Mets vs. Dodgers Game 1 Prediction | NLCS Picks Today, Best Bets
Grant White
Host · Writer
A spot in the World Series is on the line as the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets get down to business in the National League Championship Series. Everyone expected LA to be here, but the Mets have caught everyone off guard with their surprising playoff run. Late-game heroics have become the hallmark of their success, but the Mets will face a more daunting challenge in trying to score on the Dodgers’ elite bullpen. Bettors have installed the Dodgers as the favorites in the series, a distinction that’s also reflected in Game 1’s betting odds. Still, there’s an advantage in backing the home side on Sunday night.
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Where to Watch Mets vs. Dodgers NLCS Game 1
- Location: Dodger Stadium
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET | Where to Watch: Fox, SN1
- Spread: Dodgers -1.5 | Moneyline: Dodgers -158 | Total: 8
Mets vs. Dodgers NLCS Game 1 Best Bet ATS: Dodgers -158
The Mets deserve a ton of credit for their determination to get this far, but they’re also walking an unsustainable path. New York has trailed in six of seven postseason games, relying on late-inning comebacks to tilt the odds in their favor. They won’t have that luxury against the Dodgers. LA’s bullpen has been one of the best this postseason, putting together a sparkling 2.22 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and a .187 opponent batting average. Further, they’ve struck out 26 batters across 24.1 innings pitched for a tidy 9.6 K/9 rate.
We’re also anticipating regression from Kodai Senga in Sunday’s series opener. Senga has pitched 7.1 innings this year, with two of those coming in Game 1 of the NLDS. It’s unlikely he matches his performance from last week against a potent Dodgers lineup that mashes at home. We’re using this spot to back LA at a lower-than-anticipated price.
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Mets vs. Dodgers NLCS Game 1 Best Bet Total: Under 8
Jack Flaherty takes the ball for the Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLCS, looking to improve on his last outing. Thankfully, he’s earmarked for progression after a flat showing last time out. The Dodgers’ trade deadline acquisition didn’t make it out of the sixth inning against the San Diego Padres, giving up four earned runs for a 6.75 ERA. That’s a substantial departure from his regular season ERA of 3.17, making tonight’s start an ideal bounce-back spot.
Although Senga might face some difficulties on the mound, the rest of the Mets’ bullpen should fare better. All the relievers are rested, affording manager Carlos Mendoza all the flexibility he needs in setting his pitchers up for success. The end result should be a low-scoring game that stays below the total.
Mets vs. Dodgers NLCS Game 1 Best Player Props
Teoscar Hernandez to Hit a Home Run +560
Teoscar Hernandez should not be priced this far down the home run board. The Home Run Derby winner swatted two home runs in the NLDS, leading the Dodgers in slugging percentage and RBI. His best efforts have been at Dodger Stadium all season, with 20 of his 33 homers in the regular season coming at Chavez Ravine. However, his advantage is more pronounced than that. Hernandez can hit anything, setting him up for success no matter who the Mets throw his way.
His .487 slugging percentage off fastballs was the worst of any category, with Hernandez slugging .513 off breaking pitches and .563 on offspeed offerings. In total, his .501 slugging percentage was the best it has been since 2021 and well within the expected range. Hernandez has shown a knack for coming up big when the Dodgers need him most, and we expect him to deliver again on Sunday night.
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