Wednesday was a disaster. We went 0-3, dropping 2.55 units. We built up a ton of momentum, then lost a heartbreaker with the Rockies and had a terrible Wednesday.

I didn’t see anything I liked on the Thursday board, but I did for Friday.

Let’s discuss my three favorite picks.

2024 Record: 37-42 (-6.07 U)

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals @ 6:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Yusei Kikuchi vs. Patrick Corbin

It’s always scary with Patrick Corbin, but the books often inflate totals with him on the mound. The Blue Jays have an excellent arm and a rested bullpen. The Nationals bullpen has performed better than people think and is in a good rest spot. You factor in some sideways wind and two lackluster offenses; this total is too high.

We are 1-0 on Corbin’s unders. In six starts, the under has hit in four of them with Corbin on the mound. He’s twice faced teams like the Dodgers, and the game still went under. Now, he gets the Blue Jays, who are not nearly as impressive an offense.

I like the Blue Jays offense against left-handed pitching, but not that much. Over the entire season, they sit with a 105 wRC+, good for 12th in the league. They should put up some runs today; I don’t see them blowing it open.

They rank in the bottom half in power metrics but walk a lot, which is good for raising your wRC+. One of Corbin’s few fine qualities is his ability to limit the walks at a league-average rate.

The Blue Jays offense has scored six runs just once this year. While they may hit Corbin, they can’t hit a right-handed pitcher. The Nationals bullpen sneakily ranks 16th in ERA, and it’s all right-handers. Even if Corbin allows four runs in five innings, I can see the runs stopping quickly in the later innings for them.

Yusei Kikuchi will line up for the Blue Jays. He has been fantastic, posting a 2.97 ERA and 2.94 xERA. He has had many strikeouts and no walks and keeps the ball on the ground at an above-average rate. He’s facing a reeling Nationals lineup.

Joey Meneses is 1 for his last 19.
Jesse Winker is 4 for his last 36.
Keibert Ruiz is 1 for his last 31.
Eddie Rosario is 0 for his last 26.

— Mark Zuckerman (@MarkZuckerman) May 2, 2024

The thick of the Nationals lineup has run cold. They also have an 81 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season compared to a 97 wRC+ versus right-handers. We get them in their worst split when they are struggling offensively.

Although the Blue Jays’ bullpen has struggled this season, it is currently the most well-rested bullpen in the league. Nobody went yesterday, and only three middle relievers went the day before. Everyone is ready to go.

I like the Blue Jays to win this game, but I have difficulty accepting this enormous price with a team I’m lower on than the market. The under has hit in nine of the Nationals’ last 15 home games, and I think we get another sleepy under here.

The Pick: Under 9 Runs (-115) Risk 1.15 Units

Miami Marlins vs. Oakland A’s @ 9:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Ryan Weathers vs. JP Sears

The Marlins are facing a left-handed pitcher, so it’s time to fade them. The Marlins have only one win this season under their belt when facing a left-handed pitcher.

THEY ONLY HAVE ONE WIN. IT’S MAY 3.

This write-up will be short because we must fade them against left-handed pitchers. Their 63 wRC+ against left-handed pitching is good for the second-worst in the league. They even scored seven runs off Corbin and still lost because the bullpen is a disaster.

Six of Miami’s eight relief pitchers have thrown 23 pitches or more over the last three days. They had multiple extra-inning games over a three-game set, which has wiped out the bullpen.

The Marlins also have to travel across the country without an off-day. This is a bad spot for a bad team.

JP Sears isn’t great, but he’s a left-hander. He has a better xERA than Ryan Weathers, which is enough for me. He won’t dominate by any stretch, but he’ll keep us in this ball game.

We see a massive advantage once we get to the A’s bullpen. The baseball world is starting to learn about the two-headed monster the A’s have back there with Lucas Erceg and Mason Miller. Austin Adams and TJ McFarland are also solid arms, and everyone is rested after yesterday’s off day.

The A’s are also in their worst split, putting up an 88 wRC+ against lefties, and I’m not a fan of Sears, but I’m a massive fan of fading the Marlins. That’s why I limited it to a risk of only one unit, but one unit must be played.

The Pick: Oakland A’s ML (-130) Risk 1 Unit

Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Charlie Morton vs. Gavin Stone

It’s the game of the day! It’s the series of the weekend! Let’s bet on Game 1.

I knew who I would be on as soon as I saw this line. The Dodgers bats are red-hot, and the Braves bats are not. That can be the difference in a series between two of baseball’s best teams.

Over the entire season, the Dodgers offense has been objectively better. They rank number one against right-handers in wRC+, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and SLG. They got on base and hit for power. They are the best lineup in baseball, and they are in their preferred split against right-handers.

The Braves have a top-five offense against righties. They are better against left-handed starters (115 wRC+ vs. RHP, 123 wRC+ vs. LHP). We get them in their lesser split here. They are great overall, but they’ve been lackluster lately.

The Dodgers have ranked first against righties in every metric in the last two weeks. Shocker, they are on a heater offensively.

The Braves’ 71 wRC+ places them 27th in the league. It’s shocking as Acuna looks entirely off. That big of an offense discrepancy has me immediately looking at the Dodgers.

Charlie Morton is a better pitcher than Gavin Stone, but Stone is starting to find it. He had a few rough starts to begin his second season, but he pitched well against the Padres, got pulled for command issues against the Mets, and then came back and dominated the Blue Jays.

It’s tough to barrel Stone. He sits in the 82nd percentile (fantastic) in Barrel% and Hard-Hit Rate. As long as he doesn’t walk the world, he should be able to limit damage against a Braves offense that isn’t seeing the ball as well as usual. He has a lower walk prop than Morton, so if Stone wins the free pass battle, we should cruise.

Morton is the better pitcher in this matchup, but he has the tougher matchup, and the Dodgers have hit him hard.

Morton has logged 182 PA against the Dodgers’ current roster, posting a .343 xwOBA and a strikeout rate below 20%. Mookie Betts is 13-39, and Freddie Freeman is 10-20. Between them, they have nine extra-base hits, four of which are home runs.

Will Smith is 2-14, but he has a .403 xwOBA because he crushes Morton, but the ball has been caught in a small sample. I bet he gets one to land today with how hot he is.

Morton has a 4.22 ERA in four starts at Dodger Stadium, but he’s never faced a Dodgers offense that was this good.

I don’t see an edge in the bullpens. The Braves and Dodgers are rested, and their bullpen ERAs are similar. I think the Dodgers will win in the later innings and early with how hot the offense is.

We also have a robust system backing the Dodgers. You take the favorite when two teams play each other with a 60% win rate or higher. The Dodgers fit these criteria, and those teams are 137-66, good for a 17% ROI. That system is 11-7 this season for a 9% ROI.

The Dodgers are the hotter team, and while they had a long road trip, they had a day off to adjust yesterday. Take the home team to get the job done.

The Pick: Dodgers ML (-110) Risk 1.1 Units

The post MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for Friday, May 3, 2024, appeared first on Just Baseball.