AL Teams Start Critical Week Amid Heated Playoff Races
Grant White
Host · Writer
And just like that, the Dog Days of Summer have evaporated. MLB captivated our attention through the summer months, and while it’s sharing the stage with the NFL and college football seasons, baseball is heading into its most exciting week of the year.
Several compelling matchups punctuate the schedule and will profoundly impact which teams play baseball in October.
MLB Playoff Picture: 2024 Bracket if the Postseason Started Today
AL Central
In control of the division for most of the season, the Cleveland Guardians have been playing .500 baseball for the past couple of weeks. That’s allowed the Kansas City Royals to eat into their division lead, sitting 4.0 games back with two weeks to play.
Without another matchup between these teams before the end of the season, the Guardians’ divisional aspirations depend heavily on their performance in a four-game set against the Minnesota Twins starting on Monday. Likewise, Kansas City hosts the Detroit Tigers for three games, which will have a profound impact on the AL Central race and the AL Wild Card standings.
The Guardians remain prohibitive -1150 chalk to claim their second division pennant in three years.
MLB Playoff Picture: 2024 American League Pennant Odds
AL West
The Seattle Mariners’ late-season collapse catapulted the Houston Astros to the top of the AL West standings. With 12 games to play, some shops aren’t even hanging divisional odds. Houston is priced as substantive -3300 favorites to maintain its 4.5-game lead.
Still, the Mariners remain within striking distance in the AL Wild Card race. Sitting 2.5 games back of the Twins, Seattle would benefit from a Guardians sweep while making the most of its matchups versus the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers this week.
Depending on how the cards fall over the next couple of series, the stakes could be raised when the Astros and Mariners meet next week.
AL East
The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles had been trading spots atop the AL East standings for most of the season, but the Bronx Bombers have pulled away late. New York has a comfortable 3.0-game lead but embarks on a six-game West Coast road trip. If they slip up versus the M’s and Oakland Athletics, the Yankees risk potentially losing their division lead when these teams meet next week.
The O’s open the week with an inter-league showdown against the San Francisco Giants, but their weekend set against the Tigers will inevitably shape the wild card race. Detroit is on the outside looking in, but a series sweep would put them in a manageable position over the season’s final week.
Bookmakers aren’t giving the Orioles much of a chance to mount a late-season comeback, installing the Yankees as -700 chalk to maintain their lead in the AL East.
Wild Card Race
As it stands, the Orioles, Royals, and Twins occupy the wild card spots; however, the dynamics will shift quickly over the coming week. Each team faces pivotal showdowns against other contenders, and any slip-ups will have a cascading effect on the teams outside looking in.
The Tigers and Mariners would benefit most, provided they take care of business on their end, but the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays haven’t written off their playoff chances yet. The AL East also-rans play each other six more times before the end of the season.
As it stands, the Red Sox are 4.5 games back, with Tampa Bay a distant 6.5. If those squads split their matchups, neither can make the postseason. But if either one grabs the bull by its horns, they could see their playoff odds dramatically shift.
At +1800, bookmakers are fading Boston’s chances of making the playoffs, while most shops have already given up on the Rays.
MLB Playoff Picture: 2024 National League Pennant Odds
Final Thoughts
There’s still plenty to be decided before the end of the season, and this week’s matchups could cause a massive power shift in the postseason odds. Futures ticket holders in divisional races or odds to make the playoffs have many hedging opportunities over the season’s final two weeks.
But with two weeks left and a handful of pivotal matchups, plenty remains to be decided before the postseason.
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