Astros vs Dodgers Odds, Line Movement, and Pitching Changes

The most important angle in today’s game is uncertainty around the starting pitching. What began as a matchup between Emmet Sheehan and Colton Gordon has now shifted to Ryan Gusto vs. Sheehan, though updates could still occur before first pitch.

Current Line:

• Dodgers ML: -188 to -200

• Astros ML: +158 to +170

• Total: 9 runs (opened and held)

Considering the volatility, in-game betting may offer better value, especially if you’re wary of backing a triple-A level starter at -200.

Dodgers Starting Pitching: Can You Trust Ryan Gusto?

Ryan Gusto is expected to make his MLB debut or pitch in just his second major league game. The Dodgers’ original plan appeared to include Emmet Sheehan, who’s only logged 4 innings in 2024, after an inconsistent stint in 2023:

• 2023 stats (60.1 IP):

  • 25.8% strikeout rate

  • 10.5% walk rate

  • 1.64 HR/9 allowed

While those strikeout numbers are solid, the command issues and home run vulnerability raise red flags—especially when asked to justify a -200 price tag.

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Colton Gordon and Astros: Quietly Surging

Colton Gordon, the Astros’ left-handed rookie, brings developmental upside to the table but remains largely unproven. The Astros offense, however, has been rolling, making Houston a live underdog in this spot.

The Astros have been one of the hottest teams over the past two weeks, led by Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Kyle Tucker. If Gordon can keep the Dodgers’ bats at bay early, there’s clear value at +158 or better.

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Dodgers Bats Need to Wake Up

The Dodgers are overdue for an offensive breakout. Despite their talent—Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith—they’ve looked sluggish at the plate this series.

That said, facing a rookie lefty could be the spark they need. The Dodgers rank well against left-handed pitching and could benefit from the matchup, though the price on the moneyline is inflated given the pitching uncertainty.

NL Cy Young Odds: Skenes vs. Wheeler in a 2-Man Race

Best Bets for Dodgers vs Astros (4:10 PM ET)

Based on the volatile pitching situation and recent form, here are the most actionable betting angles:

• Live Bet the Dodgers: Avoid laying -200. If they fall behind early, you may catch a much better price.

• Astros +158 ML (pre-game): Hot team, underdog price, facing an untested pitcher.

• Over 9 Total Runs: With unproven arms on the mound, both offenses have a path to production.

• Astros Team Total Over 4.5: Dodgers’ pitching questions could lead to bullpen exposure.

NL Cy Young Odds: Skenes vs. Wheeler in a 2-Man Race

This game is a tough one to bet pre-flop given all the moving pieces. The Dodgers may very well avoid a sweep, but there’s little value laying -180 or more behind a triple-A pitcher. Meanwhile, the Astros are hot, getting plus money, and have the edge if their offense shows up early.

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