MLB · 1 month ago

MLB on FOX: Red Sox vs Cubs Same Game Parlay Picks Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB on FOX: Red Sox vs Cubs Same Game Parlay Picks Today

It’s always a treat when value jumps off the board, and that’s exactly what we’re getting with tonight’s MLB same game parlay. With the Chicago Cubs surging at the plate and Shota Imanaga dealing on the mound, this is the perfect spot to back Chicago in multiple ways. The Boston Red Sox lineup has been less potent on the road, and advanced metrics suggest regression is forthcoming. Add in a tasty strikeout prop at plus money, and we’ve got a three-leg SGP that packs punch and upside.

Let’s break down why the value is too good to pass up for this nationally broadcasted Primetime MLB matchup.

BOS vs CHC Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Red Sox vs Cubs

Ballpark: Wrigley Field
Location: Chicago, IL
Where to Watch: FOX. Marquee Sports Network, NESN (local)
Where to Stream: Fubo
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Spread: CHI -1.5 (+134) | Total: 9
Moneyline: BOS +124 | CHI -146

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 1: Cubs Moneyline -146

I’m actually surprised we are able to get this nice of a price with the Cubs at home and Shota Imanaga on the mound. We’ll get into the resume of Chicago’s starting pitcher in our next leg Just know for now, he’s the Cubs starter you’d want pitching for this leg. He’s also got a more than capable offense behind him.

The Cubs have been one of the better lineups in baseball in 2025, adding power to what has typically been a pitter-patter offense over recent years. Chicago has hit the third-most home runs (143) in the league this year and is just two back of the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL lead. Naturally, that’s led to the boys of Wrigley sitting second in MLB in runs scored, again just two back of the Dodgers. The Cubs also sport the fourth-best OPS in the bigs at .770, while their advanced metrics are equally impressive.

Chicago is second with an xBA of .267, 12 points higher than its season batting average, which suggests there is more to come for these Cubbies. The team is also just one point from the league lead in xSLG (.471), while third in xwOBA (.471) and fifth with an xwOBACON of .401. They also rank third, hitting 10.5% of barrels on the season.

Red Sox starter Brayan Bello has been pretty solid this season, pitching to a 3.14 ERA, but he still sometimes struggles with allowing too many baserunners. With an unflattering WHIP of 1.28 and unflattering advanced metrics, it’s not hard to imagine Bello struggling with Chicago’s potent lineup. The 26-year-old’s xERA (4.25) is more than a run higher than his earned run average, so regression is likely coming. While Bello sports an opponent’s batting average of .243, his xBA sits at .261, which is in the bottom 30 percent of baseball. It doesn’t help Bello’s cause that Chicago ranks third in OPS (.779) against righties.

I like the Cubs to cruise to another victory, just like they did in yesterday’s series opener. If you’re looking for extra value and want to lay a single bet, I don’t mind a play on the 1.5 run line at +130.

Leg 2: Red Sox Under 3.5 Runs +120

Along with a great price on the moneyline, I love that we are getting plus money on this Boston under.

On the bump, Shota Imanaga has been a beast for Chicago this season, rocking a 2.65 ERA, to go along with a sparkling WHIP under one. The Japanese hurler is 6-3 on the season and has lost just once in his past six outings. Since returning from a left hamstring strain in late June that cost him seven weeks, Imanaga has given up just six earned runs, going at least five innings in every start. The 31-year-old lefty is coming off his best start over that stretch just six days ago. Imanaga baffled the New York Yankees for seven innings, where he allowed just two hits and one earned run, while picking up his sixth victory of the year.

There is no reason he can’t put forth a similar effort against a much weaker offense in the pitcher-friendly confines of Wrigley Field.

While the Red Sox offense has been good lately and for most of the year, much of that success has come at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. On the road, Boston sits around the middle of the pack in runs scored and team batting average. Their overall advanced metrics also suggest they may have had some ground-ball with eyes kind of luck so far this season.

Boston’s xBA (.253) is just two points higher than its batting average (.251), so it wouldn’t be surprising to see a slump at the plate ahead. Add to the fact that much of their season-long stats came while perennial All-Star and offensive leader Rafael Devers was traded to the San Francisco Giants, and this team is begging for a step back.

Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily MLB Game Picks and MLB Prop Picks.

Leg 3: Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 Strikeouts +108

The stellar prices just keep coming, with us getting plus money again with Shota Imanaga on our final leg.

We’ve already sung the praises of Chicago’s No. 1 Japanese import, but there is certainly more. While Imanaga’s Ks are down a bit with 48 in 68 innings pitched this year, he does have a track record that shows he can serve up punch-outs. In his first big league season, Imanaga had 174 strikeouts in 173 innings last year. This came following his final year in the Japanese Eastern and Central League, when he averaged right around a K per inning for the Yokohama Bay Stars.

A 31.3% chase rate, which puts him in the top 19% of MLB pitchers, also paints a clearer picture of why Imanaga often leaves batters scratching their heads. Getting 10 strikeouts on 117 pitches, while holding opponents to just a .071 batting average on his sweeper this season, puts the finishing touches on the portrait. Lucky for us and Imanaga, he gets to use his weapon or paintbrush against a very swing-happy Red Sox team.

Boston ranks fourth with 470 strikeouts away from home, and third overall with 885 Ks on the season. They also sit in the bottom ten in strikeouts over their past 20+ games, so the trend is clearly continuing. It should only get worse against a pitcher with the kind of stuff Shota is swaggering.

I like Boston to whiff a lot this evening, and Imanaga to continue his stellar pitching since coming back from injury.