Analyzing the Impact of the Josh Naylor Trade on the Guardians
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Matt Waldron
Could Matt Waldron emerge as the redeeming element for San Diego from this trade? His performance in 2024 suggests it's possible.
The 27-year-old pitcher has recorded a 3.61 ERA and 3.66 FIP, with a 22.3% strikeout rate, 0.90 HR/9, and a .230 batting average against over 99.2 innings this season. Since mid-May, he has been one of MLB's top performers on the mound.
Matt Waldron IP ERA FIP K-BB% Opponents AVG HR/9 fWAR # 60.1 2.39 3.10 17.8% .208 0.60 1.5 MLB Rank Since May 12 26th 3rd 10th 15th 8th 4th 11th Matt Waldron MLB ranks since May 12 (Min. 60 IP)
Waldron represents a new generation of knuckleball pitchers. He uses the knuckleball 38.8% of the time, complementing it with a four-seam fastball, sweeper, and sinker, each accounting for over 10% of his pitches. Unlike traditional full-time knuckleballers like R.A. Dickey and Tim Wakefield, Waldron incorporates a more diverse pitching repertoire. Yet, the more frequently he throws his knuckleball, the more effective he has become.
With Waldron under team control for the next 5.5 seasons, if he continues to perform at his current level, there’s a tangible, albeit slim, possibility that he could redeem this trade for the Padres as their player to be named later.
Long-Term Impact of the Padres-Guardians Josh Naylor Trade
In baseball, assessing the true impact of a trade often requires patience. Prospects need time to mature into major leaguers, and the final elements of a deal, like the "player to be named later," can take a while to be revealed. Immediate judgments on winners and losers are rarely accurate.
This has certainly been true for the 2020 trade in which the San Diego Padres sent Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill, Owen Miller, Austin Hedges, Joey Cantillo, and Gabriel Arias to the Cleveland Guardians in exchange for Mike Clevinger, Greg Allen, and later, Matt Waldron.
Since the trade, Naylor, who recently made his first All-Star appearance, has emerged as a standout performer, amassing a 6.3 fWAR and a 116 wRC+ with the Guardians. Meanwhile, Hedges, Cantillo, and Arias remain with Cleveland, continuing to contribute to the organization.
The Padres had Clevinger for only a year and a half due to his Tommy John surgery in 2021. During his short stint, Clevinger was effective in his initial five starts of the 2020 season. Still, overall, the return may not have justified the significant talent San Diego parted with, especially given his total of 133 1/3 innings pitched with a 4.12 ERA.
San Diego also acquired Waldron, who is currently navigating his first full major league season with his unique knuckleball.
As we approach four years since the trade, it's an opportune time to examine how each component of the transaction has fared for their respective teams.
Josh Naylor
Naylor's All-Star season is marked by a significant uptick in power. The Canadian first baseman has already hit a personal record of 22 home runs this year, along with career highs in isolated power (.256), slugging percentage (.503), barrel rate (11.1%), and hard-hit rate (45.2%).
Though his batting average and on-base percentage have declined in 2024, Naylor's overall approach at the plate has improved. The 27-year-old is swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone and has reduced his overall swing rate by nearly 4% compared to last year.
Drafted in the first round by the Miami Marlins in 2015, Naylor made his major league debut in 2019. This puts him closer to free agency than most players with only three full seasons in the majors, as he is set to hit the market after the 2025 season. Fortunately for the Guardians, Naylor's peak performance coincides with their competitive window in the AL Central, likely keeping them in contention this season and the next.
Among all players involved in the 2020 trade that brought him to Cleveland, Naylor has accumulated the highest fWAR since the deal.
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Cal Quantrill
Had Cal Quantrill not been sidelined by injuries for part of 2023, he might have rivaled Naylor as the standout player from the trade.
Quantrill, another Canadian included in the deal from San Diego, showed impressive form during his initial three years with the Guardians. From 2020 to 2022, he appeared in 80 games, making 56 starts, and delivered a strong 3.11 ERA across 350.2 innings. His record during this period was an impressive 23-8, complemented by a WHIP of 1.19.
