Top 5 NFL Week 11 Underdog Picks With Upset Potential
Gabriel Santiago
Host · Writer
With the NFL season underway, pinpointing the best bets every week can be challenging. Let’s have a look at which upcoming potential upsets to target.
1. Washington Commanders (+120) vs. Miami Dolphins
The Washington Commanders (3-7) will head overseas to face the Miami Dolphins (3-7) in Madrid. Notably, this will be the first NFL game played in Spain. Both teams enter this game as they wallow in their respective divisional standings. Washington has been slightly better on offense, having scored 22.3 PPG. Meanwhile, Miami has produced just 21.0 PPG. FanDuel Sportsbook has the Commanders priced as a +120 underdog (or 45.5% implied probability), but I think they have a fair shot at the upset. ESPN Analytics concurs, giving Washington a 51.9% chance at victory. Keep in mind: kickoff is at 9 a.m. ET here, so be sure to get your action in early.
2. Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+132)
Week 11 will feature the Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) traveling to Duval County to face the Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4). In a way, this is a Wild Card rematch from 2023, when the Jags ousted Los Angeles from the postseason. Presently, both sides can significantly benefit from a conference win this Sunday. Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence has not lost to the Bolts in his young career, throwing for seven touchdowns over two games. Admittedly, the Chargers are hot right now, but perhaps an underdog play on the Jags at home (where they are 3-1 SU in 2025) could be worthwhile.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+220) vs. Buffalo Bills
This Sunday features one of the most exciting slates, starting at 1 p.m. ET with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) visiting the Buffalo Bills (6-3). Both squads have aspirations of a deep playoff run in 2025-26, and rightfully so. When it pertains to scoring, the Bills (27.6 PPG) are ranked sixth in the NFL, while Tampa Bay (24.2 PPG) chimes in at 11th. The Bucs have the sort of athletes that can challenge Buffalo’s struggling run defense. Remember: the Bills have been gashed for 147.6 YPG on the ground. Tampa displays +220 odds to win this weekend; that should grab your attention against an inconsistent Buffalo team.
4. Seattle Seahawks (+138) vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Seattle Seahawks (7-2) vs. the Los Angeles Rams (7-2) has all the potential to be the game of the year. This Sunday’s showcase at SoFi Stadium will decide NFC West supremacy for the moment. Both teams have MVP hopefuls in Matthew Stafford (69.2 QBR) and Sam Darnold (77.6 QBR). Still, it could be the defenses that take over this divisional bid. The Rams have allowed only 17.0 PPG (second) while Seattle has given up just 19.1 PPG (fifth). Honestly, I have this contest as a toss-up. The 12s should have no issue taking over the stadium, and with the Seahawks’ moneyline price of +138 (42% implied probability), I am certainly interested. For what it’s worth, SportsGrid Analytics gives Seattle a 48% chance of winning.
5. Detroit Lions (+120) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday Night Football should be an exciting showing between the Detroit Lions (6-3) and Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) from The Linc. There’s a good chance we see this matchup again in January, but for now, the Eagles are listed as a slight home favorite. However, Detroit ranks more favorably than Philadelphia across almost every significant metric at this time. The Lions have scored 31.4 PPG, which lands second in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Birds are churning out 24.2 PPG: 12th overall. On defense, Detroit has surrendered 294.0 total YPG. Conversely, Philly’s D has been hit for 327.9 YPG. SportsGrid Analytics gives the Lions a 51% chance of winning in Week 11, and that is also the side I am on.
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