MLB · 1 hour ago

MLB Best Bets Today: Wednesday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (September 17)

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

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Wednesday’s MLB slate sets up perfectly for two moneyline spots backed by elite pitching and reliable offensive trends. The Toronto Blue Jays look to cap off a series win in Tampa behind Kevin Gausman, who’s been dominant since the All-Star break and just blanked Houston in a two-hit shutout. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers send Jacob deGrom to the mound as they fight to stay alive in the wild-card race. Even with injuries to Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Adolis Garcia, young bats like Wyatt Langford and Michael Helman have provided a spark.

We’re aiming to get over Hump Day with a two-for-two showing, so let’s get it!

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Where to Watch Blue Jays vs Rays

Ballpark: George M. Steinbrenner Field
Location: Tampa, Florida
Where to Watch: FDSSUN, SNET
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Spread: TOR -1.5 (+136) | Total: 7.5
Moneyline: TOR -130 | TB +110

Bet 1: Blue Jays Moneyline -130

The Toronto Blue Jays look to extend their win streak to seven games and secure a series win against the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday night. Toronto won its second straight in Tampa with a 6-5 victory last night.

Toronto’s offense has been about as reliable as it gets this season. The Blue Jays own the league’s best batting average at .269, comfortably ahead of the pack, and they also lead the way in on-base percentage at .337. Factor in a third-place ranking in OPS (.760) and a top-four mark in runs per game (5.01), and you’ve got a lineup that delivers night after night.

The underlying metrics back it up. Toronto sits first in expected batting average (.271), while also checking in at sixth in xwOBA (.340) and sixth in expected slugging (.443). That mix of consistent contact and real pop has kept them locked in as one of the game’s most efficient run-scoring machines from April through September.

On the mound, they have their ace to secure the series in Tampa. Kevin Gausman has been lights out in the second half. The former Baltimore Oriole has lowered his ERA more than a run since late June, on the strength of allowing two runs or fewer in six of his past seven starts. Gausman is coming off an absolute gem last week against the Houston Astros. The veteran righty put up a complete game two-hit shutout while striking out nine last Thursday. Gausman is certainly Toronto’s pitching MVP and should continue to roll against a Tampa team way out of the playoff mix.

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Where to Watch Rangers vs Astros

Ballpark: Daikin Park
Location: Houston, Texas
Where to Watch: SCHN, RSN
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Spread: TEX -1.5 (+128) | Total: 7.5
Moneyline: TEX -134 | HOU +114

Bet 2: Rangers Moneyline -134

The Texas Rangers are clinging to their wild-card hopes, sitting 3.5 back as they look to salvage their last game of the season against the Houston Astros. Texas dropped its first two games of this three-game set and desperately needs a win to keep its playoff dreams a reality.

We’re siding with Texas on the moneyline against Houston, and the case begins with Jacob deGrom. The Rangers ace has finally rounded back into form, delivering his best season in years. He’s logged 162.2 innings — his heaviest workload since 2019 — while stacking up 12 wins, 14 quality starts, and a crisp 2.82 ERA. His 0.92 WHIP is the second-lowest mark in baseball, proof that when he’s healthy, there isn’t a tougher pitcher to square up. Every time he gets the ball, Texas carries an advantage.

The stuff still jumps off the page. deGrom’s fastball averages 97.5 MPH, ranking in the top eight percent of big-league arms, and hitters aren’t catching up. He’s posting a 32.6% chase rate (top 10%) and a 30.0% whiff rate (top 18%), fueling a 27.1% strikeout rate that keeps him among the elite.

It isn’t just deGrom, either — Texas has been one of the sport’s best pitching staffs all season. The Rangers lead MLB in team ERA (3.44) and WHIP (1.17), pairing frontline dominance with a bullpen that sits top five across the board. Even before shoring up the group at the deadline with SP Merrill Kelly and RP Phil Maton, the pen ranked seventh in ERA (3.66) and third in WHIP (1.22).

Pitching dominance has been essential given the Rangers’ offensive struggles for much of the season. Texas ranks just 18th in scoring at 4.2 runs per game, with injuries gutting the middle of the order. Corey Seager has been sidelined since August 27, Marcus Semien may be done for the year with a foot injury, and Adolis Garcia just got back from the IL following a quad strain. Even so, the bats have started to heat up lately. Over the last month, the Rangers have been putting up 5.2 runs per game (eighth in MLB), while hitting .261 (sixth) with a .768 OPS (ninth). Young contributors like Wyatt Langford and Michael Helman have stepped into bigger roles, keeping this lineup afloat in the playoff chase.

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