Predicting Every AFC Week 16 Game With Score Projections
Grant White
Host · Writer
Thanksgiving is behind us, meaning we’re in the stretch drive of the NFL season. There is still a lot to be determined, as division races and playoff spots are just starting to heat up.
Check out our weekly predictions for every Week 16 NFL contest!
Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns
- Stadium: Huntington Bank Field
- Location: Cleveland, OH
- Time: Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: BUF -10.5 | Total: 42.5
- Moneyline: BUF -700 | CLE +450
The Bills pulled off an epic comeback in last week’s win over the division-leading Patriots. Still, several concerns were validated in that performance. The Bills’ defense is not a championship-caliber unit. They give up a concerning amount of rushing yards and have been prone to big passing plays. Further, when Josh Allen isn’t on point, the offense can struggle. We expect the Bills’ quarterback to be under constant attack from the Browns’ ferocious defensive front. It might not cost them a win in Cleveland, but this is a classic letdown spot that the Bills could take too lightly.
Predicted Outcome: Bills 23 – Browns 20
Los Angeles Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys
- Stadium: AT&T Stadium
- Location: Arlington, TX
- Time: Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: DAL -2.5 | Total: 49.5
- Moneyline: DAL -130 | LAC +110
This line feels like a bit of a trap, but we’re falling for it anyway. The Cowboys are effectively eliminated from postseason contention. Barring the second coming of Jesus, Dallas will be relegated to the sidelines when the chase for the Lombardi Trophy begins in January. With that, they look like undeserving favorites against a Chargers team that just eliminated the dynasty Chiefs from the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Los Angeles operates the most underappreciated defense in the league, ranking second in total and ninth in scoring defense, but getting none of the credit. Any team that faces the Cowboys’ defense looks like a Super Bowl contender, and we expect that to be the case again when the Chargers invade AT&T Stadium.
Predicted Outcome: Chargers 32 – Cowboys 28
New York Jets vs New Orleans Saints
- Stadium: Caesars Superdome
- Location: New Orleans, LA
- Time: Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: NO -4.5 | Total: 40.5
- Moneyline: NO -215 | NYJ +180
Fresh off their unexpected triumphs over the Buccaneers and Panthers, the Saints are going for their first three-game winning streak since 2022. The Saints’ defense has looked good in each of their last two wins, holding their division rivals to a combined 582 yards and 37 points. Unfortunately, the Jets won’t have much success breaking through that impenetrable unit. New York continues to rank among the league’s worst offenses, putting up the third-fewest yards and the fifth-fewest points. The Saints are playing themselves out of a top spot in the NFL Draft.
Predicted Outcome: Saints 20 – Jets 7
Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans
- Stadium: Nissan Stadium
- Location: Nashville, TN
- Time: Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: KC -3 | Total: 37.5
- Moneyline: KC -170 | TEN +145
For the first time in over a decade, the Chiefs will be playing meaningless football. Officially eliminated from contention, Gardner Minshew earns the start under center as he tries to lead the Chiefs to victory against the Titans. KC’s offense hasn’t looked good this year, but it will have no problem putting up numbers against the Titans’ ineffective defense. Tennessee has allowed 66 points and 842 yards over its previous two contests. While their offense has made strides, this unit still ranks second-last in total yards and fourth-last in scoring. Kansas City won’t give up that easily.
Predicted Outcome: Chiefs 35 – Titans 31
Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins
- Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium
- Location: Miami Gardens, FL
- Time: Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: CIN -4.5 | Total: 47.5
- Moneyline: CIN -215 | MIA +180
The Dolphins were humbled on Monday Night Football last week. Now, they have to run it back against a less imposing AFC North foe. Injuries have been a limiting factor on offense, but this defensive unit struggles mightily every time it steps on the field. Cincinnati gives up more yards than any other team, ranking dead last in passing and rushing defense. Predictably, that correlates with the league’s worst defense and the second-worst third-down conversion rate. Even against the lifeless Dolphins, that’s going to be a problem. Miami flashes its potential intermittently, and we expect that to be the case in Week 16.
