward to. Division races are heating up, and most teams still have their eyes set on a postseason berth. That starts with a loaded Week 13 schedule.
We’ve got you covered for betting purposes, highlighting our favorite wagers for this week’s NFL action.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Chargers -1.5 (-105) | Falcons +1.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Chargers -118 | Falcons +100
Total: OVER 47.5 (-115) | UNDER 47.5 (-105)
The Atlanta Falcons are looking to pump the breaks on a two-game losing streak when they take on a rejuvenated Los Angeles Chargers squad in Week 13. Despite the Chargers’ renaissance, there are a few factors working against the playoff contenders on Sunday. With that, we see a decided advantage in backing the underdog home side in this inter-conference affair.
Los Angeles is coming off a humbling defeat against the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football. That leaves the Chargers less time to prepare for their cross-country trek and puts them in an uncomfortable time slot. Still, their perceived disadvantages run deeper than scheduling woes. The Chargers have seen a surge in scoring in recent weeks, an increase that isn’t supported by their underlying metrics. They’re up nearly 10 points per game over their recent sample going from 19.9 points per game through their first eight to 28.0 over their past three. LA’s production is relatively unchanged, supporting its inevitable regression over the coming games.
We’re forecasting an improved Falcons attack over their coming games. Atlanta has seen a sharp decrease in its scoring efficiency lately. Over their past two games, the Falcons have totaled just 23 points despite putting up nearly 700 yards of total offense. So far this season, the Falcons typically need 16.1 yards per point. Over the modest two-game sample, that has nearly doubled to 30.2.
Improved scoring efficiency is on the horizon for the Falcons. Having an extra week to get ready while hosting a Chargers team that will be completely out of their element are the extra layers insulating Atlanta. We expect the Falcons to get past the undeserving road favorites on Sunday.
Recommended Play: Falcons Moneyline +100
NFL DFS: Ranking the Must-Play Defense Matchups for Week 13
Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Cardinals +3.5 (-112) | Vikings -3.5 (-108)
Moneyline: Cardinals +148 | Vikings -176
Total: OVER 44.5 (-114) | UNDER 44.5 (-106)
Things can turn quickly in the NFL. Despite owning a 9-2 record and remaining comfortably in a playoff spot, the Minnesota Vikings can’t afford to take their collective eyes off the prize. Otherwise, they risk getting left behind in a crowded NFC playoff race. That couldn’t be more true in Week 13, as they host an Arizona Cardinals team, desperately trying to reclaim a wild card berth.
Arizona is coming off its worst offensive performance of the season. The Cardinals put up just six points and 298 yards against the Seattle Seahawks last week, and they’ll face an even stiffer challenge against an imposing Vikings defense. More concerningly, Kyler Murray has been ineffective at finding the endzone, throwing just one touchdown pass over the past three weeks. Playing consecutive road games puts him in a more pronounced deficit at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Minnesota’s unexpected ascent in 2024 is supported by elite metrics on both sides of the football. The Vikings have imposed their defensive will on opponents this season, ranking top 10 in scoring and total defense. Moreover, they’ve made it harder on their opponents in recent weeks. Minnesota is giving up just 278.3 yards per game over its previous three, a 30-yard drop from their already impressive season-long average of 317.3. Those defensive metrics are supported by top 10 rankings in scoring and total offense.
We’re expecting Arizona’s mid-season struggles to continue in this one. The Cardinals are in an unfavorable position playing in consecutive road games and likely won’t be able to match their offensive production against an elite Vikings defense. As a result, Minnesota is poised to cover -3.5 at home.
Recommended Play: Vikings -3.5 -108
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Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints
Spread: Rams -2.5 (-122) | Saints +2.5 (+100)
Moneyline: Rams -154 | Saints +130
Total: OVER 49.5 (-106) | UNDER 49.5 (-114)
The Los Angeles Rams defense isn’t the imposing unit they once were. Los Angeles has seen eroding defensive metrics this season, and that standing is unlikely to improve against the New Orleans Saints in Week 13.
The Saints have been on an upward trajectory since Derek Carr rejoined the lineup. Over their last three games, the Saints are up to 421.7 yards per game on offense, a 75-yard jump relative to season-long metrics. Still, that improved production has yet to translate to increased scoring. The Saints are hovering at 25.7 points per game over the three-game sample, on par with their 2024 average of 23.8. We’re anticipating a dramatic increase in scoring, starting with Sunday’s tilt versus the Rams.
While their offense has looked sharp, the Saints’ defense remains an inhibiting factor. New Orleans gives up the second-most yards in the NFL, miraculously holding opponents to 23.6 points per game. The Rams will expose those inefficiencies on Sunday. LA has deployed its passing attack unmercifully in recent weeks, averaging 250.0 yards per game over its previous three. The Saints’ secondary won’t be able to contain Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, ensuring this NFC clash turns into a track meet.
Both teams should have no problem scoring at will in Week 13. As a result, we’re betting this one sails over the total and eclipses 49.5 points.
Recommended Play: Over 49.5 (-106)
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