Long-Term Impact of the Padres-Guardians Josh Naylor Trade
In baseball, assessing the true impact of a trade often requires patience. Prospects need time to mature into major leaguers, and the final elements of a deal, like the "player to be named later," can take a while to be revealed. Immediate judgments on winners and losers are rarely accurate.
This has certainly been true for the 2020 trade in which the San Diego Padres sent Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill, Owen Miller, Austin Hedges, Joey Cantillo, and Gabriel Arias to the Cleveland Guardians in exchange for Mike Clevinger, Greg Allen, and later, Matt Waldron.
Since the trade, Naylor, who recently made his first All-Star appearance, has emerged as a standout performer, amassing a 6.3 fWAR and a 116 wRC+ with the Guardians. Meanwhile, Hedges, Cantillo, and Arias remain with Cleveland, continuing to contribute to the organization.
The Padres had Clevinger for only a year and a half due to his Tommy John surgery in 2021. During his short stint, Clevinger was effective in his initial five starts of the 2020 season. Still, overall, the return may not have justified the significant talent San Diego parted with, especially given his total of 133 1/3 innings pitched with a 4.12 ERA.
San Diego also acquired Waldron, who is currently navigating his first full major league season with his unique knuckleball.
As we approach four years since the trade, it's an opportune time to examine how each component of the transaction has fared for their respective teams.
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