Predicted Outcome: Dolphins 31 – Bengals 28
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos
- Stadium: Empower Field at Mile High
- Location: Denver, CO
- Time: Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
- Spread: DEN -3 | Total: 46.5
- Moneyline: DEN -165 | JAX +140
Undoubtedly, the Jaguars and Broncos are two of the biggest surprises this season. While both were expected to compete, neither was expected to contend for the Super Bowl. Yet here we are, 15 weeks into the season, and both teams have made a dramatic surge up the futures board. Jacksonville deserves credit for its success, but the Jags are still a few steps behind their Week 16 counterparts. Denver has been incredibly efficient on both sides of the football, and the Broncos are insulated in their not-so-friendly confines. The betting market wants to give the Jaguars a chance in this one, but the Broncos cruise to victory.
Predicted Outcome: Broncos 27 – Jaguars 17
Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans
- Stadium: NRG Stadium
- Location: Houston, TX
- Time: Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
- Spread: HOU -14 | Total: 38.5
- Moneyline: HOU -1000 | LV +600
The division title is within reach for the Texans, and if everything goes to plan, they could have the inside track after this week. Houston has mounted a furious comeback, winning six in a row and nine of its past 11. They should get some help from the Broncos on Sunday, meaning all they have to do is take care of business versus the Raiders. Las Vegas is awful, but the Raiders tend to show up in big games. The AFC West basement dwellers have covered the spread against the Broncos (twice), Jags, and Bears, and should bring their best to NRG Stadium. It won’t be enough to pull off the outright upset, but the Raiders make things uncomfortable for the Texans.
Predicted Outcome: Texans 23 – Raiders 16
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Detroit Lions
- Stadium: Ford Field
- Location: Detroit, MI
- Time: Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
- Spread: DET -7 | Total: 52.5
- Moneyline: DET -320 | PIT +260
Few people expected the Steelers to be in this position. With three weeks left to play, Pittsburgh is hanging onto the AFC North division lead. Still, they face a sincere challenge versus the Lions in Week 16. Detroit is outside the playoff picture and desperately needs some help to get in. Even at their best, the Lions could fall victim to a resurgent Aaron Rodgers. The Steelers’ quarterback is having a late-season renaissance, throwing for more than 500 yards with a 75.4% completion percentage over the past couple of outings. Considering Rodgers’ track record against the Lions, we’re predicting a monumental upset in Motown.
Predicted Outcome: Steelers 35 – Lions 34
New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens
- Stadium: M&T Bank Stadium
- Location: Baltimore, MD
- Time: Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
- Spread: BAL -3.5 | Total: 48.5
- Moneyline: BAL -155 | NE +135
The Ravens are hanging tough with the Steelers, but we never know which version of the team we’ll get. Baltimore shut out the high-octane Bengals last time out, which comes on the heels of giving up 59 points over their previous two contests. In short, this is no longer a defense we can trust. New England had a monumental collapse last week, and Mike Vrabel isn’t the kind of coach to tolerate those kinds of performances. Expect the Pats to throw their entire arsenal at the Ravens, overwhelming Baltimore’s inconsistent defense. Patriots march away with the win in this pivotal test.
Predicted Outcome: Patriots 28 – Ravens 24
San Francisco 49ers vs Indianapolis Colts
- Stadium: Lucas Oil Stadium
- Location: Indianapolis, IN
- Time: Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
- Spread: SF -6 | Total: 46.5
- Moneyline: SF -290 | IND +240
Philip Rivers turned back the clock in his triumphant return to the gridiron, but this Monday Night Football battle versus the Niners will test the limits of his 44-year-old body. San Francisco has looked solid offensively, offsetting some of its more noticeable defensive concerns. Moreover, this Colts team mustered just 215 total yards in Week 15, a benchmark that won’t ratchet that much higher on primetime. The 49ers will lean into their run game, controlling the clock and keeping Indianapolis at bay. The betting line has this one right on the money.
Predicted Outcome: 49ers 27 – Colts 21
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
