NCAAF · 2 years ago

Minnesota Golden Gophers Preview, Predictions & Season Win Total Pick

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

Minnesota Golden Gophers Preview, Predictions & Season Win Total Pick

I’m not going to pretend to be the biggest P.J. Fleck fan in the world, but he’s made a bowl game in four of his five full seasons and won nine-plus games three times. The last time the Golden Gophers were this consistently good, they competed for the national title and Big Ten crowns.

And that’s what has eluded them, as Minnesota is one of two Big Ten West programs to have never played in the Big Ten Championship Game. If not this year—the last of East-West divisions—then when?

Big Ten West Previews: Iowa | Wisconsin | National Previews: Georgia | Notre Dame | USC

Minnesota Golden Gophers Preview

2022 Record: 9-4 (5-4); Big Ten Finish: 2nd in B1G West (tied)

A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: No. 31

Head Coach: P.J. Fleck: 44-27 (26-26) | 7th Season | Overall: 74-49

Co-Offensive Coordinator: Matt Simon (4th Season, 7th w/ Minnesota), Greg Harbaugh (1st Season, 3rd w/ Minnesota)

Defensive Coordinator: Joe Rossi (5th Season, 7th w/ Minnesota)

Minnesota Golden Gophers Futures Odds (FanDuel)

National Championship Odds: +20000 | CFB Playoff Odds: +8000

B1G Championship Odds: +2000 | B1G West Odds: +430

Win 6+ Games: -320 | Undefeated Regular Season: +9000

Regular Season Wins: OVER 7.5 +138 | UNDER 7.5 -170

Have all the intel you need? Free actionable info is one click away! Sign up for our daily newsletter, SportsGrid Daily.

Minnesota Preview: Why You Should Be Bullish

The offense might be joining the 21st century! The Gophers finished 125th in pass attempts last season, ahead of only UMass (12 games), UConn, New Mexico (12 games), and three academies. That will change. I like the potential of quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis, nicknamed the “Greek Rifle.” At 6’4” and 215 pounds, with a powerful arm and the ability to run with the football, the former four-star recruit will be the most physically gifted QB of the Fleck era. They cut him loose against Wisconsin, and he threw for 319 yards (19 of 29) and two TDs (0 INTs). They return leading receiver Daniel Jackson (15.1 YPC, 5 TDs) and highly-touted tight end Brevyn Spann-Ford, and added Corey Crooms (All-MAC) and Elijah Spencer (943 yards, 9 TDs with Charlotte in 2022) in the portal. If Chris Autman-Bell can return to form, this will be their best group of pass catchers in quite some time.

Golden Gophers Preview: Why You Should Be Bearish

The defense carried them last season when they finished fourth in scoring (13.8 PPG), despite converting only 19 sacks (1.46 per game, 118th nationally). How did they manage that? With all due respect to DC Joe Rossi, it helps to play one offense ranked in the top 45 in passing. Making this more pressing are their losses at cornerback. I like returnee Justin Walley, but starter Terell Smith was drafted, nickelback Flip Dixon transferred, as did backup Beanie Bishop, while Ryan Stapp “retired” from football. That’s over 1,500 snaps gone. The best two QBs they faced last year were Purdue’s Aidan O’Connell and PSU’s Sean Clifford. This year they will go against Drake Maye, JJ McCarthy, whoever is Ohio State’s QB, and much-improved passing attacks at Wisconsin, Iowa… potentially at Nebraska, Illinois, and even Northwestern. The QB competency in the B1G West should be much better in 2023.

Breakout Player: EDGE Jah Joyner, Sophomore

As a sophomore, Jah Joyner led the Gophers in pressures with 32, and I expect that to translate to more sacks (1.5 in 2022) as his role grows. Gone is Thomas Rush and his 557 snaps, the most among the defensive line in 2022. Most of those reps are going to Joyner, a four-star prospect on 247Sports who has put on 40 pounds since his arrival. He played his best football at the end of last season, which is another reason he’s our breakout player. Just 13 of his 32 pressures came in the first eight games of 2022 before he busted through for 19 pressure and 13 hurries over the final five outings.

X-Factor: The Offensive Line

Much of Minnesota’s success under Fleck has been built on a solid base of an offensive line. Two years ago, they returned 182 career starts, and last year that number dropped to 64, but they were fortunate to have the same five starters for all 13 games. With three starters using up their eligibility (all three were sixth-year seniors), they return only 49 career starts. Left tackle Aireontae Ersery has the size and mobility to handle the blindside, while former Notre Dame transfer Quinn Carroll shifts inside to guard, where he’s better suited. That’s not a bad starting point, but who will man the other three spots along the O-line? The Gophers replaced four starters last season better than expected, but how often can they reinvent the trenches without a drop-off in production?

Minnesota Schedule Analysis

Minnesota’s schedule is much more challenging in 2023 than it was a year ago. In out-of-conference play, the Gophers lose a home game with Colorado and add a trip to Chapel Hill to take on No. 20 North Carolina (Sept. 16). While they don’t have to play Penn State this season, they replace the Nittany Lions and a sure win vs. Rutgers with Michigan (home) and Ohio State (road). Within the B1G West, playing Nebraska and Illinois at home with a trip to Northwestern could play in their favor as they jockey for position in the division. Their biggest contests are rivalry games at Iowa and vs. Wisconsin, which adds up to five matchups against teams ranked in the preseason Coaches Poll.

Minnesota Prediction: OVER/UNDER 7.5 Wins

Yes, they’ve won nine-plus games three times since 2020, but that includes bowl wins, which don’t factor into our win total OVER/UNDER. Last year’s four-loss team didn’t have to play Michigan and Ohio State or face a quality out-of-conference opponent. In a rebuilding year with the most challenging schedule of the Fleck era, I expect the Gophers to take a step back and probably win six or seven games in 2023, so I’m very confident in the UNDER at 7.5.