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Pirates vs. Cubs | MLB Picks Today, Best Bets

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Pirates vs. Cubs | MLB Picks Today, Best Bets

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs @ 7:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Jared Jones (3.88 ERA) vs. Jameson Taillon (3.85 ERA)

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The Cubs offense is too hot to have a 3.5-team total. The wind blowing in at Wrigley will hurt the offense, but the wind won’t keep me off the Cubs bats today. I prefer to take Jameson Taillon out of the equation and focus on the Cubs’ prolific offense lately.

The Cubs have put up 99 runs in a ten-game span. That’s the most in a ten-game span since 2010 and the second most since 1970. We are reaching historically hot levels of offense, and recently, they’ve taken the number one spot over the Diamondbacks, who have been the hottest team in baseball.

Over the last two weeks against right-handed pitching. The Cubs have a 144 wRC+, 9% better than the second-place Diamondbacks and 44% better than the league average offense. They haven’t been quite as good against lefties, putting up a 112 wRC+, so we get them in their preferred split in this hot stretch.

Jared Jones’s last start was against these Cubs’ where he allowed five earned runs. I think Jones is a tad overrated. He racks up strikeouts, but the Cubs haven’t been striking out lately. He’s mainly a two-pitch guy, relying on his four-seam and slider for 86% of his pitch mix. His fastball has a .356 xwOBA against it, so regression is coming for his heater.

Typically, I’ll lean towards the pitcher to make an adjustment after facing an offense recently, but this is also his second start since returning from an injury. I don’t know how he makes an adjustment here.

Even if Jones is adequate, we get to tee off this Pirates bullpen, which is a bottom-three unit in baseball. Jones has a 15.5-outs line juiced towards the under, as it’s expected the Pirates will limit the young pitcher’s workload.

We should get three or more innings against this bullpen, and I don’t trust any of the arms they’ll bring in. I also expect the Cubs to get the lead off Jones, so they’ll be even less inclined to throw their better arms.

Wind is the only factor that would make me nervous in this game. It will be blowing in 10 MPH from center field, but the Cubs haven’t been relying on the home run anyway.

They can hit it out of the park, but they’ve been scoring by taking walks and everyone doing their part to drive them home. Jones’s walk rate is average, and the Cubs aren’t striking out, so we should see base runners consistently early and late. Four runs should be attainable, even with the wind blowing in.