UFC 309: Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic Predictions | UFC Picks Today, Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A heavyweight title bout headlines UFC 309 as the champion Jon “Bones" Jones faces former champion and No. 8 ranked Stipe Miocic.
- Date: Saturday, November 16, 2024 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Las Vegas, United States – Madison Square Garden | TV: PPV
Still Undefeated?
Two unranked middleweights face off as the undefeated Bo Nickal enters the cage against Paul “Bearjew" Craig. Nickal has won his first six MMA fights, the last three of which were in the UFC. Craig has lost two in a row and four of his previous five.
Craig is two inches taller, but they have an identical 76-inch reach. Despite both being grapplers, Nickal has the power edge, knocking opponents down 1.07 times per 15 minutes. However, Craig lands on average 0.81 more significant strikes per minute but also absorbs 2.47 more. Nickal has a massive wrestling advantage. In addition to his collegiate and international wrestling experience, he averages 7.46 takedowns per 15 minutes. Craig is the more accomplished submission grappler, but Nickal averages 5.89 more submissions per 15 minutes over his young career.
At -1300, Nickal is a massive favorite, but those odds in MMA are atrocious. There is more value in taking a feature fight special on Nickal to win by KO/TKO or Craig by submission at -175.
Iron do Bronx
No. 2 ranked lightweight and former champion Charles “do Bronx" Oliveira faces No. 7 Michael “Iron" Chandler. Oliveira has lost two of his last three but had an 11-fight win streak with ten finishes before that (which included a TKO finish of Chandler). Chandler has lost three of his previous four, but his last four wins have all been by knockout.
Oliveira is two inches taller and has a 2.5-inch reach advantage. Chandler lands 1.5 more significant strikes per minute but also absorbs 1.38 more. Both average 2.17 takedowns per 15 minutes, but Oliveira averages 1.94 more submissions.
Oliveira is a buzzsaw, and I want to capitalize on his ability to finish opponents. Take do Bronx to win in Round 1, 2, or 3 at -155.
Heavyweight Championship Main Event
Jon Jones (c) vs. Stipe Miocic
- Odds to Win: Jones -650 | Miocic +440
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -115 | Submission +200 | Decision +300
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +310 | No -460
The greatest fighter of all time and current UFC Heavyweight Champion, Jon “Bones" Jones, welcomes former champion Stipe Miocic back to the cage after a three-year layoff. Jones is 27-1 (1) in his career, dating back to his debut in 2008. He’s a two-division UFC champion whose only blemishes are a DQ loss and a No Contest that was an overturned win. Miocic is 20-4, with his last four fights being two wins, a loss to Daniel Cormier, and a knockout loss to Francis Ngannou.
Miocic is one inch taller, but Jones has a 4.5-inch reach advantage. Stipe will have the power edge, but neither has significant power for the weight class. Miocic lands 0.53 more significant strikes per minute but absorbs 1.6. There is a significant statistical difference between their wrestling, but Jones has a 95 percent takedown defense rate. That being said, I’d give the wrestling edge to Jones.
Two interesting factors in this fight are that Jones will not have the size advantage he has been accustomed to over his career and that Miocic will enter with three years of ring rust. Jones is the likely winner, but I can’t help but like Miocic at +440 in the hope that he hasn’t fallen off that much.
UFC 309: Jones vs Miocic Betting Card
- Nickal by KO/TKO or Craig by Submission (-175)
- Oliveira Round 1, 2, or 3 (-155)
- Miocic to win (+440)
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