Yesterday was weird. The Guardians game got postponed. The Orioles scratched Grayson Rodriguez five minutes before the game for Albert Suarez, and he dominated. I couldn’t believe how bad the Orioles looked against Bassitt. Thankfully, the Rockies came through, and I finally defeated the final boss, Grimace. We took no losses nor wins yesterday; it was just some free entertainment.

2024 Record: 95-99 (-7.18 U)

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Freddy Peralta (3.89 ERA) vs. Chris Sale (2.71 ERA)

The Braves have been shut out in two straight games in embarrassing fashion. They got blanked by Edward Cabrera and the Miami Marlins while losing 7-0. After an off-day yesterday, they lost even worse to Colin Rea and the Brewers 10-0. If you have any faith left in the Braves, you back them to score today.

I love Chris Sale. He can win the CY Young. However, he just faced Milwaukee in his last start. He has great numbers against them, but the recent familiarity gives me pause. He pitches relatively well, but I’d rather keep him out of the equation. The Braves ML is much more expensive than backing the Braves bats, which nobody wants to do right now.

While the Braves offense has scored zero runs in the last two games, this isn’t a long, cold stretch. The previous time Peralta faced the Braves on July 31st, the Braves scored six in that game. They averaged 4.66 runs per game in that series. They averaged four runs per game in the first three games of the series against Miami and were shut out twice.

They aren’t a prolific offense right now, but they have a 101 wRC+ against righties, slightly above league average. They also benefit from facing a pitcher they just saw in Freddy Peralta. Peralta did pitch well against them, tossing six innings of two-run ball.

Peralta is pretty straightforward. He features a fastball, slider, and changeup while sprinkling in the occasional curveball. The Braves rank 13th in xwOBA against that mix, and I have more faith in the Braves adjusting to Peralta after a nice outing. The books also think so, as his 16.5 outs prop is a bit strange, coupled with a 2.5 earned run line creeping toward the over.

It’s a good bet that Peralta allows three earned runs or more in his start today. He has allowed three or more earned runs in three of his last five starts, and when the Braves faced him the previous season, they scored six runs.

That was a different lineup, but Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, and Michael Harris combined to go 1-12 in that game, with the lone hit being a single that didn’t matter. Most of the current Braves lineup did the damage in that one. In Peralta’s last five starts overall, the opponent has scored five runs or more in four of them.

The Brewers bullpen is outstanding, and it’s rested. Scary, I know, but at the end of the day, anyone on the Braves can take anybody out of the park at any time. With how I think Peralta gets hit today, they’ll likely have to shut out the Braves or keep them to one run in the later innings. If they can do that, I’ll tip my cap, but it’s a plus-money team total for a reason.

This is the bottom of the market for the Braves. A team that has disappointed many of us all season rights those wrongs today and puts up a crooked number. It’s a plus number for a reason, but we should get there.

The Pick: Braves Team Total Over 4.5 (+110) Risk 1 Unit

By Peter Appel

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