Despite his low strikeout numbers, which some advanced metrics frown upon, Quantrill excelled at run prevention after joining Cleveland.
After a challenging year in 2023 that saw him limited to 99.2 innings with a 5.24 ERA due to injuries and inconsistencies, Quantrill was non-tendered and subsequently traded to the Colorado Rockies. Now pitching at Coors Field, he is beginning to show flashes of the form that marked his early years with the Guardians.
Quantrill with Guardians Clevinger with Padres IP 450.1 133.1 GS 75 26 Wins 27 9 ERA 3.58 4.12 FIP 4.24 4.60 K% 16.9% 19.9% BB% 6.9% 6.9% WHIP 1.23 1.16 HR/9 1.00 1.42 fWAR 4.8 1.1 Following a rough appearance on Tuesday, Cal Quantrill's ERA stands at 4.13 across 102.1 innings. However, he demonstrated strong form in the 12 starts between April 21 and June 22, recording a 2.87 ERA over 69.0 innings and reaffirming his status as a solid MLB rotation pitcher. While Quantrill's performance in Colorado might not alter the overall assessment of the trade, his effective tenure in Cleveland could have been a valuable asset for San Diego, especially considering Mike Clevinger's brief and tumultuous time with the Padres.
Austin Hedges
After departing the Guardians in 2023 for a stint with the Pittsburgh Pirates and then capturing a World Series title with the Texas Rangers, Austin Hedges returned to Cleveland for the 2024 season.
While not the focal point of the trade, Hedges has remained valuable to the team primarily due to his defensive prowess. Despite a modest batting line of .167/.224/.227 over 230 games with Cleveland since 2020, his defensive contributions have been significant. He has accumulated 32.4 defensive WAR during this period, the second-highest on the team, only behind Andres Gimenez.
Gabriel Arias
At the time of the trade, Josh Naylor and Cal Quantrill had already made their MLB debuts, making Gabriel Arias the most highly touted prospect received by Cleveland in the exchange.
Arias made his debut with the Guardians at the age of 22 in 2022 and has since appeared in 190 games. He has showcased his versatility by playing every position except pitcher and catcher.
Similar to Austin Hedges, Arias's defensive skills have secured his spot on the major-league roster. However, his performance at the plate suggests that he may not rise above the role of a utility bench player. Throughout his MLB career, the right-handed Arias has posted a batting line of .212/.274/.350, resulting in a 75 wRC+.
Despite appearing in 122 games in 2023, Arias contributed just 0.6 fWAR and has not emerged as a significant loss in the context of the trade.
Owen Miller
Similar to Cal Quantrill, Owen Miller has also moved on to a new organization. Now, with the Milwaukee Brewers' Triple-A team, the former 2018 third-round pick by San Diego never significantly impacted Cleveland.
Miller made his MLB debut in 2021 and spent two seasons with the Guardians before being traded to Milwaukee in December 2022. During his tenure in Cleveland, he appeared in 190 games and, like Gabriel Arias, demonstrated versatility by playing multiple positions. However, he had a minimal offensive impact, accumulating just 0.1 fWAR.
Joey Cantillo
Joey Cantillo is the only player from the trade who has not yet debuted in the MLB, but he holds potential as a dark horse impact arm for the Guardians.
Cantillo's progression has been hindered by injuries throughout his professional career. Only reaching Triple-A at the age of 23 in 2023, the 6-foot-4 left-hander has consistently demonstrated high strikeout rates at every level he has competed in.
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Cantillo, equipped with a 70-grade changeup and a 50-grade slider, has recorded a 3.32 ERA across 19.0 innings in Triple-A in 2024, though this has been accompanied by a high walk rate of 20.0%.
His future might lean towards a role in the bullpen, considering his history of injuries and issues with command. However, given Cleveland's track record of developing successful major-league pitchers, Cantillo stands a good chance of contributing to a proficient pitching staff soon.
Mike Clevinger
Reflecting on the Padres' side of the trade, the outcome appears less than stellar. Although Mike Clevinger made three postseason starts for San Diego, none were particularly successful.
