MLB · 4 hours ago

MLB Best Bets Today: Friday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (September 12)

Gabriel Santiago

Host · Writer

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There is no stopping us now. The MLB season has hit the September stretch run, and with games daily, there’s no shortage of betting opportunities leading into October. We’ve got you covered for Friday’s baseball schedule!

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Where to Watch Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Ballpark: Rogers Centre
Location: Toronto, ON
Where to Watch: Sportsnet, MASN2
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
Spread: TOR -1.5 (+152) | Total: 8 (-105/-115)
Moneyline: BAL +114 | TOR -134

Out in the AL East, the Toronto Blue Jays are hosting the Baltimore Orioles at Rogers Centre. On the bump, RHP Chris Bassitt and LHP Trevor Rogers will get the baseball for their respective sides.

We are officially in the stretch run of the 2025 campaign, and for the season’s entirety, overs in Blue Jays home games have been highly profitable. This year, the over has converted in 60% (42-28-2) of contests played in Toronto. That is a figure that cannot be ignored, especially since the Jays only have three remaining series in Canada before the playoffs begin.

Admittedly, Rogers—the pitcher, not the ballpark—has been quite stingy in 2025. Throughout 15 starts for Baltimore, he boasts a 3.61 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). Toronto has not seen Rogers this season, but the Blue Jays have earned a .767 OPS versus southpaw pitching.

Across the way, Bassitt has been so-so in 30 appearances, currently carrying a 4.11 FIP. He pitched against the Orioles as recently as July, surrendering six runs over 2.1 innings.

We are rooting for offense as we head into the weekend; give me over eight runs (-105 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook) north of the border.

Best Bet: Over 8 (-105)

Where to Watch Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants

Ballpark: Oracle Park
Location: San Francisco, CA
Where to Watch: SNLA, NBCSBA, MLBN
Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
Spread: LAD -1.5 (+110) | Total: 7.5 (-122/+100)
Moneyline: LAD -158 | SF +134

For one of MLB’s oldest and fiercest rivalries, the Los Angeles Dodgers will head up the California coast to take on the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. In Friday’s series opener, expect to see Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Justin Verlander toeing the rubber.

Notably, Yamamoto is coming off a performance in Baltimore wherein he lost a no-hit bid dramatically. He’s been amazing in 2025, showing a 1.01 WHIP, but he did have a bad outing against this same Giants team earlier in the year; back in June, San Francisco tagged him for five runs and two homers over 4.2 innings.

Verlander has labored in his lone campaign playing in the Bay Area. He’s posted a 3-10 record behind a 4.30 SIERA, but for what it’s worth, he’s not allowed a run in back-to-back starts.

It will be a clear night on the shores of McCovey Cove, which is actually rare for this time of year. The Dodgers are still one of the top lineups in baseball, as exemplified by their .766 OPS (tops in the National League). In the other dugout, the Giants have been on an offensive tear as of late; since August 27, they have plated 7.29 runs per game.

I like the over in this NL West classic. Despite San Francisco’s long-shot odds (+570) to make the postseason, I anticipate the competition to be contentious on Friday, and with that, eight or more total runs produced.