We head north to the Rogers Centre for a clash between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees. In this matchup, runs are expected, and a lot of them. On the mound for the Yankees is Domingo German, going up against the Blue Jays’ Kevin Gausman. Gausman is a heavy favorite for Toronto at a price of -184, with the game’s total listed at 8.5.

Both teams have been swinging the bats well recently, with wins coming in bunches over the last 7-10 days. However, something has to give tonight, with the total set at 8.5. Gausman has been in excellent form, while German’s performance can be unpredictable.

Despite this, the Blue Jays seem overpriced, given the Yankees’ lineup and their recent form. With Aaron Judge appearing healthy again, the Yankees could be worth a play, especially in the first five innings.

Looking at German’s recent performance, his xFIP stands at 5.31 over the last 30 days, indicating some struggle, particularly against right-handed bats. Facing him is a strong Toronto lineup with powerful right-handed bats.

On the other hand, Gausman’s performance over the last 30 days has been exceptional. With an xFIP of 2.46, a strikeout rate close to 36%, and impressive numbers against both lefty and righty batters (.288 wOBA and .290 wOBA, respectively), he seems to be a deserved favorite for this game.

However, given the Yankees’ familiarity with Gausman and the recent awakening of their big bats, this matchup could lean toward the Yankees despite the pitching advantage favoring the Blue Jays.