Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Reds @ Cubs – First Pitch: 2:20 p.m.
We’re talking Chicago Cubs versus Cincinnati Reds, a classic Midwestern face-off. It’s the day game at the historic Wrigley Field, and it looks like we’ve got a weather wildcard to consider: wind.
Last time we had a gusty game, the advice from the dugout was “hit singles and doubles. You don’t hit home runs at Wrigley." With wind in the mix, every fly ball might not make a big difference, but timely hits can definitely rack up the points.
Starting for the Cincinnati Reds is Hunter Greene, a promising young talent with a fastball that sizzles. But 2023 hasn’t been his year – he’s struggled with an ERA of 4.64. Even though his xFIP is decent, around four. Greene has shown a surprising weakness: he’s having trouble getting right-handed batters out. These hitters have a .428 weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and a .361 ISO power number against Greene in the last 30 days.
Flipping over to the home team, Justin Steele of the Chicago Cubs is another up-and-comer who’s been impressive on the mound. Despite a slightly elevated xFIP of 4.50, Steele’s been holding his own, particularly against left-handed batters. The lefty has managed a .261 wOBA and a fantastic .077 ISO power number when facing lefty batters.
But it doesn’t end there. Steele’s also shown an interesting trend: his stats against right-handed batters aren’t the usual challenge for a left-handed pitcher. He’s faced 97 right-handers over the past month, holding them to a .294 wOBA and a .103 ISO power number.
Comparing the young guns, Steele’s got the edge in today’s matchup. Plus, the Cubs’ lineup has shown a bit more consistency than the Reds’.
So, if you’re playing the odds, Chicago looks to be the safer bet, listed at -159. And with that total of seven, keep an eye on those winds swirling around Wrigley Field. You never know how a gusty day can turn the tide.
Spread, Total, Moneyline, and Odds:
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | +1.5 | -167 | O 7 | -112 | +130 | Open |
| -163 | 7 | -110 | +138 | Current | ||
| Cubs | -1.5 | +140 | U 7 | -108 | -149 | Open |
| +137 | 7 | -110 | -159 | Current | ||
Projected Lineups:
Reds
Starting Pitcher: Hunter Greene: 0-4, 4.68 ERA, 12.42 K/9
| 1. | 2B | Jonathan India | .289, 3 HR, 18 RBI |
| 2. | LF | TJ Friedl | .321, 3 HR, 18 RBI |
| 3. | 3B | Nick Senzel | .256, 4 HR, 21 RBI |
| 4. | 1B | Spencer Steer | .278, 6 HR, 22 RBI |
| 5. | DH | Tyler Stephenson | .241, 2 HR, 19 RBI |
| 6. | CF | Stuart Fairchild | .232, 1 HR, 14 RBI |
| 7. | RF | Wil Myers | .189, 3 HR, 12 RBI |
| 8. | SS | Jose Barrero | .222, 1 HR, 12 RBI |
| 9. | C | Luke Maile | .255, 3 HR, 5 RBI |
Cubs
Starting Pitcher: Justin Steele: 6-1, 2.20 ERA, 7.78 K/9
| 1. | 2B | Nico Hoerner | .295, 3 HR, 24 RBI |
| 2. | SS | Dansby Swanson | .265, 5 HR, 21 RBI |
| 3. | LF | Ian Happ | .289, 4 HR, 19 RBI |
| 4. | RF | Seiya Suzuki | .293, 6 HR, 19 RBI |
| 5. | 3B | Patrick Wisdom | .214, 12 HR, 23 RBI |
| 6. | CF | Christopher Morel | .333, 9 HR, 15 RBI |
| 7. | DH | Trey Mancini | .257, 3 HR, 16 RBI |
| 8. | 1B | Matt Mervis | .211, 2 HR, 7 RBI |
| 9. | C | Tucker Barnhart | .189, 0 HR, 3 RBI |
Betting Insights:
Reds
- The over hit in 3 of the Cincinnati Reds last 5 games on the road in 2023
Cubs
- The over hit in 4 of the Chicago Cubs last 5 games at home in 2023
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