MLB Futures Betting: Odds Updates Post-MLB Trade Deadline

The MLB MVP race is heating up, and sharp bettors are keeping a close eye on the odds. With the season’s second half in full swing, recent injuries and hot streaks have triggered dramatic shifts in the MVP betting markets. Let’s break down where the value lies and which players are emerging as frontrunners.

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Aaron Judge Regains Favorite Status in American League MVP Race

Last week, Cal Raleigh was holding the edge in the AL MVP odds, sitting as the favorite at -125. Fast forward just a few days, and the betting landscape has flipped — Aaron Judge is now the clear frontrunner at -210.

So, what caused this swing in the odds?

It’s simple: Cal Raleigh didn’t deliver when it mattered. Since the Judge injury news broke, Raleigh has only managed to hit one home run. Meanwhile, speculation around Judge’s injury being less severe than anticipated boosted confidence in his return. Judge, who’s batting close to .330 this season, still holds massive advantages in key metrics like wOBA, WRC+, and batting average. Even if Raleigh outpaces him in home runs or RBIs, the overall stat line favors Judge by a wide margin.

Key Takeaway for Bettors

If Judge returns at even 75% of his usual production, he remains the strongest candidate to claim the AL MVP title.

Shohei Ohtani: Unstoppable in the National League MVP Race

Over in the National League MVP betting market, Shohei Ohtani continues to dominate with odds hovering around -900. His closest competition? Pete Crow-Armstrong at +950, followed by Kyle Schwarber at 12-to-1 and Manny Machado at 40-to-1.

Can Anyone Catch Ohtani?

Realistically, no — unless two things happen:

• Ohtani suffers a significant injury that sidelines him for a prolonged stretch.

• One of the challengers goes on a historic run, such as Crow-Armstrong hitting 70+ home runs.

Earlier this week, Ohtani briefly left a start due to what was described as “lower body fatigue,” which temporarily narrowed the odds. PCA’s odds improved to +500 during that scare, but once Ohtani was declared healthy, the market quickly corrected.

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AL East Division Race: Red Sox Heating Up Behind Blue Jays

The AL East has taken an interesting turn. The Toronto Blue Jays still lead the division, but the Boston Red Sox have quietly climbed to second place after winning four straight games, overtaking the New York Yankees, who’ve now lost two in a row to the Marlins.

Are the Red Sox Legit Contenders?

While the Red Sox are in a solid position for a wild card run, their pitching depth remains a concern. Their bullpen and offensive production are improving, but without a stronger rotation, challenging for the division title is a stretch.

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AL Central: Can Anyone Catch the Tigers?

In the AL Central, the Detroit Tigers maintain a comfortable 8-game lead. However, the Cleveland Guardians are showing life, winning four in a row and cutting the gap slightly.

Realistic Wild Card Hopes for the Guardians

Even if Cleveland makes a run, their pitching and a weakened bullpen (especially with Class A out) may hinder their ability to close the gap. Look for them more as a wild card hopeful rather than a true division threat.

AL West: A Three-Team Showdown Emerges

The AL West is shaping up to be the most competitive division in the league. The Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners, and Texas Rangers are all within striking distance.

Why This Race Matters for Bettors

• Astros are currently leading but struggling with injuries.

• Mariners made strong moves at the trade deadline and look more dangerous.

• Rangers bolstered their pitching staff with the addition of Merrill Kelly.

With approximately 60 games left, this race promises tight margins and late-season fireworks, perfect for live betting opportunities.

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Final Thoughts: Where the Value Lies Now

For those diving into MLB futures markets, here’s where you may still find value bets:

• Aaron Judge MVP: Despite short odds, still worth a look if you believe in his recovery.

• AL West Division Winner: With Houston’s injuries, a small play on the Mariners or Rangers may yield a nice return.

• Red Sox Wild Card: Not division winners, but certainly playoff-worthy based on current momentum.

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