Can the New York Mets Rebuild? Examining Their Future Amidst Chaos and Uncertainty

The Issue With Steve Cohen

Hearing some Mets fans suggest that signing Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes will solve all the team's problems is reminiscent of that Seinfeld moment when George Costanza pitched a plan to get Barry Bonds and Ken Griffey Jr. on the Yankees without giving up anything significant.

These kinds of fan fantasies rarely materialize, even with a billionaire owner who once seemed willing to spend whatever it took to field a winner. It’s unrealistic to assume Steve Cohen will commit the billion (or billion and a half) dollars needed to make the Mets contenders again, at least not in the upcoming offseason.

Why have we always assumed the Mets would unleash their financial power in 2025 after sitting out 2024? Has Stearns or Cohen explicitly stated that, or is it just an expectation that became fact? The only consistent message has been about patience, hints at playing at the top of the market sometimes, and the need to create a development pipeline. They also mentioned no reset years, but the Mets' plans often seem to invite divine laughter followed by a few smacks upside the head.

The Mets are struggling this year despite a payroll north of $300 million. Yes, a lot of money will come off the books next year, but the Mets paid about $100 million in luxury taxes for the underwhelming 2023 team on top of $320 million in payroll. The bill will be similar for this year’s underperforming squad. Cutting payroll drastically allows them to reset the luxury tax rate and pay less for future splurges in 2026 and beyond. It’s good business, even if it means bad baseball and worse optics for those who were promised perennial playoff contention. But it seems there’s no other choice with this core, these assets, and the management’s behavior over the last 12 months.

In short, save your money on that Juan Soto jersey for something more useful. 

This part is a bit speculative, but it’s worth noting: The Mets aren’t just messy; they seem chaotic. Someone will write an amazing book about the 2020s Mets, which could be the inverse of Moneyball.

Since Cohen took over in 2021, the Mets have gone through six baseball ops heads (counting the brief tenure of Brodie Van Wagenen), three managers, and (probably) a second mid-season teardown in a row.

Why does this matter? Pair the churn in the dugout and front office with on-field dysfunction, public ultimatums, occasional stray tweets, and a lack of a strong core or overflowing farm system. These factors won’t necessarily scare off players if the Mets are the only team offering a massive contract. But compared to the situations in the Bronx, LA, or Philadelphia, how do the Mets win at the bargaining table without grossly overpaying for stars like Soto and Burnes? Even then, there are no guarantees.

If you think this isn’t a concern, consider Cohen’s own words from a June 2023 press conference before the sell-off: “If you want to attract good people to this organization, the worst thing you can do is be impulsive and win the headline for the day. Overall, over time, you’re not going to attract the best talent.”

He’s also not Fred Wilpon, seemingly refusing to field a competitive team. Cohen wants to win. He has tried to win. But he has failed, and under his watch, the Mets don’t seem like a calm or enticing destination, despite their financial strength and the stabilizing presence of David Stearns.

To change that, the Mets need to stick to a plan (and a management team) and then need a lot of luck, more humility, and more time than anyone imagined when Cohen bought the team in 2020, when everything seemed to be coming together quickly in 2022, and on Opening Day this year when it was easy to feel hopeful.

The delusions about shocking the world, the value of unicorns, and fantasies and half-measures aren’t helping anyone. It’s time for the Mets to accept reality, reset, rebuild, reimagine—whatever you want to call it—just get it over with already.

This post by Jason Tabrys appeared first on Just Baseball.

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Buy Low Building

This offseason, the team navigated the edges of a peculiar free-agent market, publicly courting Yoshinobu Yamamoto and promoting the idea of being “competitive,” but refrained from making any significant long-term commitments. They also missed out on high-profile manager Craig Counsell, opting instead for Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza.

Stearns has had success with many of his low-risk acquisitions, including Mendoza (despite some rookie mistakes). While not fully restored to his previous form as a frontline starter, Luis Severino has been very good. Sean Manaea has also proven to be a reliable rotation option.

Reliever Jorge Lopez has revived his career, not quite reaching his All-Star level from Baltimore but still being a positive story for the team. Last-minute signing JD Martinez took some time to get healthy and acclimated, but he is now performing as expected with the bat.

Despite the Mets' struggles (are they bad, unlucky, or both?), things could have been much worse if those three pitchers had performed closer to their recent track records. The same goes for the impact of Martinez in deepening the lineup. None of these pickups are the problem, which complicates finding a straightforward solution.

