AL MVP Betting: Too Early to Invest in Yankees’ Aaron Judge
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
A Bronx Bombers View on Futures Markets, Injury Risks & Betting Strategy
The 2025 MLB season is barely a week old, and already sportsbooks have declared Aaron Judge the overwhelming favorite for American League MVP. At -115 on DraftKings and -175 on FanDuel, Judge has opened as the biggest first-week MVP favorite in recent betting history.
But while New York Yankees fans are rightfully excited about their captain’s powerful start, smart bettors should take a more cautious approach. Here’s why locking in a futures bet on Judge right now may be a mistake, and what Yankees fans should consider instead.
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Aaron Judge’s Early MVP Odds Are Historic—But Problematic
Through the first 8–9 games of the season, Judge has been electric—but no one has pulled away with 35 home runs while the next guy has five. The MVP race is wide open, and the value in Judge’s current odds is gone.
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DraftKings AL MVP odds: Judge -115
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FanDuel AL MVP odds: Judge -175
Locking in a -175 bet in early April ties up your bankroll until December, when the awards are actually announced. That’s nearly 8 months of market risk, including injury possibilities, slumps, and breakout performances from players like Gunnar Henderson, Bobby Witt Jr., or even Julio Rodríguez.
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The Yankees Star is a Favorite—But That’s Already Baked In
Betting on Aaron Judge at -175 today means you are paying for full-season production upfront, before he’s even hit double-digit homers. Even if he is the best player in the league, the MVP market isn’t only about performance—it’s about timing, value, and health.
Judge could miss just 3–4 weeks with an injury, and the MVP case gets complicated fast:
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Lower cumulative stats
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Missed counting stats (HR, RBI, WAR)
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Comparisons with other breakout stars who played full seasons
You don’t win a futures bet because a player could win MVP. You win it because the odds offered value relative to the field and risk.
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Smarter Bets for Yankees Backers
Yankees fans don’t need to abandon Judge completely. Instead of tying up your bankroll until the Winter Meetings in December, consider game-to-game prop bets or seasonal milestone markets:
Alternative Judge Betting Angles
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Over/Under Home Runs (Season Total)
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AL Home Run Leader Market
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Daily Player Props: Total bases, home runs, RBIs
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Yankees Futures: AL East Winner, Yankees World Series odds
These markets provide more flexibility and more timely cash-out options. Plus, Judge’s MVP price could drift in your favor during any midseason lull or hot streak from a rival.
Final Word: Don’t Lock Up -175 Until December
Even as the face of the Yankees franchise, betting on Aaron Judge at -175 for MVP in April is a bad bet from a value perspective. Too much can change, and too many contenders are in the mix.
As good as Judge is, smart Yankees fans and bettors should look for game-to-game value, milestone props, and alternate futures markets where the odds justify the risk.
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