We’re talking Chicago Cubs versus Cincinnati Reds, a classic Midwestern face-off. It’s the day game at the historic Wrigley Field, and it looks like we’ve got a weather wildcard to consider: wind.

Last time we had a gusty game, the advice from the dugout was “hit singles and doubles. You don’t hit home runs at Wrigley.” With wind in the mix, every fly ball might not make a big difference, but timely hits can definitely rack up the points.

Starting for the Cincinnati Reds is Hunter Greene, a promising young talent with a fastball that sizzles. But 2023 hasn’t been his year – he’s struggled with an ERA of 4.64. Even though his xFIP is decent, around four. Greene has shown a surprising weakness: he’s having trouble getting right-handed batters out. These hitters have a .428 weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and a .361 ISO power number against Greene in the last 30 days.

Flipping over to the home team, Justin Steele of the Chicago Cubs is another up-and-comer who’s been impressive on the mound. Despite a slightly elevated xFIP of 4.50, Steele’s been holding his own, particularly against left-handed batters. The lefty has managed a .261 wOBA and a fantastic .077 ISO power number when facing lefty batters.

But it doesn’t end there. Steele’s also shown an interesting trend: his stats against right-handed batters aren’t the usual challenge for a left-handed pitcher. He’s faced 97 right-handers over the past month, holding them to a .294 wOBA and a .103 ISO power number.

Comparing the young guns, Steele’s got the edge in today’s matchup. Plus, the Cubs’ lineup has shown a bit more consistency than the Reds’.

So, if you’re playing the odds, Chicago looks to be the safer bet, listed at -159. And with that total of seven, keep an eye on those winds swirling around Wrigley Field. You never know how a gusty day can turn the tide.