Home Run Derby Predictions: Low Star Power This Year

Star Power Fizzles, But the Show Must Go On

The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby has taken a noticeable hit in buzz. With Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers, Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees, Pete Alonso of the New York Mets, and other marquee sluggers opting out, the field lacks that “must-watch” energy fans have come to expect. Even Ronald Acuña Jr. of the Atlanta Braves dropped out, leading to a late addition in Matt Olson, also of the Braves.

But the Derby isn’t dead. The bright side? Monday is a baseball-exclusive evening. No NBA, no NFL, no Olympics. And for fans of raw power, 500-foot moonshots still await—just with lesser-known names taking the hacks.

2025 Derby Field Highlights: The Case for the Contenders

While the star power is diminished, the matchups are wide open—and that makes for a ripe betting opportunity. Here’s a look at some of the top contenders and their odds:

Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays (+340 to +400)

The breakout Tampa Bay slugger is the chalk favorite for a reason. He’s entered the Derby as arguably the hottest power bat in baseball and has the compact swing and build that typically fares well in this format. Expect consistent elevation and line drive power deep into each round.

James Wood of the Washington Nationals (+480)

A compelling longshot-turned-legit pick. Wood was the first confirmed participant, giving him the longest runway to prepare. According to reports, he’s structured his batting practices to emulate Derby conditions, simulating round formats and recovery time. If preparation matters, he’s worth a serious wager.

Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins (+650)

The sentimental favorite for many fans—and some hosts at SportsGrid. Buxton has been a guest-favorite and fan-friendly face of the game for years. His power is undeniable, but his health and stamina remain wildcards. If he catches rhythm in Round 1, the crowd will erupt.

Brent Rooker of the Athletics (+850 to +1000)

Perhaps the best value left on the board. Rooker’s odds flipped overnight after gaining sharp interest—jumping from +1200 to nearly co-favorite status with Caminero. He’s built for power but enters as a low-profile name. That sleeper status might just work in his favor.

Jazz Chisholm of the Yankees (+1100 or higher)

He’s got swagger and raw strength, but this feels like a mismatch. Jazz has the juice for a highlight reel round, but maintaining that explosiveness through multiple rounds may be a stretch. He’s likely more of a fan-service pick than a betting favorite.

Betting Strategy: Ride the Hot Bat, Prep Matters

If you’re wagering the Home Run Derby, keep two things in mind:

• Rhythm and conditioning matter more than reputation.
  
  Guys like Caminero and Wood are not household names, but their approach to this event is sharper than that of more recognizable stars who bailed.

• Fade fatigue-prone or flashy players.
  
  Chisholm may have the explosive moments, but repeating that effort over 3–4 rounds takes specific preparation—Wood, by all accounts, has done just that.

Best Bets:

• Junior Caminero to Win (+350)

• James Wood Finalist Prop / Top 2 Finish (+230 to +250)

• Brent Rooker Sleeper Pick (+900)

Next Year Already Has the Buzz: Bryce Harper in Philly?

If this year’s Derby lacks a face, next year could flip the script. With Citizens Bank Park hosting, expect Bryce Harper to headline. That’s a ready-made ratings boost and exactly the kind of name the 2025 edition missed.

But for now, bettors and fans should embrace this wide-open field, where preparation, youth, and hunger could deliver a new Home Run Derby champion.

Final Call: Root for Buxton, Bet on Caminero or Wood, and Expect Fireworks

It may not be the most star-studded Derby in recent memory, but it’s shaping up to be one of the most competitive. With long odds and big swings, value lives in the shadows, and that’s where new legends are made.

You can read all about what’s going on in Major League Baseball at SportsGrid.com.