UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 Preview & Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A UFC Welterweight title bout headlines UFC 304 as the champion Leon “Rocky" Edwards defends his belt against Belal “Remember the Name" Muhammad.
- Date: Saturday, July 27, 2024 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Manchester, England – Co-op Live | TV: PPV
King & The Baddy
No. 15 ranked lightweight Bobby “King" Green takes on Paddy “The Baddy" Pimblett. Green is 3-1 over his previous four bouts, beating Jim Miller his last time out. Pimblett has won seven in a row, outpointing Tony Ferguson in his previous fight.
Both men are five-foot-ten, but Piblett has a two-inch reach advantage. Pimblett averages 0.35 more knockdowns per 15 minutes than Green, but King is a crafty striker. Green lands 1.32 more significant strikes per minute, with both men absorbing a similar volume of strikes. Pimblett could have an advantage on the ground but probably lacks the wrestling ability to take Green to the mat.
Green’s age, 37, is the major wild card in this match, but he’s likely still too clever on his feet for Pimblett to succeed. Take Green to win at -122.
True Heavyweight Champion?
The interim UFC Heavyweight champion Tom “Honey Badger" Aspinall faces Curtis “Razor" Blaydes. Aspinall is on a two-fight win streak; his last loss was due to an injury against Blaydes. Blaydes is 4-1 over his previous five, knocking Jailton Almeida out in his last fight.
Aspinall is one inch taller, but Blaydes has a two-inch reach advantage. Aspinall has a considerable power edge, knocking down 3.46 opponents per 15 minutes. Aspinall also lands 7.72 significant strikes per minute and is a more active submission threat. Blaydes is the better wrestler, landing 5.72 takedowns per 15 minutes, but Aspinall has a 100 percent takedown defense rate.
At -440, Aspinall is a huge favorite. He’s better almost everywhere, but those odds are not enticing. However, Aspinall is an earlier finisher, so taking him to win in the first round at -110 is the way to go.
UFC Welterweight Championship Main Event
Leon Edwards (c) vs. Belal Muhammad
- Odds to Win: Edwards -250 | Muhammad +190
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -320 | Submission +950 | Decision +350
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes -196 | No +152
Perhaps the most underrated champion, Leon Edwards, defends his title against maybe the most underrated fighter in the division, Belal Muhammad. Edwards is unbeaten in his last 13 fights, with 12 wins and one no-contest. That no-contest was against Muhammad, who is unbeaten in his last ten.
Edwards is an inch taller and has a two-inch reach advantage. Edwards has more one-strike power, but it’s not overwhelming. Muhammad lands 1.8 more significant strikes per minute, but Edwards absorbs 1.3 fewer. Muhammad lands more takedowns, while Edwards has better takedown defense and more submissions. However, the grappling could be a wash in this one.
This should be listed as an even matchup, with Edwards having a slight advantage. Still, at +190, Muhammad looks to be the better bet.
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 Betting Card
- Green to win (-122)
- Aspinall to win in the first round (-110)
- Muhammad to win (+190)
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