Thursday Night Football: Texans vs Jets Any Time TD Best Bets

Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season starts with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the New York Jets and Houston Texans. Which players have the best chance to find the endzone in this AFC thriller?

The Favorite: Joe Mixon (-135)

Since returning to the lineup in Week 6, Joe Mixon has been an unstoppable force. The Texans running back has seen an increased workload and has made the most of those additional touches. Mixon has totaled 63 rushing attempts across the modest three-game sample, reaching 25 carries in each of his past two outings. More importantly, the former Pro Bowler has made the most of those opportunities, finding paydirt five times. Solid underlying metrics substantiate his increased scoring capacity, making him an ideal candidate to maintain that pace against the Jets. Despite playing in only five games this season, Mixon has the seventh-most red zone carries in the NFL. Further, he’s become more of a priority in the passing game, accumulating 12 targets across his past three outings. The odds-on favorite to record a touchdown, Mixon’s betting odds still don’t do him justice. He’s worth the investment to cross the plane again on Thursday Night Football.

Jets WR Will Take Flight vs. Texans

It’s painfully obvious that Aaron Rodgers is in the autumn of his career, but that hasn’t stopped the Jets from throwing the ball ad nauseam. New York has the fourth-highest passing play percentage this season and will inevitably turn to the air against the Texans. Without Allen Lazard in the lineup, it comes down to Garrett Wilson or Davante Adams as the premier touchdown options. Heading into Thursday’s tilt, there appears to be an edge in backing Wilson (+195) over Adams (+150). It’s a small sample size, but Rodgers has preferred Wilson in the passing game. Wilson is out-pacing Adams in targets 17 to 15 over the past few games. The receiving duo tied for the team lead in Week 6 with nine targets, with Wilson soaking up more looks last time out. Moreover, Wilson has been the more reliable pass-catching option, posting a catch rate of 60.7% compared to Adams’ 46.7% mark with the Jets. On that basis, we’re taking the 45 extra points and backing Wilson as the preferred touchdown option.

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Competing Tight Ends: Dalton Schultz (+400) vs. Tyler Conklin (+480)

Neither Dalton Schultz nor Tyler Conklin have been touchdown specialists, but there’s value in backing one of the tight ends to find the endzone on Thursday Night Football. Price-wise, Conklin is listed as +480 in the anytime touchdown market, with Schultz more favorably priced at +400. As with the Jets’ wide receivers, we’re taking the meatier price with Conklin. For starters, Schultz has not found paydirt this season and has been an afterthought in the red zone. The Texans’ tight end has just two targets inside the 20-yard line this season compared to Conklin’s five. Further, the Jets tight end has been the more reliable pass-catching option. So far this season, Conklin has posted a 68.4% catch rate, nearly eight points higher than Schultz’s mark of 60.5%. Finally, Conklin’s touchdowns have come over the last two weeks, highlighting Rodgers’s preference for the big target when it matters most. Undoubtedly, Conklin is the play.

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Value Play: Xavier Hutchinson (+470)

After suffering the dreaded non-contact injury in Week 8, Houston will be without Stefon Diggs for the remainder of the season. While Tank Dell is the obvious choice to see an increased role with the team, we expect Xavier Hutchinson to see a more robust increase in workload. The second-year pro has been targetted seven times over the past four games, hauling in four receptions for 61 yards. With all the attention on Dell, look for Hutchinson to emerge as the value play.

Longshot: Houston Texans Defense (+900)

Ineffective defense was the Texans’ shortcoming last season, but Houston’s brass addressed that in the offseason. A rebuilt linebackers’ corps and improved secondary have bolstered the Texans’ early-season results. Don’t be surprised if a Texans’ defender finds the endzone at MetLife Stadium. Rodgers has thrown six interceptions across his past four games, while Houston has forced nine turnovers over its last three. Don’t overlook the value of the Texans’ defense as an anytime touchdown scorer.

 All Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook