MLB · 1 year ago

Orioles vs. Rockies Predictions | MLB Picks Today, Best Bets

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Orioles vs. Rockies Predictions | MLB Picks Today, Best Bets

Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies @ 8:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Albert Suarez (3.18 ERA) vs. Austin Gomber (4.70 ERA)

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I’m pulling back the curtain on this. I broke down every game like usual and wrote down the Rockies as a play I would be on. I thought waiting would be a good idea because I saw a colossal amount of money on the Orioles. After I finished up the games, I went to bet the Rockies at +140, and as I was placing it, it plummeted to +125. That price was still in my range to bet it, but that was pretty wild, so I wanted to share—tons of reverse line movement.

That reverse line move didn’t happen for no reason. We must back the lowly Rockies in this spot against the Orioles. Scary, I know, but historically, this is the best spot the Rockies could have. They got to play four straight games at home and are entirely used to the altitude. Not only do the Orioles rarely play at Coors Field, they won’t have an off-day to adjust.

The Rockies, playing a team out of the division at home when the team made the playoffs last year, are 49-33 with a 60% win percentage and a 27% ROI. That’s absurd, and they are almost always underdogs in spots like these. Based on that system alone, it’s nearly an autoplay on Colorado.

There are so many more systems. In Game 1 of the series, where a team is traveling into Coors Field, the Rockies are 274-224 (55%), and just this season, they are 13-7 in these spots for a 57% ROI.

This is the spot to take the Rockies blindly. However, we don’t take systems blindly here. They have to make sense, and they do here.

The Orioles have the third-best wRC+ against lefties this season. However, they last had Jordan Westburg a while ago, and Ryan Mountcastle just hit the IL. Those are two righties that excel against left-handers. Since August began, the Orioles have a 107 wRC+ and a .725 OPS, which ranks outside the top ten. Over the last two weeks, they have a .654 OPS and an 87 wRC+, which ranks 18th and 19th, respectively.

Is Austin Gomber any good? Not really, but he’s been better at Coors than on the road (4.42 ERA vs. 4.89 ERA), and he’s been much better in night games (3.90 ERA vs. 5.98 ERA). We’ll have to pitch around Austin Slater as he has a ton of success against Gomber, but the other righties he’s seen, Emmanuel Rivera and James McCann, are a combined 2-12 against Gomber. The rest of the lineup hasn’t seen him, so it will primarily be young hitters with little to no experience at Coors facing a pitcher for the first time. I see the Orioles lineup struggling today relative to expectations.

The Rockies can hit righties at home, and the last time Albert Suarez pitched in Coors Field was in 2017. Over the previous two weeks against righties at home, Colorado has an incredible .874 OPS, ranking fourth in the league. Since August began, they have had a .816 OPS. Over the entire season, they have a .781 OPS, the fifth-best in the game.

The Rockies bullpen is terrible, and I’m not sugarcoating here. Since July 1, they have had a 5.50 ERA, and since August 1, they have had a 5.90 ERA. I was going to go for the first five, but the Orioles bullpen is almost as bad, and they don’t have the excuse for playing at altitude. Since July 1, the Orioles have a 4.74 ERA, ranking 25th. Since August 1, they have a 4.64 ERA, ranking 21st. Good luck at altitude after a hard-fought series against the Dodgers.

I priced the Rockies at +105. Based on value, this should be a more significant play, but the Rockies are an awful team, so variance has to be factored in. All that to say, I’m playing the Rockies down to +115.