MLB Player Props (May 9): Back Run-Producing Brewers Willy Adames
Grant White
Host · Writer
It’s the calm before the storm, as we have only seven MLB games to look forward to on Thursday before ramping back up on Friday. Still, we’re running through the SportsGrid MLB Player Props, identifying the pre-eminent plus-money wagers that yield a long-term advantage for bettors.
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Pablo Lopez – Under 7.5 Ks (+102)
The Minnesota Twins conclude their four-game set versus the Seattle Mariners with Thursday’s matinee. Minnesota trots out Pablo Lopez to the mound for the finale amid his slow start to the season. Unfortunately for Lopez, we don’t see that changing against the M’s.
Through seven starts, Lopez has a slightly inflated 4.30 ERA; however, the more concerning trend has been his inability to pitch deep into games. The 26-year-old has gone 6.0 or more innings just twice over his past six starts. Moreover, Lopez has fallen below 7.5 strikeouts in five of his seven starts this season.
The more concerning trend lies in some of Lopez’s underlying analytics. We’ve seen a sharp decline in his chase rate year-over-year, with Lopez coming in at 28.3% early in 2024 compared to 34.3% last year. That correlates with a rise in his hard-hit rate as the Twins ace has fallen into the 26th percentile with a 43.8% rating.
Opposing hitters have adapted to Lopez’s offerings, and it’s taking a toll on his analytics and traditional stats. The hard-throwing righty isn’t tempting batters to look out of the zone, resulting in more hard-hit balls. Consequently, he’s not pitching deep into games, making it challenging to exceed his strikeout props. We expect Lopez to fall into similar traps against the Mariners and stay beneath 7.5 Ks.
Willy Adames – To Record an RBI (+145)
Low-key, Willy Adames remains one of the most underappreciated shortstops in the game. The Milwaukee Brewers middle infielder had 98 RBI in his first full season in the Cream City, following that up with last year’s 80 RBI effort. Adames is back on the productive track in 2024, totaling 25 RBI through his first 36 games of the season. He’s poised to improve on that lofty benchmark Thursday against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Adames enters tonight’s intra-divisional showdown on a modest three-game hitting streak. Still, he already has six hits in seven games this month, leading to sustained run production in the heart of the Brewers’ order. The former top-rated prospect already has eight RBI while coming around to score five more. In reconciling his current form with underlying metrics, bettors should expect sustained production.
The Brewers shortstop remains below his expected slugging percentage, implying ongoing success at the plate is anticipated. Further, he’s reserved his best efforts for American Family Field. Adames has put together an MVP-worthy 1.054 OPS at home this season, accounting for 13 of his 25 RBI in half the at-bats.
At +480, it’s a tempting proposition to back Adames in the home run prop market. But our preferred entry point with the Brewers’ slugger is to back him to record an RBI. Surrounded by top-end talent, Adames will have plenty of opportunities to drive in a run on Thursday night. And that’s a bet we’re making at +145 or better.
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