Weather is a Factor in Sunday’s Divisional Round DFS Picks

As we dive into today’s NFL action, weather will play a pivotal role, particularly in Philadelphia and parts of the East Coast. Rain, wind, and tough conditions are expected to impact scoring totals, making this a key factor in your daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineup decisions. Let’s break down each position and highlight key players and strategies to help you dominate your contests.

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Running Backs: Derrick Henry Leads the Way

Derrick Henry ($9,300) sits atop the running back board, and for good reason. He’s playing with determination and delivering dominant performances week after week. Facing a favorable matchup, he’s poised to maintain his throne in fantasy football.

Premium Option: Henry’s combination of power and volume makes him a must-play, especially in cash games.
Mid-Range Value: Kyren Williams ($7,700) offers intrigue, particularly given his usage in both the running and passing game.
Fade Alert: James Cook faces a tough Baltimore defense that has stifled opposing running backs all season. Consider other options in this price range.
Value Play: Justice Hill ($5,400) is a sneaky option for those needing salary relief. He brings touchdown upside and fits well as a flex or RB2 in GPP lineups.

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Wide Receivers: Weather Fades and Rando Opportunities

The weather in Philadelphia significantly impacts passing games. It’s a day to fade premium receivers like A.J. Brown and Cooper Kupp, with attention turning to value and upside plays.

High-Upside Targets: Look for affordable wideouts in high-total games. Names like Rashod Bateman and Khalil Shakir stand out as potential difference-makers.
Deep Shots: Secondary receivers such as Mack Hollins can provide tournament-winning upside in the right game scripts.
Strategic Tip: Focus on players with shorter routes and high target shares, especially in games impacted by weather.

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Quarterbacks: Lamar Jackson in the Spotlight

Quarterbacks are the engine of any DFS lineup, and today’s slate offers intriguing options:

Top Play: Lamar Jackson offers a high floor with his rushing ability and a ceiling that few quarterbacks can match. Priced slightly below Josh Allen, he’s the preferred option.
Weather Factor: Jalen Hurts remains a viable play despite the conditions. His rushing potential could shine in adverse weather, making him an excellent tournament pivot.
Contrarian Stack: Matthew Stafford and the Rams stack could be a bold play to exploit a potential upset in bad weather. With low ownership expected, this is a high-risk, high-reward strategy.

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Tight Ends: Balancing Value and Equity

With premium tight ends like Dallas Goedert ($6,100) and Mark Andrews ($5,900) on the slate, touchdown equity is king. However, finding value is critical if you’re investing heavily in running backs or quarterbacks.

Top Choice: Mark Andrews remains a high-ceiling option, especially in red-zone situations.
Salary Saver: Isaiah Likely ($5,100) provides excellent value and could double as a flex option in tournaments.
Flex Consideration: Pairing Andrews and Likely in a two-tight-end stack could differentiate your lineup in smaller slates.

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DFS Strategy Tips for Today

Weather Awareness: Prioritize players in good weather conditions or those who rely on rushing rather than passing.
Balanced Spending: Anchor your lineup with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, but find value in mid-tier and low-cost options.
Be Different: Consider contrarian plays like a Rams-heavy stack or secondary receivers in high-scoring games to separate from the field.

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Closing Thoughts

With just two games on the slate, pricing is tight, and decisions are crucial. The weather adds another layer of complexity, but by focusing on high-floor plays like Derrick Henry and high-upside pivots like Matthew Stafford stacks, you can maximize your chances of success. Build responsibly, embrace volatility in tournaments, and aim for a lineup that balances safety with contrarian opportunities.