MLB Player Props (September 2): Bet on These Plus-Money Wagers
Grant White
Host · Writer
We have a robust 11-game slate to look forward to on Labor Day, featuring a handful of day games. As usual, we’ve combed through the SportsGrid MLB Player Props, identifying the pre-eminent plus-money wagers that yield a long-term advantage for bettors.
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Francisco Lindor – To Record an RBI (+170)
The New York Mets head into the final month of the regular season on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. They can bolster their playoff hopes in Monday’s series opener against the Boston Red Sox and count on Francisco Lindor to lead the charge.
Lindor is one of the hottest hitters in the MLB right now, but there’s even more room to grow. The Mets shortstop is riding a 12-game hitting streak into Monday’s inter-league affair, recording a hit in all but one of his last 25 games. Over that 25-game stretch, Lindor has totaled 36 hits, including 17 of the extra-base variety and 16 RBI. Still, we’re anticipating sustained production from the three-time Silver Slugger.
Heading into tonight’s contest against the Red Sox, Lindor is operating well below expected levels. The 30-year-old is nearly 50 points below his expected slugging percentage and 15 points off his expected batting average. He continues to generate elite power, ranking in the 89th percentile in barrel rate and 86th percentile in hard-hit percentage. Surely, those metrics will continue to trend upwards versus Brayan Bello.
The Red Sox’s probable starter is a prime regression candidate. Bello wrapped up the month of August with an unimpeachable 3.00 ERA, including an eight-inning shutout effort last time out. That’s a substantial deviation from his expected ERA of 4.35, placing him in the 35th percentile among all MLB pitchers.
Tonight’s showdown is an ideal spot to back Lindor to record an RBI. His .570 slugging percentage over the past month is a solid indicator of his current form, and Bello doesn’t possess the repertoire to slow him down. We’re backing the Mets slugger to continue his upward trajectory and drive in a run on Monday night.
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Eugenio Suarez – To Record an RBI (+200)
After imploding in the first two games of the series, the Arizona Diamondbacks desperately need to claim victory on Monday to earn a split of their four-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. There’s been no shortage of runs through the series’ first three games, and Eugenio Suarez will do his part to continue that trend on Monday.
Scoring has been plentiful in this crucial NL West showdown. All three games have soared over the total, with an average of 16.7 runs per game, with Arizona responsible for 9.7. Suarez has been a primary contributor, accounting for six RBI and three runs scored. The hard-hitting third baseman will have a chance to add to that tally against Jack Flaherty.
In addition to his elite form, Suarez mashes the ball versus righties. His slugging percentage jumps 50 points off conventional arms, representing 39 of his 49 extra-base hits and 65 of his 85 RBI. Moreover, Suarez ratchets his metrics higher at home, posting a .491 slugging percentage and superior run production analytics.
A prized acquisition at the MLB trade deadline, Flaherty has struggled to sustain his form with the Dodgers. He’s allowing a 30.0% increase in baserunners, with his WHIP jumping from 0.97 pre-trade to 1.27 with his new team. Predictably, this has precipitated a rise in his ERA, increasing by over half a run in LA.
Flaherty is a fastball pitcher, throwing his four-seamer 43.4% of the time and inducing a lackluster .495 expected slugging percentage. That plays into Suarez’s strengths as a hitter, with the D-Backs infielder slugging .470 off of heaters.
The current betting price doesn’t reflect Suarez’s probability of driving in a run on Monday, making this our preferred value play. Getting on this wager early ensures bettors get the best of the number. But +200 or better is our preferred entry point.
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