MLB · 1 year ago

Marlins vs. Rockies Predictions | MLB Picks Today, Best Bets

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Marlins vs. Rockies Predictions | MLB Picks Today, Best Bets

Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies @ 7:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Edward Cabrera (5.65 ERA) vs. TBD (— ERA)

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The Rockies’ “TBD” is projected to be Ryan Feltner returning from the IL. If it’s not, we’ll likely get some opener before Feltner comes in. Regardless, I didn’t press the “action” button for Feltner because I don’t see any edge in whether he starts or comes in after. This is about playing a system on the Rockies, tailing the rested bullpen, and betting on the better offense.

The biggest bet of my life is the under 78.5 wins for the Miami Marlins, and with a loss today, we look it in with the Marlins’ 84th loss of the season. Is that influencing this pick? Not really. We could have taken the Cubs yesterday, but I didn’t. I’m taking the Rockies today, though, for multiple reasons.

Let’s start with the system(s) because there are multiple here. If you fade the Marlins in the first game of any series since 2020, you are 70-26, and you’ve won eight of your last ten bets. That’s taking a three-year sample, but just this year, the Marlins are 7-26 in the first game of a series.

Beyond the Marlins’ terrible first game, the Rockies tend to have a leg up in the first game when both teams travel in. That system is 272-274, and the Rockies are usually underdogs in this spot.

When that road team made the playoffs last year, and they aren’t in the NL West, the Rockies ML is 49-33 in this spot, and they are 5-0 this season for a total ROI of 27%. The historical trends tell us to back the Rockies blindly without any other analysis.

However, I’d be making this bet even without those systems. My brain will never let me tail a system if the matchup doesn’t make sense, but this one does.

Edward Cabrera has yet to learn where the ball is going once it leaves his hands. His 13% walk rate is in the fifth percentile. It’s already easy to hit at Coors Field, but when you’re allowing that many free passes, it can go bad really quickly. Cabrera used to be able to skate by with elite stuff that helped him rack up strikeouts and keep the hard contact down.

That has yet to be the case for him this season. The walks are still very much there, but his 45.9% Hard-Hit rate is in the sixth percentile, which is 10% higher than last year. He threw at Coors the previous year and allowed three runs over six innings. I can’t see him outperforming that today with his downtick in production.

Following Cabrera will be a horrific Marlins bullpen. Since the trade deadline, this bullpen has a 5.91 ERA, ranking 27th in the league. It’s a young bullpen, as most of the quality arms were traded at the deadline, so it will likely be a lot of their first time pitching there. Good luck.

The Rockies can hit righties at home. They have a .769 OPS against right-handed pitching at home this season, which ranks ninth in the league. Since July 1, they have an .823 OPS, ranking seventh in the league. Since August 1, they have a .751 OPS, which ranks 14th. This team can score against righties at home.

The Marlins OPS against righties has been under .700 since August began. They also have a lot of young players who have never played at Coors Field before. The altitude affects the ball’s flight, so if you’ve never seen it, it can trip you up early.

The Rockies have the better offense, and I prefer their bullpen game plan with Feltner returning over a young Miami staff where many are making their Coors debut. The Rockies are 29-33 at home this year, a better record than the Red Sox have in Fenway. The Marlins are terrible on the road; they have the third-worst record only after the Rockies and White Sox.

The Rockies will secure a unit for us in the short term and lock in our five-unit win total.