MLB · 3 months ago

MLB on TBS: Guardians vs Cubs Same Game Parlay Picks Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB on TBS: Guardians vs Cubs Same Game Parlay Picks Today

Tonight’s matchup at Wrigley Field features a clear edge for the Chicago Cubs as they host the struggling Cleveland Guardians under the lights in Chicago. First pitch is set for 8:00 p.m. ET on TBS, and this one sets up perfectly for bettors eyeing Chicago. Cleveland’s bats have been ice cold, ranking dead last in key advanced metrics and failing to find any rhythm against lefties—bad news against a locked-in Matthew Boyd.

Meanwhile, the Cubs’ offense remains one of MLB’s most explosive, backed by elite barrel rates and slugging power that thrives in their friendly home confines. With Boyd primed to rack up strikeouts and Dansby Swanson swinging a hot bat, this same-game parlay checks every box for value tonight.

To my compatriots to the North, I wish a Happy Canada Day! Let’s hope this patriotic day gets our SGP prowess buzzing tonight.

CLE vs CHC Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Guardians vs Cubs

Ballpark: Wrigley Field
Location: Chicago, IL
Where to Watch: TBS
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Spread: CHC -1.5 (+118) | Total: 8
Moneyline: CLE +152 | CHC -180

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 1: Cubs Run line -1.5 (+118)

The Guardians’ offense can’t be trusted to perform against anyone right now, never mind an elite team like the Cubs. Cleveland is hitting a paltry .191 over its past ten games, and has been outscored by 24 runs over that span. Losing by an average of 2.4 runs per game over the past week and a half lines up perfectly for our run line play, with much better value than the -180 moneyline.

Not only has Cleveland’s offense struggled all year with the by far the worst xBA (.229), xSLG (.376), xwOBA (.298), and xwOBACON (.344) in baseball, but it has also gotten nothing going against lefties. The Guardians are hitting .220 against LHP (28th in MLB) to go along with a league-worst .614 OPS. Southpaw Matthew Boyd (7-3, 2.65 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) should keep the Cleveland bats on ice tonight.

While low scoring on the opponent side is one side of the formula for cashing run line plays, a potent offense on the other side is also part of the equation. Chicago has been just that all season long. The Cubs are third in baseball with 124 home runs on the season, which has led to them being the second-highest scoring team in the majors (5.4 runs per game).

Chicago’s advanced analytics show exactly what powers this NL Central juggernaut. The Cubs sit third in MLB with an xBA of .267 on the year, to go along with an xwOBACON of .398 (fifth in MLB). The darlings of Wrigley hit the ball squarely with lethal precision. Chicago sits seventh in baseball with a 10.1% barrel rate, while their average launch angle of 15.8 degrees bests baseball.

I like the Cubs’ bats to continue to boom, while Cleveland’s offense is still figuring things out. The run line is a solid play here.

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Leg 2: Matthew Boyd Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+124)

It shouldn’t be too much of a surprise that we’re going with Matthew Boyd’s K prop against such a poor Cleveland lineup. Not only have the Guardians struggled getting on base against lefties, but they’ve also had trouble making contact. The lovable losers of Ohio rank sixth with 219 strikeouts on the year against left-handed pitching. They rank 18th overall in the category, so that should give you a better idea of how poorly they swing at southpaws.

Furthering Cleveland’s swing-and-miss trends through advanced analytics, we see their second-last ranking in total barrels (143) and third-last ranking in batted balls (2,025) this season. Looking at their MLB-worst 36.4% hard hit rate further exemplifies the quality, or lack thereof, of the at-bats the Guardians are having.

For the Cubs, Matthew Boyd has given them all they expected and much more in 2025. In the midst of a career year, Boyd has 82 Ks in 91.2 IP this season. The crafty lefty sits in the top 73rd percentile with a 30.4% chase rate to go along with a respectable 22.3% K rate.

Spending all that time in the AL Central with the Detroit Tigers, Boyd has seen plenty of Cleveland over the years. The veteran hurler has 75 career Ks in 88.2 IP against the Guardians.

Since Matty Boyd has gone over this prop in seven of his past 11, to go along with all the other factors working in our favor, I like him to have at least six punchouts tonight at Wrigley.

Leg 3: Dansby Swanson to Record a Hit (-185)

As anyone who has followed baseball for the past decade knows, Dansby Swanson can be one of the streakiest hitters in the game. When he’s on, he’s on, and when he’s off, look out. Thankfully for our purposes, Swanson has been heating up lately. The long-time middle infielder has hits in five of his past six games, including a three-hit performance on Saturday against the Houston Astros. Hitting in the middle of Chicago’s loaded lineup, he continues to see good pitchers and plenty of good at-bats.

Swanson’s advanced analytics suggest that he may be hitting less than he should. The former Atlanta Brave sits with an xSLG of .485, xwOBA of .348, and a 12.1% barrel rate, all well above MLB averages. Swanson’s hard hit rate of 45.7% is also impressive, to go along with a respectable 34.9% sweet spot rate.

While strikeouts continue to be a problem, all signs point to Swanson playing above his .245 season average. Putting up nearly a hit per game this season, I like Dansby to continue his hot streak tonight and even get some more ball luck.

With most players priced above -200, getting Swanson at -185 is a steal.