We are turning our focus to a promising face-off between the Atlanta Braves and the Toronto Blue Jays. The match, taking place in Toronto, currently sees the Braves favored at -159 on the FanDuel Sportsbook, an interesting position considering the home team’s strength.

Spencer Strider takes the mound for the Braves, bringing a reputation as one of the best pitchers in the NL. He’s not just good, some may argue he’s the best. However, the strong number for Atlanta might raise eyebrows as the Blue Jays, usually well-respected by the books.

Toronto’s lineup is impressive, particularly against right-handed pitching. An estimated six-plus batters could potentially cause some damage, particularly in Toronto’s smaller ballpark. It’s been a while since Toronto hosted a home game, and they are eager to make an impact.

However, Strider’s stats are intimidating. With an xFIP of 2.71 and a strikeout rate (K-rate) of 43.4%, he dominates the mound. Furthermore, his walk rate is under 10%, making it even more challenging for batters to get on base. For right-handed pitchers, an ISO power number below .170 is considered good. Strider boasts an impressive .061 against lefties and .071 against righties.

Flipping over to the Atlanta’ offensive, their lineup usually brings runs to mind. However, this year against right-handed pitching, they’ve been struggling. Over the last 30 days, only four batters have positive ISO power numbers.

Their pitcher, Chris Bassitt, has a slightly high xFIP of 4.77 and a solid K-rate around 25%. His ISO power numbers are noteworthy: .120 against lefties and .055 against righties. However, he’ll be facing five right-handed batters, against whom he’s been very effective, boasting a .174 weighted on-base percentage and an ISO of .055 over the past 30 days.

Considering these factors, despite two lineups that seem capable of high scoring in a small ballpark, we might lean towards the under. Both pitchers are in excellent form and are likely to stifle their opponent’s bats.

The current total is set at 8.5, which might seem low, considering Toronto’s team total is only 3.5. This is a testament to the respect both Strider and Bassitt command on the mound. The game could be a low-scoring affair, offering some attractive under betting opportunities.