Why These 5 Teams Are Risky Bets in the 2026 NFL Playoffs
Paul Connor
Host · Writer
Five NFL playoff teams raise red flags, from overachieving records to key injuries and matchup flaws, making them prime fade candidates as the postseason begins.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
The Steelers have again defied the odds under Mike Tomlin, winning a nail-biter against the Ravens in Week 18 to clinch the AFC North. However, the underlying numbers suggest they are playing way above their ceiling. With a 10-7 record and an offense that has struggled to find explosive plays consistently, Pittsburgh is the definition of a “grind-it-out" team. That style doesn’t bode well in today’s brand of football. To make matters more challenging, Aaron Rodgers and company draw Houston’s ferocious defense in the opening round. It could be another quick exit in the Steel City.
2. Carolina Panthers (8-9)
The Panthers are the quintessential “bad division winner" fade. Despite finishing with an 8-9 record, Carolina secured a home playoff game simply by surviving the dismal NFC South. Quarterback Bryce Young struggled down the stretch, throwing for under 200 yards in three of his last four starts. While Carolina did manage a surprising 31-28 upset over the high-octane Rams back in Week 13, it is hard to see lightning striking twice in the Wild Card Round.
3. San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
It feels strange to fade a team with Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey, but the 49ers enter the postseason as a shell of their former selves on the defensive side of the ball. Losing both Nick Bosa and Fred Warner to season-ending injuries has gutted the unit’s spine. While the offense can still put up 40 points on any given Sunday, San Fran’s inability to stop the run or generate a pass rush without Bosa makes them incredibly vulnerable on the road against a physical Philadelphia Eagles team.
4. Denver Broncos (14-3)
The Broncos secured the AFC’s No. 1 seed, but there is significant “fraud alert" energy surrounding their 14-3 record, with 11 of those victories coming by one score. Furthermore, late-season struggles against physical teams like the Jaguars exposed a lack of a “Plan B" when the run game is neutralized. With the pressure of a first-round bye, Denver is a high-seed risk to fall in the Divisional Round.
5. Green Bay Packers (9-7-1)
Green Bay limped into the No. 7 seed with a series of inconsistent performances down the stretch. While QB Jordan Love remains a dangerous playmaker, the loss of Micah Parsons to a torn ACL has completely deflated the defense. They are tasked with traveling to Soldier Field to face a Chicago Bears team that has already beaten them once this year. Without their defensive anchor, the Packers lack the personnel to stop the Bears’ multifaceted rushing attack.
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