Stale Core

Entering this season, the consensus was that Edwin Diaz’s return from injury would be a game-changer and that Pete Alonso, the Mets’ most beloved and impactful homegrown player since David Wright, would continue to be one of the game’s most feared power hitters. However, 2024 has not unfolded as expected for either player.

Diaz has faced notable struggles, contributing to some of the Mets’ most heartbreaking losses. Despite this, it's hard to count him out. Diaz has the talent to potentially return to his 2020-2021 form, where he was one of the top bullpen arms in the league. He might not reach the heights of his incredible 2022 season, but he can still be a significant asset.

Relief pitchers are notoriously volatile, so Diaz’s situation isn’t entirely surprising.

Alonso, meanwhile, is likely to improve his average and find more consistency at the plate. Signs already indicate he’s on the right track. His relative struggles highlight the volatility inherent in players with his profile.

Beyond Diaz and Alonso, Francisco Lindor, a prime candidate for a rebound based on his track record, has also struggled, as has Jeff McNeil (for the second consecutive season and third in four). Brandon Nimmo has been solid but not spectacular, Starling Marte has been about league-average, which is a modest win, and Jose Quintana might be past his prime.

If there’s any remaining hope among the fanbase, it rests on Kodai Senga (shoulder/tricep) and Francisco Alvarez (thumb) returning strong from their injuries in the coming weeks. This hope might not be solely for the sake of the 2024 season but as an indicator that the Mets have sturdy long-term pieces to build around.

The Kids on the Farm

The silver lining to the Mets’ sell-off last year was that Cohen opened his checkbook to pay down Verlander and Scherzer’s contracts to get better prospects in return, including Drew Gilbert, Ryan Clifford, and Luisangel Acuña. This approach raises the question of whether he’ll do it again to offload players like Jeff McNeil and Starling Marte.

Due to these acquisitions, generally solid drafts, and player development gains aided by infrastructure improvements, the Mets’ farm system is now regarded as being in or near the top 10, which is a significant improvement. However, a closer look at the players within that system reveals questions about the ceilings of some of their most highly regarded prospects and how far away they are from contributing.

Is Drew Gilbert the next Brandon Nimmo or Harrison Bader? Will Ryan Clifford reduce his strikeouts and increase his in-game power? Is Luisangel Acuña more of a superstar or a super-utility player? Similar questions arise for other top prospects like Jett Williams, Kevin Parada, and Mike Vasil, especially the latter two, who have struggled this season.

The early MLB successes of Christian Scott and Mark Vientos in 2024 show that players don’t always have to be consensus top 50 prospects to make a positive impact. Conversely, Brett Baty’s early struggles demonstrate that status isn’t a guarantee either and that prospects, regardless of their pedigree, are essentially lottery tickets.

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What's Next for Alonso?

The Mets may have already offered Pete Alonso the most they ever will, based on the reported 7-year, $158 million contract his former reps rejected last summer. His current agent, Scott Boras, is unlikely to accept such a number, and it’s debatable whether the Mets should go higher.

Alonso, known for his raw power and fan appeal, might have his best days behind him. He’s not the type of complete hitter like Freddie Freeman or Paul Goldschmidt, whom he’s trying to out-earn. Those players offer more security against skill erosion into their 30s. Freeman and Goldschmidt were consistent threats to hit near .300 and get on base almost 40% of the time from their age-30 to age-34 seasons, the prime years of an Alonso extension. In contrast, Alonso hit .217 last year with a .318 OBP, and this year, his OBP is closer to .300.

While moving on from Alonso would be a significant gamble and a commitment to a youth movement, it might be the prudent choice. The Mets parted ways with Jacob deGrom because they didn’t believe his demands aligned with his future performance. They are about to retire Darryl Strawberry’s number, yet once let him leave for the Dodgers.

The only real unicorn is David Wright, who spent his entire career with the Mets. Wright signed an 8-year deal at Alonso's current age but only played the equivalent of two more seasons due to a back injury, retiring in 2018.

Remember, a unicorn is a mythical creature.

Alonso’s situation brings to mind the Orioles and Chris Davis about a decade ago. Davis, a fan favorite on a winning team, convinced the Orioles to sign him to a massive contract, partly motivated by sentimentality. When Davis declined, the contract crippled the team as he morphed from a Three True Outcomes player to just one (strikeouts).

As painful as it may be, if the Mets have similar concerns, aren’t willing to exceed their previous offer, and don’t embark on a winning streak soon, they should trade Alonso while they can and start the rebuild.