Clevinger, initially a fourth-round draft pick by the Los Angeles Angels in 2011, first made his major league appearance with Cleveland in 2016, quickly establishing himself as a top-tier starter. During his tenure with the Guardians, he posted a 3.20 ERA and a 3.58 FIP over 523.1 innings, achieving an 11.0 fWAR, a 27.3% strikeout rate, and a .219 batting average against.
The Padres acquired Clevinger, aiming to solidify a rotation that included Zach Davies, Dinelson Lamet, and Chris Paddack at the time. However, Clevinger's Tommy John surgery marked a downturn in his performance, coinciding with the day he signed his extension with the Padres. In response, the organization shifted gears in 2021, bringing in Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, and Blake Snell to enhance the pitching staff around stars Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado.
Although the players San Diego traded weren't consistently among the top five prospects in their system or established major leaguers, the exchange ultimately felt costly. The Padres parted with six players for Clevinger, who contributed only 133.1 innings with a 4.12 ERA. In hindsight, A.J. Preller and his team might reconsider this trade if they had the chance.
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Greg Allen
Greg Allen was essentially a minor addition to the trade from the Guardians' side. The former sixth-round pick ended up playing only one game for the Padres.
Now 31 years old, Allen has not played in a major league game in 2024. However, he is performing well in Triple-A, posting a .261/.384/.435 batting line with the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders in the New York Yankees organization.
Matt Waldron
Could Matt Waldron emerge as the redeeming element for San Diego from this trade? His performance in 2024 suggests it's possible.
The 27-year-old pitcher has recorded a 3.61 ERA and 3.66 FIP, with a 22.3% strikeout rate, 0.90 HR/9, and a .230 batting average against over 99.2 innings this season. Since mid-May, he has been one of MLB's top performers on the mound.
Matt Waldron IP ERA FIP K-BB% Opponents AVG HR/9 fWAR # 60.1 2.39 3.10 17.8% .208 0.60 1.5 MLB Rank Since May 12 26th 3rd 10th 15th 8th 4th 11th Matt Waldron MLB ranks since May 12 (Min. 60 IP)
Waldron represents a new generation of knuckleball pitchers. He uses the knuckleball 38.8% of the time, complementing it with a four-seam fastball, sweeper, and sinker, each accounting for over 10% of his pitches. Unlike traditional full-time knuckleballers like R.A. Dickey and Tim Wakefield, Waldron incorporates a more diverse pitching repertoire. Yet, the more frequently he throws his knuckleball, the more effective he has become.
With Waldron under team control for the next 5.5 seasons, if he continues to perform at his current level, there’s a tangible, albeit slim, possibility that he could redeem this trade for the Padres as their player to be named later.
Long-Term Impact of the Padres-Guardians Josh Naylor Trade
In baseball, assessing the true impact of a trade often requires patience. Prospects need time to mature into major leaguers, and the final elements of a deal, like the "player to be named later," can take a while to be revealed. Immediate judgments on winners and losers are rarely accurate.
This has certainly been true for the 2020 trade in which the San Diego Padres sent Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill, Owen Miller, Austin Hedges, Joey Cantillo, and Gabriel Arias to the Cleveland Guardians in exchange for Mike Clevinger, Greg Allen, and later, Matt Waldron.
Since the trade, Naylor, who recently made his first All-Star appearance, has emerged as a standout performer, amassing a 6.3 fWAR and a 116 wRC+ with the Guardians. Meanwhile, Hedges, Cantillo, and Arias remain with Cleveland, continuing to contribute to the organization.
The Padres had Clevinger for only a year and a half due to his Tommy John surgery in 2021. During his short stint, Clevinger was effective in his initial five starts of the 2020 season. Still, overall, the return may not have justified the significant talent San Diego parted with, especially given his total of 133 1/3 innings pitched with a 4.12 ERA.
San Diego also acquired Waldron, who is currently navigating his first full major league season with his unique knuckleball.
As we approach four years since the trade, it's an opportune time to examine how each component of the transaction has fared for their respective teams.
