UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland | UFC Picks Today, Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A UFC Middleweight title fight headlines UFC 328 as the champion Khamzat Chimaev faces No. 3-ranked Sean Strickland.
- Arena: Prudential Center
- Location: Newark, New Jersey, United States
- Where to Watch: Paramount+
- Date: May 9, 2026
- Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
No. 2-ranked heavyweight Alexander Volkov takes on No. 4-ranked Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Volkov is 1-1 across his last two fights, both ending in split decisions, but he had a four-fight win streak before that (2 KO/TKO, 1 Submission, 1 Decision). Cortes-Acosta is riding a three-fight win streak, winning all three by TKO or knockout.
Volkov is three inches taller and has a two-inch reach advantage. Volkov is a prolific knockout artist, but Cortes-Acosta drops opponents 0.55 more times per 15 minutes. Cortes-Acosta also lands 0.76 more significant strikes per minute. However, Volkov absorbs 0.52 fewer significant strikes per minute. Volkov has a slightly elevated takedown rate, but their takedown defense rate is pretty even. Volkov is statistically a more significant submission threat, but I don’t expect it to factor in much.
I think Volkov’s range is going to be too much of an advantage for Cortes-Acosta to overcome, and he hasn’t shown signs of aging despite being 37.
💰 Best Bet: Volkov to win (-170)
UFC 328: Joshua Van (c) vs. Tatsuro Taira
Flyweight champion Joshua Van defends his title for the first time against No. 3-ranked Tatsuro Taira. Van is riding a six-fight win streak, beating Alexandre Pantoja last time out. Taira is on a two-fight win streak, beating Park Hyun-sung and Brandon Moreno.
Taira is two inches taller and has a five-inch reach advantage. Van drops opponents 0.13 more times per 15 minutes. He also lands an astounding 5.9 more significant strikes per minute. However, Taira absorbs 3.95 fewer significant strikes per minute. Taira will have a significant grappling edge, landing 3.12 takedowns and 1.56 submissions per 15 minutes, compared to Van’s 0.84 takedowns and 0.0 submissions per 15 minutes.
After winning the title due to injury, Van comes into this fight with something to prove. Meanwhile, Taira could see him as a vulnerable, illegitimate champion. Van looks markedly better every time he enters the cage. If Van keeps the fight on the feet, I think he pulls off the decision.
💰 Best Bet: Van to win (+140)
UFC 328 Main Event: Khamzat Chimaev (c) vs. Sean Strickland
- Odds to Win: Chimaev -590 | Strickland +410
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +270 | Submission -105 | Decision +210
- Will the fight go the Distance? Yes +215 | No -290
Middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev defends his title for the first time, facing former champion Sean Strickland. Chimaev is undefeated at 15-0, wth six knockouts, six submissions, and three decisions. Strickland is 2-2 over his last four, beating Anthony Hernandez by TKO his last time out.
Chimaev is one inch taller, but Strickland has a one-inch reach advantage. Chimaev will have the power edge, dropping opponents 0.13 more times per 15 minutes. Strickland is a volume striker, landing 6.04 significant strikes per minute to Chimaev’s 4.04. However, Strickland absorbs 2.25 more significant strikes per minute. Chimaev has a huge grappling advantage, finishing 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes to Strickland’s 0.71. Add on his 1.83 submissions per 15 minutes, and Strickland is in for a long night.
I’m confident Chimaev comes out on top in this bout, but at -590 it’s tough to take him straight up. I think the better bet is taking the Chechen to win by either KO/TKO or Submission.
💰 Best Bet: Chimaev by KO/TKO or Submission (-195)
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