The 2025 Mets

With the Mets’ mix of moderately priced, highly tradeable rentals, mid-tier core players, and a farm system filled with both potential and significant questions, it's fair to question when the Mets' real window for contention will open. Right now, 2024 looks bleak, 2025 seems like wishful thinking, and 2026 doesn’t feel guaranteed either.

Let’s break it down, assuming things don’t improve and the Mets decide to sell. This would leave a core of the untradeable players: Lindor, Nimmo, Alvarez, Senga, and Diaz (whatever form he’s in). Additionally, let's assume Vientos and Scott continue to perform at 80-110% of their current levels.

Where is all that talent coming from?

Some of the pieces they get back for trading Alonso, JD, and others may help, assuming they aim for more Major League-ready talent (which might mean players with higher floors and lower ceilings). There are also some useful players on the roster who could serve as filler or maybe more, like Drew Smith, Tyrone Taylor, and possibly David Peterson and Tylor Megill. However, much of the needed talent will likely have to come from the free agent market and, to a lesser extent, trades. 

The Issue With Steve Cohen

Hearing some Mets fans suggest that signing Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes will solve all the team's problems is reminiscent of that Seinfeld moment when George Costanza pitched a plan to get Barry Bonds and Ken Griffey Jr. on the Yankees without giving up anything significant.

These kinds of fan fantasies rarely materialize, even with a billionaire owner who once seemed willing to spend whatever it took to field a winner. It’s unrealistic to assume Steve Cohen will commit the billion (or billion and a half) dollars needed to make the Mets contenders again, at least not in the upcoming offseason.

Why have we always assumed the Mets would unleash their financial power in 2025 after sitting out 2024? Has Stearns or Cohen explicitly stated that, or is it just an expectation that became fact? The only consistent message has been about patience, hints at playing at the top of the market sometimes, and the need to create a development pipeline. They also mentioned no reset years, but the Mets' plans often seem to invite divine laughter followed by a few smacks upside the head.

The Mets are struggling this year despite a payroll north of $300 million. Yes, a lot of money will come off the books next year, but the Mets paid about $100 million in luxury taxes for the underwhelming 2023 team on top of $320 million in payroll. The bill will be similar for this year’s underperforming squad. Cutting payroll drastically allows them to reset the luxury tax rate and pay less for future splurges in 2026 and beyond. It’s good business, even if it means bad baseball and worse optics for those who were promised perennial playoff contention. But it seems there’s no other choice with this core, these assets, and the management’s behavior over the last 12 months.

In short, save your money on that Juan Soto jersey for something more useful. 

This part is a bit speculative, but it’s worth noting: The Mets aren’t just messy; they seem chaotic. Someone will write an amazing book about the 2020s Mets, which could be the inverse of Moneyball.

Since Cohen took over in 2021, the Mets have gone through six baseball ops heads (counting the brief tenure of Brodie Van Wagenen), three managers, and (probably) a second mid-season teardown in a row.

Why does this matter? Pair the churn in the dugout and front office with on-field dysfunction, public ultimatums, occasional stray tweets, and a lack of a strong core or overflowing farm system. These factors won’t necessarily scare off players if the Mets are the only team offering a massive contract. But compared to the situations in the Bronx, LA, or Philadelphia, how do the Mets win at the bargaining table without grossly overpaying for stars like Soto and Burnes? Even then, there are no guarantees.

If you think this isn’t a concern, consider Cohen’s own words from a June 2023 press conference before the sell-off: “If you want to attract good people to this organization, the worst thing you can do is be impulsive and win the headline for the day. Overall, over time, you’re not going to attract the best talent.”

He’s also not Fred Wilpon, seemingly refusing to field a competitive team. Cohen wants to win. He has tried to win. But he has failed, and under his watch, the Mets don’t seem like a calm or enticing destination, despite their financial strength and the stabilizing presence of David Stearns.

To change that, the Mets need to stick to a plan (and a management team) and then need a lot of luck, more humility, and more time than anyone imagined when Cohen bought the team in 2020, when everything seemed to be coming together quickly in 2022, and on Opening Day this year when it was easy to feel hopeful.

The delusions about shocking the world, the value of unicorns, and fantasies and half-measures aren’t helping anyone. It’s time for the Mets to accept reality, reset, rebuild, reimagine—whatever you want to call it—just get it over with already.

This post by Jason Tabrys appeared first on Just Baseball.

Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.