Guardians vs Tigers Divisional Playoffs Predictions | MLB Picks Today, Best Bets
Grant White
Host · Writer
The Wild Card Round is in the rearview mirror, and our sights are now firmly set on the Divisional Round. The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers hold the honor of kicking off the second round of the MLB Postseason with Saturday’s matinee in The Forest City. With nearly a week to prepare, the Guardians send Tanner Bibee to the mound for the series opener, with Detroit still figuring out how to deploy its pitchers for the ALDS. Irrespective of the starters, runs will be at a premium when these AL Central rivals take to the diamond.
Guardians vs Tigers Series Schedule
- Game 1: Saturday, October 5 – 1:08 pm ET @ Progressive Field
- Game 2: Monday, October 7 – 4:08 pm ET @ Progressive Field
- Game 3: Wednesday, October 9 – TBD @ Comerica Park
- Game 4: Thursday, October 10 – TBD @ Comerica Park (if necessary)
- Game 5: Saturday, October 12 – TBD @ Progressive Field (if necessary)
Guardians vs Tigers Series Odds
- Series Odds: Guardians -130 | Tigers +108
- Series Spread: Guardians -1.5 (+164) | Tigers +1.5 (-214)
- Series Total: OVER 4.5 (+154) | UNDER 4.5 (-192)
Guardians vs Tigers Series Winner Best Bet: Guardians -130
Recency bias has tilted the betting market away from the Cleveland Guardians. Detroit made short work of the Houston Astros in the Wild Card Round, building off their solid end to the campaign. With a playoff spot secured, the Tigers dropped the final two games of the regular season, halting a six-game win streak and accounting for two of their losses across a 13-game sample. However, those wins are coming on unsubstantiated grounds. Over the last two weeks, Detroit has the 20th-ranked OPS and 12th-ranked ERA, hardly compatible with the number of wins they’ve accumulated. Moreover, the Guardians are one of the major’s stingiest teams and have a proven track record of grinding out wins. Inevitable regression impacts the Tigers’ outlook, leaving an edge in backing the Guardians as undervalued favorites.
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Guardians vs Tigers Best Bet Total: Over 4.5
While we’re anticipating some regression from the Tigers, we’re still anticipating a hard-fought series. The Guardians haven’t blown their opponents out of the water this season. Cleveland’s 17th-ranked OPS and 14th-ranked runs scored don’t inspire much confidence against a Detroit side that has been effective at limiting opponents of late. That matches Cleveland’s pitching-first mentality, making this a grudge match of epic proportions. The odds imply this will be a closely fought series, but the over 4.5 is set at +154. We’re playing that advantage and betting this ALDS series goes the distance.
Guardians vs Tigers Best Player Props
Kerry Carpenter to Record Ten or More Hits +1000
With this series anticipated to go the distance, there’s value in backing at least one player to record ten or more hits. Kerry Carpenter has emerged as the catalyst for the Tigers’ offense, and he’s riding a torrid streak into the ALDS. The former 19th-round pick has recorded hits in seven of his past ten outings, with five of his eight knocks going for extra bags. Moreover, his underlying metrics support the fact that he’s operating at a sustainable pace. He faces a stiff challenge against the Guardians’ staff but has a proven track record against his ALDS opponents. In limited action, he has a .429 batting average against Cleveland pitchers this season, with all three hits going for extra bags. Cemented into the heart of the Tigers’ order, he’ll have ample opportunity to build off that success in the postseason. As a result, we’re taking him to surpass ten hits in Round 2 of the MLB Postseason.
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